tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10815380.post4041782314773600499..comments2024-03-14T12:42:51.995+00:00Comments on Chris Whiteside's Blog: Of Referenda and Railway timetablesChris Whitesidehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02888720969479013951noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10815380.post-84036771088524230982015-10-14T22:33:33.821+01:002015-10-14T22:33:33.821+01:00Don't agree that NO2AV was unlosable - I think...Don't agree that NO2AV was unlosable - I think it was the pro-AV side's referendum to lose and if the people running the pro-AV campaign hadn't blown it I think they would have won.<br /><br />Accept your point that unless the Electoral Commission change their mind a second time it will be Leave versus remain rather than In versus Out.<br /><br />Not keen on a two-referendum solution, partly because I think the electorate will hate it. My guess is that they will expect both sides to give them a clear plan of what happens if they vote for that side with no further referenda.<br /><br />If one side gives them such a clear plan, and the other fails to do so, then my money is going to be on the side which manages to clearly explain to people exactly what a tick in their box means they are voting for. In my experience voters hate uncertainty.<br />Chris Whitesidehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02888720969479013951noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10815380.post-66606364817112548642015-10-13T17:23:28.461+01:002015-10-13T17:23:28.461+01:00It was always going to be difficult for me not to ...It was always going to be difficult for me not to respond to the 2 most recent pieces (this one and the next one) I was going to reply to only one of them, however, I think there is a lot of ground to cover in them both, so I think it better I reply to the points raised in both seperatly.<br /><br />So, <b>"pre-judging the results of David Cameron's re-negotiation of British EU membership in advance of the EU Referendum."</b><br />well, yes, that is true and its a fair point, we do, but why? well the answer to that is DC has no wiggle room left. He needs to call a referendum before the end of 2017, yet the only way for any treaty change to take plece before then is to use the simplified procedure of Article 48, though that is not on the cards. So now what? well Really from Junkers much ignored (at least by the legacy media) "state of the Union" speech we know that there is a treaty change in the air, its one that is to be a fiscal type treaty to further integrate the Eurozone, but where does that leave the none EZ9, well it would leave us on the outer circle of a 2 tier EU, in a position of "Associated membership", thus we have the outer core and the Inner core Eurozone, the inner pushing much harder for continued integration, leaving the outer core on the "slow train" to ever closer union, but this will require a full blown treaty change, which will go through IGC first, ending around the summer of 2017, thus allowing DC to state his intention to negotiate "his deal" which of course will be a push to allow the public to allow him to negotiate the future terms of the new treaty. Promising a second referendum to ratify it or not. So we can see from this the date of the 2017 Referendum, its autumn 2017 (no earlier as the Legacy media, cant seem to grasp). We are pre-judging as he has no room for anything else, you note his recently announced 4 key points? remind you of anything yet?<br /><br /><b>Apparently there is a bit more to it than that. Electoral Commission rules appear to have forced people who would have likely to see what came out of the negotiation before condemning it to come off the fence now.</b><br />Not quite, there is more to it than that as well. the likes of Matt Elliot and co are pushing to build up a database of "LEAVE" voters (that is a subtle reminder this is a LEAVE/REMAIN referendum not a YES/NO or IN/OUT one it is LEAVE/REMAIN. The campaign to leave will be called the LEAVE campaign.) Anyway this database will be of enormous value to the owner, and will earn a lot of money come the second referendum, that is why Elliot is so desperate to get his mits on it. Yes that's the same Matthew Elliot who almost lost the un-losable NO2AV campaign and needed to be bailed out by the PM.<br /><br /><b>"Rather than being assessed on their own merits, each of the concessions he secures will be cheered by one side and howled down by the other without any regard to their actual merit."</b><br /><br />well to be honest there is only one concession, the EU not to be a supranational organisation, (do a wiki serch for <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supranational_union" rel="nofollow">Supranation Union</a> and you see the example given. However to end that would be a bit like joining an angling club and trying to reform it from within to stop fishing. The best and most honorable thing to do for all parties if that is your intent, is in fact to leave the club, wishing it and its members all the best for the future as you head for the door.Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00373005279697295131noreply@blogger.com