I have just had a letter from St Albans City & District Council advising me of the death on Tuesday of Councillor Gordon Myland, with whom my experience of working together on that council goes back more than 25 years.
I had my agreements and disagreements with "The Gnome" as he was sometimes nicknamed - boy, did I have my disagreements with him at times - but he worked extremely hard for the people of first Clarence ward and then Bricket Wood and Chiswell Green. He was an effective and very loud voice for the people of Clarence and then St Stephens. He also worked hard for the district as a whole, particularly as Mayor of the City and District in 2004/5, and took an active role in several other parts of the district's life besides that of the council - for example, he was involved with the local Morris Men.
I won't say St Albans could ever really be a boring place, but St Albans Council will certainly be more boring without Gordon.
Rest in Peace.
Thursday, March 06, 2014
Quote of the day 6th March 2014
"The biggest danger to the European Union comes not from those who advocate change, but from those who denounce new thinking as heresy. In its' long history Europe has experience of heretics who turned out to have a point."
(David Cameron)
(David Cameron)
Wednesday, March 05, 2014
Quote of the day 5th March 2014
"It is not enough to win a war: it is necessary to organise the peace"
(Aristotle)
(Aristotle)
Tuesday, March 04, 2014
Rory Stewart MP writes on Preserving the Union
Rory Stewart, MP for Penrith and the Borders, has written and circulated a piece on preserving the Union. Here is an extract from what he had to say.
"On 19 September we could wake up and find that Scotland has separated. That the United Kingdom as we have known it for four hundred years, has vanished. That a third of the land mass of Britain has broken apart. That anyone going to Scotland – on holiday or to see a relative – will be entering a separate country. Officials will be racing north and south to negotiate the terms of the separation: working out what to do with the Nuclear Submarines in Scotland, with the national electric grid, with currency and passports. Anyone with mixed English or Scottish blood will have to choose a single new identity, and reject a part of their previous identity. Scots in England will have to decide either to return “home”, to try to engage in the very difficult and uncertain task of launching a new much smaller, country; or to make a new life in England – as an immigrant in a foreign country.
Why has there not yet been a mass demonstration of support for the Union? Our population has never been so educated, long-lived, confident, well-travelled, or well-informed. We are concerned with poverty in Africa, nuclear power, the environment, the welfare state, and super-fast broadband. A change to the Lobbying bill, or a threat to the Public Forest estate can fill an MP’s inbox with thousands of emails. A proposal to build a wind-turbine can bring a hundred people in an instant onto a windy moor in the rain. A million people demonstrated against the Iraq war; more demonstrated against the hunting ban. Voters are rarely shy to say what their values are, or what they want for the United Kingdom. So why is there so little energy in saving the United Kingdom itself?
If a state tried to secede from the United States, the reaction would be beyond imagining. Even in gentle understated Canada, hundreds of thousands of Canadians from outside Quebec, rallied before the referendum to plead with Quebec to stay. You might expect every major British public figure – editor, writer, film-maker, actor, scientist, sports person, and historian– to make their own passionate and sincere arguments for why they care about Britain. But they aren’t.
It is tempting to blame apathy; but I suspect the problem is our identity. In most of Europe, nationalists worked to simplify their identities: invented new governments and reintroduced old languages, moved borders and then populations to eliminate diversity. Mixed territories – the Austro-Hungarian Empire, or much more recently Yugoslavia – were broken into smaller ‘nation-states.’ The idea was to ensure that someone, who might once have been simultaneously German, Czech, Czecho-Slovak, and Austro-Hungarian, became “simply” Czech.
But here it was different. The United Kingdom is the result of centuries of shared institutions, language and culture. It is the deep grammar behind our lives, our dreams and our actions. It is the context of our democracy, and the framework of all our government. Soldiers sign up to serve – and if necessary die for – the United Kingdom. When we vote in a general election we are choosing people to represent the United Kingdom; that is what the Prime Minister and Queen and the BBC are representing. The United Kingdom is the definition of what our nation is about, and who we are. The United Kingdom is precisely what we have – for more than three hundred years – been working to improve and preserve. After so many centuries it is very difficult to imagine what our identity would be without it. But none of this makes the United Kingdom any easier to understand.
The United Kingdom is a system in which a single state and monarch contains four different nations. We feel proudly English, or Scottish and also British, in different bewildering combinations. We have the same national broadcaster but separate legal systems. We compete against each other in Rugby but alongside each other in the Olympics. Cumbrians sometimes talk about Britain, sometimes about the United Kingdom, sometimes about England. We have forged an identity, which is contradictory, complicated – including both the Shetlands and London, where sixty per cent of people were not born in the United Kingdom – and sometimes almost invisible.
But that complexity is not something to try to deny, or “simplify”. It is something we should embrace. Not through pompous pieties. Or faking a rainbow community. We need different voices – poets, musicians, sports-people and community groups, from both sides of the border: people who – unlike politicians – are capable of being passionate about our predicament, and funny too. We should be able to be outrageous, even rude to each other, without denying our future together. We should revel in the complications, the oddities of our borders, and the contradictory names we give our islands. We can hate each other on the sports pitch but still want to keep each other. We – England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland – experience this tension, muddle, discord, and love, precisely because we are a family. We should not just abandon that 400 year old relationship, just because it’s not “simple”. We have never been simple people. And that is the strength of the United Kingdom, in a world that isn’t simple either
"On 19 September we could wake up and find that Scotland has separated. That the United Kingdom as we have known it for four hundred years, has vanished. That a third of the land mass of Britain has broken apart. That anyone going to Scotland – on holiday or to see a relative – will be entering a separate country. Officials will be racing north and south to negotiate the terms of the separation: working out what to do with the Nuclear Submarines in Scotland, with the national electric grid, with currency and passports. Anyone with mixed English or Scottish blood will have to choose a single new identity, and reject a part of their previous identity. Scots in England will have to decide either to return “home”, to try to engage in the very difficult and uncertain task of launching a new much smaller, country; or to make a new life in England – as an immigrant in a foreign country.
Why has there not yet been a mass demonstration of support for the Union? Our population has never been so educated, long-lived, confident, well-travelled, or well-informed. We are concerned with poverty in Africa, nuclear power, the environment, the welfare state, and super-fast broadband. A change to the Lobbying bill, or a threat to the Public Forest estate can fill an MP’s inbox with thousands of emails. A proposal to build a wind-turbine can bring a hundred people in an instant onto a windy moor in the rain. A million people demonstrated against the Iraq war; more demonstrated against the hunting ban. Voters are rarely shy to say what their values are, or what they want for the United Kingdom. So why is there so little energy in saving the United Kingdom itself?
If a state tried to secede from the United States, the reaction would be beyond imagining. Even in gentle understated Canada, hundreds of thousands of Canadians from outside Quebec, rallied before the referendum to plead with Quebec to stay. You might expect every major British public figure – editor, writer, film-maker, actor, scientist, sports person, and historian– to make their own passionate and sincere arguments for why they care about Britain. But they aren’t.
It is tempting to blame apathy; but I suspect the problem is our identity. In most of Europe, nationalists worked to simplify their identities: invented new governments and reintroduced old languages, moved borders and then populations to eliminate diversity. Mixed territories – the Austro-Hungarian Empire, or much more recently Yugoslavia – were broken into smaller ‘nation-states.’ The idea was to ensure that someone, who might once have been simultaneously German, Czech, Czecho-Slovak, and Austro-Hungarian, became “simply” Czech.
But here it was different. The United Kingdom is the result of centuries of shared institutions, language and culture. It is the deep grammar behind our lives, our dreams and our actions. It is the context of our democracy, and the framework of all our government. Soldiers sign up to serve – and if necessary die for – the United Kingdom. When we vote in a general election we are choosing people to represent the United Kingdom; that is what the Prime Minister and Queen and the BBC are representing. The United Kingdom is the definition of what our nation is about, and who we are. The United Kingdom is precisely what we have – for more than three hundred years – been working to improve and preserve. After so many centuries it is very difficult to imagine what our identity would be without it. But none of this makes the United Kingdom any easier to understand.
The United Kingdom is a system in which a single state and monarch contains four different nations. We feel proudly English, or Scottish and also British, in different bewildering combinations. We have the same national broadcaster but separate legal systems. We compete against each other in Rugby but alongside each other in the Olympics. Cumbrians sometimes talk about Britain, sometimes about the United Kingdom, sometimes about England. We have forged an identity, which is contradictory, complicated – including both the Shetlands and London, where sixty per cent of people were not born in the United Kingdom – and sometimes almost invisible.
But that complexity is not something to try to deny, or “simplify”. It is something we should embrace. Not through pompous pieties. Or faking a rainbow community. We need different voices – poets, musicians, sports-people and community groups, from both sides of the border: people who – unlike politicians – are capable of being passionate about our predicament, and funny too. We should be able to be outrageous, even rude to each other, without denying our future together. We should revel in the complications, the oddities of our borders, and the contradictory names we give our islands. We can hate each other on the sports pitch but still want to keep each other. We – England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland – experience this tension, muddle, discord, and love, precisely because we are a family. We should not just abandon that 400 year old relationship, just because it’s not “simple”. We have never been simple people. And that is the strength of the United Kingdom, in a world that isn’t simple either
Breaking ranks with Putin
The people of Ukrainse should be allowed to settle their own destiny at the ballot box without military intervention from any quarter. I don't believe it would do any good for the people of Ukraine if the West were to attempt to intervene militarily, and I don't believe that any reasonable person could take anything the West has said as a threat to do so.
The EU has many faults which urgently need reform, but do I not believe any intelligent person who studies the situation for more than five minutes could take seriously the idea that the EU caused the present crisis in the Ukraine. Neither did Britain.
Only people who have an axe to grind against the EU are blaming Europe for this, and only people with an axe to grind against David Cameron or William Hague are blaming the UK government.
But the fact that starting World War Three is not a sensible response does not mean that we should not even express disapproval.
The delegation of Conservative MPs to the Council of Europe has suspended their membership of the European Democratic Group on the council - which also includes Putin's party - pending a motion for the council to sspend the Russian Federation from membership.
I don't see how Conservatives or representatives of any other democratic party can continue to sit in the same group as the United Russia party in present circumstances, so I think this was the right thing to do.
The EU has many faults which urgently need reform, but do I not believe any intelligent person who studies the situation for more than five minutes could take seriously the idea that the EU caused the present crisis in the Ukraine. Neither did Britain.
Only people who have an axe to grind against the EU are blaming Europe for this, and only people with an axe to grind against David Cameron or William Hague are blaming the UK government.
But the fact that starting World War Three is not a sensible response does not mean that we should not even express disapproval.
The delegation of Conservative MPs to the Council of Europe has suspended their membership of the European Democratic Group on the council - which also includes Putin's party - pending a motion for the council to sspend the Russian Federation from membership.
I don't see how Conservatives or representatives of any other democratic party can continue to sit in the same group as the United Russia party in present circumstances, so I think this was the right thing to do.
Quote of the day 4th March 2014
"Conservatives shouldn't sit side by side with autocrats"
(Paul Goodman, former MP and now executive editor of Conservative Home, in an article here published yesterday on why Conservative MPs should break ranks with Putin's party in the Council of Europe.)
(Paul Goodman, former MP and now executive editor of Conservative Home, in an article here published yesterday on why Conservative MPs should break ranks with Putin's party in the Council of Europe.)
Monday, March 03, 2014
To Tweet or not to tweet
Before he became prime minister David Cameron once said that "too many tweets make a twit" (or something similar).
So many people use Twitter now that I have found it an interesting means to look out for stories, indeed, for me it has overtaken Political Betting as my principle means to check what political stories people on the web are discussing.
However, the very short length allowed for the messages, and the chatty and immediate style makes it very easy for people to make a fool of themselves, especially of you don't realise what sort of audience may see what you post.
Yesterday I had an indication of how what you write may spread where you don't expect. I was tweeting about Labour's #Costacoffeecrisis, previously covered on this blog, and mentioned that my nearest Waitrose is 77 miles away. It happens to be in Hexham, so I included the fact.
I did not write anything derogatory about Hexham - I've never had a chance to stop there but from what I've seen when passing through on journeys from the West Cumbrian coat to Newcastle and back, it looks like a very attractive town - which is just as well because what I had written was retweeted in Hexham.
Just goes to show that whenever you write something on the net, including Facebook or Twitter, you have to assume the whole world might see it.
So many people use Twitter now that I have found it an interesting means to look out for stories, indeed, for me it has overtaken Political Betting as my principle means to check what political stories people on the web are discussing.
However, the very short length allowed for the messages, and the chatty and immediate style makes it very easy for people to make a fool of themselves, especially of you don't realise what sort of audience may see what you post.
Yesterday I had an indication of how what you write may spread where you don't expect. I was tweeting about Labour's #Costacoffeecrisis, previously covered on this blog, and mentioned that my nearest Waitrose is 77 miles away. It happens to be in Hexham, so I included the fact.
I did not write anything derogatory about Hexham - I've never had a chance to stop there but from what I've seen when passing through on journeys from the West Cumbrian coat to Newcastle and back, it looks like a very attractive town - which is just as well because what I had written was retweeted in Hexham.
Just goes to show that whenever you write something on the net, including Facebook or Twitter, you have to assume the whole world might see it.
Quote of the day 3rd March 2014
"Even if the government spends itself into bankruptcy and the economy still does not recover, the Keynesians can always say that it would have worked if only the government had spent more."
(Thomas Sowell)
For the avoidance of doubt, Sowell was not endorsing that course of action, and nor am I. Actually I suspect that in the majority of circumstances John Maynard Keynes would not support that kind of "Keynesianism" either, but some of his acolytes have not merely supported it but implemented it.
(Thomas Sowell)
For the avoidance of doubt, Sowell was not endorsing that course of action, and nor am I. Actually I suspect that in the majority of circumstances John Maynard Keynes would not support that kind of "Keynesianism" either, but some of his acolytes have not merely supported it but implemented it.
Sunday, March 02, 2014
Quote of the day 2nd March 2014
"We don't have a trillion-dollar debt because we havn't taxed enough: we have a trillion dollar debt because we spend too much."
(Ronald Reagan)
(Ronald Reagan)
Saturday, March 01, 2014
You couldn't make it up ...
The Spectator magazine reports here that Labour's shadow communities minister Andy Sawford has written to every MP with a local Waitrose asking them to campaign against the offer by Waitrose of free coffee to members of their myWaitrose loyalty scheme, something many people didn’t know about until Labour helpfully pointed it out.
My nearest Waitrose is in the Hexham area, some 77 miles away, or I would be tempted to join the scheme.
Labour's argument is that a few cups of free coffee will supposedly destroy the British High street.
With the country still stuggling to start clearing the mountain of debt they left us when last in power, huge challenges facing the NHS, large chunks of the country suffering from flooding, relations with Russia going to hell in a handcart thanks to the situation in Ukraine which has the potential to turn very nasty, have Labour really nothing more important to complain about than a few cups of free coffee.
I don't even accept the basic argument - the main threats to the High Street are the internet and the recession. Offering customers a cup of coffee might even help the high street if it makes shopping in person a better experience.
All too often Labour does things so daft you couldn't make them up if you were trying to imagine the most ridiculous policies for a party to adopt - and when they're not doing that, they're bankrupting the country so that whatever government is unlucky enough to have to clear up the mess Labour leaves behind is forced to do things nobody in their right mind would want to do in order to balance the books.
My nearest Waitrose is in the Hexham area, some 77 miles away, or I would be tempted to join the scheme.
Labour's argument is that a few cups of free coffee will supposedly destroy the British High street.
With the country still stuggling to start clearing the mountain of debt they left us when last in power, huge challenges facing the NHS, large chunks of the country suffering from flooding, relations with Russia going to hell in a handcart thanks to the situation in Ukraine which has the potential to turn very nasty, have Labour really nothing more important to complain about than a few cups of free coffee.
I don't even accept the basic argument - the main threats to the High Street are the internet and the recession. Offering customers a cup of coffee might even help the high street if it makes shopping in person a better experience.
All too often Labour does things so daft you couldn't make them up if you were trying to imagine the most ridiculous policies for a party to adopt - and when they're not doing that, they're bankrupting the country so that whatever government is unlucky enough to have to clear up the mess Labour leaves behind is forced to do things nobody in their right mind would want to do in order to balance the books.
Quote of the day 1st March 2014
"The government was set to protect man from criminals - and the constitution was written to protect man from the government."
(Ayn Rand)
(Ayn Rand)
Friday, February 28, 2014
Quote of the day 28th February 2014
"For the next three or four years, Germany and the UK look like being the main drivers of the EU economy. That is not a boast, it is an observation."
(Hamish MacRae, veteran economic commentator, writing in the Independent/I)
(Hamish MacRae, veteran economic commentator, writing in the Independent/I)
Thursday, February 27, 2014
Britain and Ukraine
In the past few weeks as we watch the bewildering pace of change in the Ukraine, I have been left hoping that it works out better for them than some recent revolutions have - although this one appears to be far better founded in a wish to respect the ballot box than some recent unheavals such as those in say, Egypt.
The destiny of Ukraine is for the people of Ukraine to decide and there is not a great deal which the UK can or should do about it, though that has not stopped a range of people putting forward all sorts of different and contradictory criticisms of the UK government.
I stopped reading one egregiously silly critique which suggested that Tory Euroscepticism was hampering Britain from adopting an effective policy on Ukraine when I reached the point where the writer suggested that almost any policy which annoyed Vladimir Putin was a good thing.
Now I have all manner of serious concerns about President Putin, but the idea of deliberately annoying him for the sake of it, as opposed to standing up to him when Britain's interests require it, is unbelievably childish and dangerous. It would be the geopolitical equivalent of throwing stones at a hornet's nest to see what happens.
Ukraine is potentially an immensely wealthy country with massive natural resources. If it could become a stable democratic state with good relations with both the EU and Russia, then Ukraine would be extremely valuable to both East and West as a trading partner, and as a bridge between the EU and Russia rather than something seen as a prize to be fought over between them.
But Britain does not have a huge amount of leverage in that part of Europe, and didn't even when the British Empire was the most powerful nation on Earth. Indeed, the fact that Britain and France invaded what is now the Eastern part of the Ukraine back then in what was possibly the most ghastly and mismanaged campaign our country ever fought prior to the 20th century, is still remembered and is one of the factors which is making British and EU relations with the Ukraine and Russia more difficult now.
We can encourage the Ukraine to move down the path to greater democracy, we can encourage both Ukraine and Russia not to see trade and friendship between the EU and Ukraine on the one hand, and Ukraine and Russia on the other, as mutually exclusive goals. We cannot do much more than this and should not pretend to ourselves or the world that we have more influence on this situation than we really have.
The destiny of Ukraine is for the people of Ukraine to decide and there is not a great deal which the UK can or should do about it, though that has not stopped a range of people putting forward all sorts of different and contradictory criticisms of the UK government.
I stopped reading one egregiously silly critique which suggested that Tory Euroscepticism was hampering Britain from adopting an effective policy on Ukraine when I reached the point where the writer suggested that almost any policy which annoyed Vladimir Putin was a good thing.
Now I have all manner of serious concerns about President Putin, but the idea of deliberately annoying him for the sake of it, as opposed to standing up to him when Britain's interests require it, is unbelievably childish and dangerous. It would be the geopolitical equivalent of throwing stones at a hornet's nest to see what happens.
Ukraine is potentially an immensely wealthy country with massive natural resources. If it could become a stable democratic state with good relations with both the EU and Russia, then Ukraine would be extremely valuable to both East and West as a trading partner, and as a bridge between the EU and Russia rather than something seen as a prize to be fought over between them.
But Britain does not have a huge amount of leverage in that part of Europe, and didn't even when the British Empire was the most powerful nation on Earth. Indeed, the fact that Britain and France invaded what is now the Eastern part of the Ukraine back then in what was possibly the most ghastly and mismanaged campaign our country ever fought prior to the 20th century, is still remembered and is one of the factors which is making British and EU relations with the Ukraine and Russia more difficult now.
We can encourage the Ukraine to move down the path to greater democracy, we can encourage both Ukraine and Russia not to see trade and friendship between the EU and Ukraine on the one hand, and Ukraine and Russia on the other, as mutually exclusive goals. We cannot do much more than this and should not pretend to ourselves or the world that we have more influence on this situation than we really have.
Britain and Germany
Hamish McRea, who has been an economics correspondent at various newspapers since I was a sixth former, has a good piece in yesterday's Independent and "i" about Britain and Germany.
He points out that for various reasons Britain and Germany are both doing a lot better economically than the rest of Europe, analyses the two countries' different strengths and suggests that both could benefit by learning from the other.
He also explains why it is vital for both Britain and Germany to foster economic reform in the EU and other European countries, that the two countries have a lot in common, and it is very important to both that we work together.
The "i" version is called "It's no good glowering at Germany" and the Independent version has the wordier title "Angela Merkel will be welcomed with full honours tomorrow and for good reason: our two countries need each other."
You can read the full article here.
He points out that for various reasons Britain and Germany are both doing a lot better economically than the rest of Europe, analyses the two countries' different strengths and suggests that both could benefit by learning from the other.
He also explains why it is vital for both Britain and Germany to foster economic reform in the EU and other European countries, that the two countries have a lot in common, and it is very important to both that we work together.
The "i" version is called "It's no good glowering at Germany" and the Independent version has the wordier title "Angela Merkel will be welcomed with full honours tomorrow and for good reason: our two countries need each other."
You can read the full article here.
Quote of the day 27th February 2014
"I owe all my success in life to always having been a quarter of an hour beforehand."
(Horatio Nelson)
(Horatio Nelson)
Wednesday, February 26, 2014
Quote of the day 26th February 2014
"Gentlemen, when the enemy is committed to a mistake we must not interrupt him too soon."
(Horatio Nelson)
(Horatio Nelson)
Tuesday, February 25, 2014
One law for one - and the same law for everyone else.
I was flabbergasted by the two-inch high banner headline in the News and Star today which said that no fewer than 40 officers of Cumbria constabulary had been arrested.
But when you actually read the article, it turned out to be saying that 44 arrests of police officers and support staff had been made by their colleagues over the four and a half year period from January 2008 to June 2013.
As there are about 1,100 police officers and 650 support staff in Cumbria Constabulary this represents an arrest rate of about half a percent per annum, and the rule that a person is innocent until proven guilty then applies - most of these arrests did not result in convictions or cautions.
The chairman of the local branch of the Police Federation put it very well when he said
"The public needs to know that complaints against police officers will be dealt with in the same way and with the same vigour as they would be with anyone else."
But when you actually read the article, it turned out to be saying that 44 arrests of police officers and support staff had been made by their colleagues over the four and a half year period from January 2008 to June 2013.
As there are about 1,100 police officers and 650 support staff in Cumbria Constabulary this represents an arrest rate of about half a percent per annum, and the rule that a person is innocent until proven guilty then applies - most of these arrests did not result in convictions or cautions.
The chairman of the local branch of the Police Federation put it very well when he said
"The public needs to know that complaints against police officers will be dealt with in the same way and with the same vigour as they would be with anyone else."
Quote of the day 25th February 2014
“The amount of violations of human rights in a country is always an inverse function of the amount of complaints about human rights violations heard from there. The greater the number of complaints being aired, the better protected are human rights in that country.”
(Senator Daniel Moynihan)
(Senator Daniel Moynihan)
Monday, February 24, 2014
PCC increases Police element of Council tax in Cumbria in line with inflation
I respect the views of those on both sides of the debate in Cumbria about whether the element of council tax which goes to fund the Police should have been increased.
I have always wanted to see council tax kept as low as possible. But I also want to see the police service in our county properly resourced.
What I find surprising is that nobody has mentioned the context - e.g. the current rate of inflation.
The Police and Crime Commissioner, after considerable discussion with the Police and Crime Panel, has decided to proceed with an increase of 1.93% in the Cumbria Constabulary element of the council tax.
The current rate of inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index is 1.9%
In other words the increase is pretty much in line with the rate of inflation. It does not represent a material change in real terms.
I have always wanted to see council tax kept as low as possible. But I also want to see the police service in our county properly resourced.
What I find surprising is that nobody has mentioned the context - e.g. the current rate of inflation.
The Police and Crime Commissioner, after considerable discussion with the Police and Crime Panel, has decided to proceed with an increase of 1.93% in the Cumbria Constabulary element of the council tax.
The current rate of inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index is 1.9%
In other words the increase is pretty much in line with the rate of inflation. It does not represent a material change in real terms.
Quote of the day 24th February 2014
“I live in the Managerial Age, in a world of "Admin."
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" that Dickens loved to paint. It is not done even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result.
But it is conceived and ordered (moved, seconded, carried, and minuted) in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by quiet men with white collars and cut fingernails and smooth-shaven cheeks who do not need to raise their voices.
Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
( C.S. Lewis, Preface to The Screwtape Letters)
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" that Dickens loved to paint. It is not done even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result.
But it is conceived and ordered (moved, seconded, carried, and minuted) in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by quiet men with white collars and cut fingernails and smooth-shaven cheeks who do not need to raise their voices.
Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
( C.S. Lewis, Preface to The Screwtape Letters)
Sunday, February 23, 2014
Quote of the day 23rd February 2014
"In a democracy, you believe it or not.
In a dictatorship, you believe it or else."
(Evan Esar)
In a dictatorship, you believe it or else."
(Evan Esar)
Saturday, February 22, 2014
Change in Ukraine
I have been watching in horror as the events in Ukraine have unfolded over the past few weeks and particularly last week.
However, with the vote by parliament to sack the President it looks - please God - as though something may come out of it which means that those who were murdered in the carnage of the last few weeks did not die in vain.
Predictably the opponents of the move have called it a coup, but unlike the situation in Egypt, it appears quite different. For one thing, this was based around a vote in parliament, not a move by generals and troops. For a second, one of the first things those who were voting for regime change did was set an early and specific date for new elections. That doesn't sound like a coup to me.
I don't see why a more democratic Ukraine cannot be friends and trading partners with both the EU countries and with Russia. It seems to me that for Ukraine to be a bridge between Russia and Europe is far more in the interests of the people who live in all three than the idea that Ukraine must be aligned exclusively with one or the other.
However, with the vote by parliament to sack the President it looks - please God - as though something may come out of it which means that those who were murdered in the carnage of the last few weeks did not die in vain.
Predictably the opponents of the move have called it a coup, but unlike the situation in Egypt, it appears quite different. For one thing, this was based around a vote in parliament, not a move by generals and troops. For a second, one of the first things those who were voting for regime change did was set an early and specific date for new elections. That doesn't sound like a coup to me.
I don't see why a more democratic Ukraine cannot be friends and trading partners with both the EU countries and with Russia. It seems to me that for Ukraine to be a bridge between Russia and Europe is far more in the interests of the people who live in all three than the idea that Ukraine must be aligned exclusively with one or the other.
Quote of the day 22nd February 2014
“It has always struck me that one of the readiest ways of estimating a country's regard for law is to notice what arms the officers of the law are carrying: in England it is little batons, in France swords, in many countries revolvers, and in Russia the police used to have artillery.”
(Lord Dunsany)
(Lord Dunsany)
Friday, February 21, 2014
Debating Europe
I was interested to see that Nick Clegg has challenged Nigel Farage to a debate on Europe and that the UKIP leader has accepted.
I tend to think public debates are in the interests of democracy provided fair arrangements can be made for the major points of view to be covered.
Given that we are in the run-up to a European election, I think it would be better if all four of the major party leaders could take part in any such debate.
I tend to think public debates are in the interests of democracy provided fair arrangements can be made for the major points of view to be covered.
Given that we are in the run-up to a European election, I think it would be better if all four of the major party leaders could take part in any such debate.
Quote of the day 21st February 2014
"The true test of any scholar's work is not what his contemporaries say, but what happpens to his work in the next 25 or 50 years. And the thing which I will really be proud of will be if some of the work I have done is still cited in the textbooks long after I am gone."
( Milton Friedman )
( Milton Friedman )
Thursday, February 20, 2014
Osborne warns recovery not secure as growth forecast raised
The Bank of England has upgraded their forecast for 2014 UK economic growth from 2.8 percent to 3.4 per cent. Despite this, and yesterday's good news on inflation and unemployment, chancellor George Osborne has warned that the job is not finished and the recovery not yet secure.
"We have to go on dealing with our debt and our deficit - and we have no choice but to do so" he said.
"We cannot rely on consumers alone for our economic growth as we did in previous decades. And we cannot put all our chips on the success of the City of London as my predecessors did."
He added that his forthcoming budget would be a budget for growth and investment and to help businesses to export.
"We have to go on dealing with our debt and our deficit - and we have no choice but to do so" he said.
"We cannot rely on consumers alone for our economic growth as we did in previous decades. And we cannot put all our chips on the success of the City of London as my predecessors did."
He added that his forthcoming budget would be a budget for growth and investment and to help businesses to export.
Inflation and unemployment down
Still much to do, but further good news on the economy this week with both inflation and unemployment down.
The office for National Statistics has confirmed that UK unemployment has fallen by 125,000 to 2.34 million in the quarter to December 2013 and now stands at 7.2%, while the rate of inflation as measured by CPI has fallen to 1.9%, hitting the Bank of England's 2% target for the first time in four years.
Because the unemployment rate fluctuates from month to month, the unemployment figures are usually calculated on the basis of a three month average. The fall of 125,000 is the drop between the average during the three months to September and that during the three months to December.
More women are in work - just over 14 million - than at any time since records began, the total number in work rose by 193,000 between September and December, and the number of people claiming unemployment benefit dropped for the fifteenth consecutive month.
Youth and long-term unemployment have also fallen.
Most people have been having a difficult time, and for many the improvement in the economy has not yet fed through into real incomes, although that will come if the economy continues to improve - the notoriously pessimistic BBC quotes "most economists" as suggesting it will start to happen for many more people in the second half of this year.
We have a long way to go before the economy is out of trouble - I for one will not be happy until we have actually started to pay back the gigantic mountain of debt which has been accumulating since Gordon Brown lost control of the nation's finances.
Nevertheless with the deficit down, unemployment down, inflation down, and growth up it is clear to any open minded and intelligent person that the government's long term economic plan is working and we are getting closer to the point when Britain's economy is out of danger.
The biggest danger at the moment would be if, God forbid, the British electorate were foolish enough to hand the car keys back to the people who crashed the car before by electing Brown's acolytes Ed Miliband and Ed Balls to run the economy in next year's General Election. I hope, pray, and expect that the people of Britain will have more sense than to do that.
The office for National Statistics has confirmed that UK unemployment has fallen by 125,000 to 2.34 million in the quarter to December 2013 and now stands at 7.2%, while the rate of inflation as measured by CPI has fallen to 1.9%, hitting the Bank of England's 2% target for the first time in four years.
Because the unemployment rate fluctuates from month to month, the unemployment figures are usually calculated on the basis of a three month average. The fall of 125,000 is the drop between the average during the three months to September and that during the three months to December.
More women are in work - just over 14 million - than at any time since records began, the total number in work rose by 193,000 between September and December, and the number of people claiming unemployment benefit dropped for the fifteenth consecutive month.
Youth and long-term unemployment have also fallen.
Most people have been having a difficult time, and for many the improvement in the economy has not yet fed through into real incomes, although that will come if the economy continues to improve - the notoriously pessimistic BBC quotes "most economists" as suggesting it will start to happen for many more people in the second half of this year.
We have a long way to go before the economy is out of trouble - I for one will not be happy until we have actually started to pay back the gigantic mountain of debt which has been accumulating since Gordon Brown lost control of the nation's finances.
Nevertheless with the deficit down, unemployment down, inflation down, and growth up it is clear to any open minded and intelligent person that the government's long term economic plan is working and we are getting closer to the point when Britain's economy is out of danger.
The biggest danger at the moment would be if, God forbid, the British electorate were foolish enough to hand the car keys back to the people who crashed the car before by electing Brown's acolytes Ed Miliband and Ed Balls to run the economy in next year's General Election. I hope, pray, and expect that the people of Britain will have more sense than to do that.
Quote of the day 20th February 2014
“The great virtue of a free market system is that it does not care what color people are; it does not care what their religion is; it only cares whether they can produce something you want to buy. It is the most effective system we have discovered to enable people who hate one another to deal with one another and help one another.”
( Milton Friedman )
( Milton Friedman )
Wednesday, February 19, 2014
A wonderful romantic coincidence
Today is my wedding anniversary. Fourteen years ago today, at our wedding reception, I sang my new wife Brigid the song "Where'er you walk" from Handel's opera "Semele."
By an amazing coincidence, when Brigid switched on the TV this evening, she happened to notice that one of the channels was broadcasting an Opera, and asked me what it was. After a few seconds I realised that it was in fact Semele - and a few minutes later we were able to listen to "Where'er you walk."
I don't know how many thousands to one the odds against that were, but we both enjoyed the song and it was a lovely reminder of our special day.
By an amazing coincidence, when Brigid switched on the TV this evening, she happened to notice that one of the channels was broadcasting an Opera, and asked me what it was. After a few seconds I realised that it was in fact Semele - and a few minutes later we were able to listen to "Where'er you walk."
I don't know how many thousands to one the odds against that were, but we both enjoyed the song and it was a lovely reminder of our special day.
Green totalitarianism
Let me make quite clear than in my opinion the balance of evidence supports the view that human activity is contributing to climate change and that preponderance of evidence is more than enough to justify restricting carbon emissions and those of other greenhouse gases.
That does not stop me being horrified at the suggestion from the Green party that those who don't share this view should be barred from all senior government positions including those not directly affecting the environment.
The earth's ecosystem is far more complex than any of us, from the best informed scientist to the most ignorant person, fully understand.
We need to monitor and debate what is happening to it with open minds, and sacking anyone who doesn't conform to the prevailing view is not the best way to do that.
That does not stop me being horrified at the suggestion from the Green party that those who don't share this view should be barred from all senior government positions including those not directly affecting the environment.
The earth's ecosystem is far more complex than any of us, from the best informed scientist to the most ignorant person, fully understand.
We need to monitor and debate what is happening to it with open minds, and sacking anyone who doesn't conform to the prevailing view is not the best way to do that.
Quote of the day 19th February 2014
“A society that puts equality before freedom will get neither. A society that puts freedom before equality will get a high degree of both.”
( Milton Friedman )
( Milton Friedman )
Tuesday, February 18, 2014
Quote of the Day 18th February 2014
"Wise people learn when they can; fools learn when they must."
(Arthur Wellesley, 1st Duke of Wellington)
(Arthur Wellesley, 1st Duke of Wellington)
Monday, February 17, 2014
Quote of the Day 17th February 2014
"Nothing except a battle lost can be half as melancholy as a battle won."
(Arthur Wellesley, 1st Duke of Wellesley)
(Arthur Wellesley, 1st Duke of Wellesley)
Sunday, February 16, 2014
DC on a tough week for Britain
The Prime Minister writes ...
"This has been a tough week for Britain.
The wettest winter in two and a half centuries, some of the worst flooding in decades, and more severe weather on the way this weekend.
We're doing everything we can to help:
- Delivering extra pumps and sandbags
- Deploying the military wherever needed
- Providing additional support for local emergency services
We will do what is necessary to help families and communities get through this very difficult time - more information is available on the Environment Agency website if you are affected.
Visiting the affected areas this week, I saw the incredible hard work and dedication of our emergency services, the Environment Agency, local authority workers, councils and armed forces.
Saturday, February 15, 2014
Nick Cohen and Dan Hodges on "Plebgate"
Six weeks ago I published a blog post here in response to an academic study in America which found statistical evidence that even intelligent and numerate people were more likely to make mistakes which reinforced their existing prejudices. The last words of my article were as follows:
"The moral of this story is that if you are analysing a set of data and the results come out exactly with what fits your prior beliefs, you should try to check your analysis as carefully and objectively as possible to make sure you are not convincing yourself that the new evidence conveniently fits what you were already disposed to believe."
There were two interesting articles on "plebgate" published in the past few days, both by people who appear not to suffer from this kind of confirmation bias as as they are lefties who were effectively coming to the defence of a former Tory cabinet minister. One of these articles, by Nick Cohen in yesterday's Spectator, concluded with almost exactly the same words that I have repeated above. The last three paragraphs of his article, which forensically demolishes the arguments The Times has been using to attack Andrew Mitchell, are as follows
"Writing about Mitchell in last Sunday’s Observer, I said that Robert Harris, a friend of Mitchell’s, had compared his treatment to the Dreyfus affair.
Nick Cohen's article in the Spectator can be read in full at
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/nick-cohen/2014/02/why-are-rupert-murdochs-men-damning-andrew-mitchell/
Dan Hodges in the Telegraph has a similar good article on the subject which can be read at
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100259366/the-times-has-not-told-the-truth-about-plebgate-nothing-has-changed/
"The moral of this story is that if you are analysing a set of data and the results come out exactly with what fits your prior beliefs, you should try to check your analysis as carefully and objectively as possible to make sure you are not convincing yourself that the new evidence conveniently fits what you were already disposed to believe."
There were two interesting articles on "plebgate" published in the past few days, both by people who appear not to suffer from this kind of confirmation bias as as they are lefties who were effectively coming to the defence of a former Tory cabinet minister. One of these articles, by Nick Cohen in yesterday's Spectator, concluded with almost exactly the same words that I have repeated above. The last three paragraphs of his article, which forensically demolishes the arguments The Times has been using to attack Andrew Mitchell, are as follows
"Writing about Mitchell in last Sunday’s Observer, I said that Robert Harris, a friend of Mitchell’s, had compared his treatment to the Dreyfus affair.
Harris is going over the top, but you can see his point. France in the 1890s had a large rightwing constituency, which wanted to believe that a spy in the French army had to be a treacherous Jew. The British left in the 2010s, and many others besides, want to believe in Tory posh boys, who will abuse the brave and honest coppers willing to put themselves in the line of fire.In other words, whatever your politics, whatever your inclinations, if you read a story that suits your prejudices perfectly, don’t believe it."
Nick Cohen's article in the Spectator can be read in full at
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/nick-cohen/2014/02/why-are-rupert-murdochs-men-damning-andrew-mitchell/
Dan Hodges in the Telegraph has a similar good article on the subject which can be read at
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100259366/the-times-has-not-told-the-truth-about-plebgate-nothing-has-changed/
Kendal today - Afternoon briefings ON, delivery CANCELLED
It is pouring with rain in Kendal this morning and is forecast to continue to do so until lunchtime.
After consultation with the campaign organisers in Westmorland and Lonsdale we have agreed that the campaign event which had been planned by Cumbria Conservatives in Natland this morning would not be practical.
However the briefing sessions at 12.30 for 1pm in Kendal this afternoon are STILL GOING AHEAD.
After consultation with the campaign organisers in Westmorland and Lonsdale we have agreed that the campaign event which had been planned by Cumbria Conservatives in Natland this morning would not be practical.
However the briefing sessions at 12.30 for 1pm in Kendal this afternoon are STILL GOING AHEAD.
Quotes of the day 15th February 2014
"It's like the Dunkirk Spirit without the war"
Doctor John Pittard who has been seeing patients in the local pub after his surgery was flooded, on the spirit local residents and service providers have shown in helping one another cope with flooding
“Why don’t you put your notebook down and give us a hand with the sandbags?”
Prince William to Guardian journalists while placing sandbags to protect local residents in a flooded area of Berkshire (hat tip to Guido Fawkes)
Doctor John Pittard who has been seeing patients in the local pub after his surgery was flooded, on the spirit local residents and service providers have shown in helping one another cope with flooding
“Why don’t you put your notebook down and give us a hand with the sandbags?”
Prince William to Guardian journalists while placing sandbags to protect local residents in a flooded area of Berkshire (hat tip to Guido Fawkes)
Friday, February 14, 2014
Failing the Turing test
The late Alan Turing, a brilliant mathematician who helped crack the Enigma code and who recently received a very belated posthumous pardon for a conviction under an antedeluvian law, once suggested a test for whether a computer or robot was approaching sentience.
He suggested that the machine be put on the other side of a wall, phone line, or similar barrier and conduct a conversation with someone who didn't know whether they were talking to a human or a machine.
If the person on the other end of the conversation could not work out whether they were talking to a machine or a human being, then the machine must be approaching sentience.
On that basis "SmartBot" which had a conversation with John Humphries on the today programme this morning is light years away from sentience. The only one of its' replies that made much sense was something along the lines of "I am a computer" which was at least accurate but certainly would not pass the Turing test!
He suggested that the machine be put on the other side of a wall, phone line, or similar barrier and conduct a conversation with someone who didn't know whether they were talking to a human or a machine.
If the person on the other end of the conversation could not work out whether they were talking to a machine or a human being, then the machine must be approaching sentience.
On that basis "SmartBot" which had a conversation with John Humphries on the today programme this morning is light years away from sentience. The only one of its' replies that made much sense was something along the lines of "I am a computer" which was at least accurate but certainly would not pass the Turing test!
Booker on what we need to do to avoid causing more catastrophic floods.
Christopher Booker has an excellent article in tomorrow's Spectator which you can read at
http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9137131/instant-wildlife-just-add-water/
(Thanks to Jim King for drawing it to my attention.)
in which he suggests some changes which need to be made in the policies of the EU and of the Environment Agency to reduce the chance of future periods of prolonged high rainfall doing as much damage as the present one has.
I don't claim to know for certain whether he is right, and now is not the ideal time for a dispassionate analysis for the reasons covered in some detail in the article. But the arguments are very persuasive and I hope that as soon as the crisis is past the government, the EA, and the EU give them very serious attention.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9137131/instant-wildlife-just-add-water/
(Thanks to Jim King for drawing it to my attention.)
in which he suggests some changes which need to be made in the policies of the EU and of the Environment Agency to reduce the chance of future periods of prolonged high rainfall doing as much damage as the present one has.
I don't claim to know for certain whether he is right, and now is not the ideal time for a dispassionate analysis for the reasons covered in some detail in the article. But the arguments are very persuasive and I hope that as soon as the crisis is past the government, the EA, and the EU give them very serious attention.
Quote of the day 14th February 2014
"The eskimos had fifty-two names for snow because it was important to them: there ought to be as many for love."
(Margaret Atwood.)
(Margaret Atwood.)
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