tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10815380.post542139506415798734..comments2024-03-14T12:42:51.995+00:00Comments on Chris Whiteside's Blog: Referendum Bill clears House of CommonsChris Whitesidehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02888720969479013951noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10815380.post-51206084193497903392013-12-03T17:27:23.638+00:002013-12-03T17:27:23.638+00:00By the way, its also not a requirement whichever w...By the way, its also not a requirement whichever way the referendum goes. its just a requirement that an In/Out referendum is held before the end of 2017 on a "reformed - see above - EU"<br /><br />In the event of a non-tory government after the next general election then you may choose to call off the "Xmas turkey 2017 bet"<br /><br />Would you accept this deal, following of course independent person to agree final terms if you like, Ball is in your court Chris :o)Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00373005279697295131noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10815380.post-76622375709018194032013-12-03T16:34:07.561+00:002013-12-03T16:34:07.561+00:00wow, never seen goal post move so fast. I don'...wow, never seen goal post move so fast. I don't remember mentioning a "significant improvement" - said a treaty change. this could be by amending a previous treaty, but is normally done by a new treaty which in turn amends TEU and TFEU, but there is my offer.<br /><br />I mentioned real reform, and the only way this could be so is to ammend TEFU and TEU, to do so requires a ratified treaty before the end of 2017. my reasoning is anything that can be part of a deal, without a treaty change, can also be reversed later without a treaty change, thus its meaningless. if a treaty change takes place, we see that it takes a ratified treaty to undo this, for which of course you need all 28 SOVEREIGN COUNTRIES, (oh sorry did I say the C word :o), instead of member states) to ratify it or it has no effect, and of course the UK has a Veto, so it cant be undone unless we agree to it. ***Of course we should also maintain the referendum lock after this, this is in stars as its not required for the bet***<br /><br />By all means seek an independent person to negotiate the deal, but i am just giving him/her a head start on that which i mean.<br /><br />By the way to keep it realistic, if there is a ratified treaty which amends TEU <b>OR</b> TEFU (i will settle for one or the other does not need to be both) then i personally will buy your family a prize Xmas turkey for Xmas 2017.<br /><br />You seem confident that "meaningful reform" is quite possible within the time frame, rather than i put it earlier "a faux negotiation" so there you go, should be a sure fire way towards a slap up Xmas dinner to help your family celebrate it.Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00373005279697295131noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10815380.post-5510578220272681122013-12-02T23:17:31.426+00:002013-12-02T23:17:31.426+00:00We might have to try to find a neutral arbiter to...We might have to try to find a neutral arbiter to rule on what constitutes a significant improvement. <br /><br />I would say the odds are two to one that that if DC is still Prime Minister by the end of 2017 he will be able to negotiate a significant return of powers by the end of that time.Chris Whitesidehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02888720969479013951noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10815380.post-16104998983911347032013-12-02T19:49:11.791+00:002013-12-02T19:49:11.791+00:00Remember your bet that the world would not end in ...Remember your bet that the world would not end in 2012 - the offer that sadly I could not accept?<br /><br />Well what sort of odds are you going that DC will manage a substantial treaty change before 2017 is over and done? - I may take you up on this one.Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00373005279697295131noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10815380.post-70332966503387994152013-12-01T21:48:02.338+00:002013-12-01T21:48:02.338+00:00I don't rule out the possibility that you'...I don't rule out the possibility that you're right to regard the timing as optimistic, but I really don't think that even if that is correct the reason is as machiavellian as that.<br /><br />I think DC wants to set a target for renegotiation that isn't preposterously slow and believes that he can get a deal by the next UK presidency in 2017.<br /><br />And I think he's probably right about that. Chris Whitesidehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02888720969479013951noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10815380.post-1261455431185312592013-12-01T21:29:07.317+00:002013-12-01T21:29:07.317+00:00This one has had me wondering, why the push for th...This one has had me wondering, why the push for the 2017 date?<br /><br />Knowing that for any reform of any meaning, especially as immigration.seems.top of the list at the moment would require a major treaty change. Which in turn needs.a convention (1 year) then an IGC (2 years), and knowing that the elections.of.the parliament and commission won't allow a convention until 2015. Thus 2015 + 1 + 2 = 2018 at the earliest. Then why this push for 2017?<br /><br />I am too cynical to think that there is an error in the tinkling made by the current government so the must be a reason for this 2017.<br /><br />It turns out the latter half of 2017 is the next time the UK hold the 6 month rotating chair of the EU council. Thus they will appear as right at the heart of the EU, and having a lot of weight in deciding EU policy, during the latter half of 2017.<br /><br />So it seems to me we would be looking at a faux negotiation + FUD (an IBM term) + being seen as at the heart of the EU + status quo,<br /><br />This I can only conclude is the plan, a blatant attempt at pushing through an in vote, without ever needing a true EU reform. Snacking the UK to the EU as is for another 40 years (that is if the EU lasts that long). Shame if I am right, don't like being shackled to "little Europe" the UK should go back to its position as a global player.Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00373005279697295131noreply@blogger.com