Emergency One Way Traffic Order, Main Street St Bees

As a result of a gas leak, Cumbria County Council's officers have put an emergency one-way traffic order onto a section of Main Street in St Bees, in the vicinity of the level crossing over the railway, which came into effect today (Monday 27th January 2020) and is expected to last for about five days.

While the order is in effect traffic will only be able to drive South-East along this section of road.

A diversion is in place and signposted for traffic heading North West which runs via High House Road, the A595, Mirehouse Road and the B5345 (St Bees Road.)

Music spot for 27 January 2020: Purcell's funeral music from March to Canzona

Holocaust Memorial Day

Today is the 75th anniversary of the liberation of the Auschwitz-Birkenau death camp and is commemorated as Holocaust Memorial Day, on which we remember the Shoah (the murder of nearly six million Jewish men, women and children by the Nazis) and the other victims of the Nazi holocaust.

To describe just the ten largest groups of other victims, listed in order of the number of people murdered by the Nazis, the victims of the holocaust included Jews, Soviet/Russian POWs and civilians, Poles, Serbs, People with disabilities, Gypsies, Freemasons, Slovenes, political and religious opponents of Nazism, gay people, and too many other racial, religious, political or social groups to list.

Today we remember all those victims as well as those in other genocides such as those in Cambodia, Rwanda, Bosnia and Darfur.

Speaking at a national commemoration of the event today, in Westminster Central Hall, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said:

“I feel a deep sense of shame that here in Britain in 2020 we seem to be dealing with a resurgence of the virus of anti-Semitism, and I know that I carry a responsibility as Prime Minister to do everything possible to stamp it out.”

Vowing to ensure the memory of the horrors of the Holocaust will not be forgotten, he promised that a national Holocaust memorial and education centre will be built

“so that future generations can never doubt what happened”.

He added: “Because that is the only way we can be certain that it will never happen again.”

The UK government also announced today that it is making a £1m donation to the Auschwitz-Birkenau Foundation to help preserve the site and ensure the Holocaust is never forgotten.

You can can read more about Holocaust Memorial Day 2020 here.

We must never forget what happened. We must work to stop such events from happening again.

Quote of the day for Holocaust Memorial Day, 27th January 2020

"Even in the midst of darkness, it is possible to create light and share warmth with one another; that even on the edge of the abyss, it is possible to dream exalted dreams of compassion"

(Elie Wiesel, Auschwitz survivor)

Sunday Music Spot: "Lord let me know mine end" by Maurice Greene

Quote of the day 26th January 2020

"The M1 took 35 years from first proposal to its opening. Otherwise no significant transport corridor North from London has been built since Queen Victoria's reign.

All our existing corridors, road and rail, are choked. As this century proceeds, with new housing new towns, new landscape protections, it's going to get harder to break through. Yet transport pressure is intense and must grow.

This year a new corridor is nearing readiness. And having talked ourselves into it, we're now in danger of talking ourselves out of it again.

We must be crazy."

(Matthew Parris demonstrates that when he stops obsessing about Brexit he is still sometimes capable of hitting nails directly on the head in a Times article,

"We owe it to the next generation to build HS2.")

Boris Johnson signs EU Withdrawal agreement

Yesterday the EU withdrawal agreement was signed, first by EU leaders in Brussels, and then it was taken by Eurostar to London and signed by Boris Johnson in Downing Street.

The agreement has been ratified and written into law by the UK parliament: it still has to be ratified by the European Parliament, and a vote is expected on Wednesday. Ratification was supported by the EP's constitutional committee last Thursday and the full parliament is expected to take the same view on Wednesday.
Boris Johnson said that the signing "finally delivers the result of the 2016 referendum and brings to an end far too many years of argument and division."

He added: "We can now move forward as one country - with a government focused upon delivering better public services, greater opportunity and unleashing the potential of every corner of our brilliant UK, while building a strong new relationship with the EU as friends and sovereign equals."


The new EU Council President Charles Michel tweeted: "Things will inevitably change but our friendship will remain. We start a new chapter as partners and allies."

Erdoğan takes Turkey back to Old Testament times.

There was a time when he was elected Prime Minister of Turkey in 2003 when it was possible to see the country's current president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his AK Party as a moderate, modernising force which could lead Turkey in the direction of being a successful and normal 21st century society.

It's no coincidence that it was at that stage of his leadership of Turkey that British statesmen who were subsequently to end up on both sides of the Brexit debate - including both David Cameron and Boris Johnson -  thought that it was reasonable to hope that Turkey might join the EU. one of thye most damaging aspects of the EU referendum campaign was that comments on this subject which had been made in the first decade of the 21st century while Turkey was on the road to reform were repeated out of context in the following decade by which time the government of Turkey had completely reversed direction.

Turkey is one of very few majority Islamic states - the most other obvious example is Bangladesh - which had evolved their own version of the separation of church and state. Which makes what has happened in the country in the last couple of years of Erdoğan's premiership and during his presidency all the more tragic.

In the early part of his premiership Erdoğan made attempts, some more serious than others but attempts nevertheless, to reconcile Turks and Muslims with Kurds, Greece, Israel and Armenia and with Jews and Christians. He almost doubled the number of universities in Turkey, encouraged people of both sexes to go to them, and launched a campaign called "Come on girls, let's go to school!" (in Turkish, "Haydi Kızlar Okula!"). The goal of this campaign was to close the gender-gap in primary school enrollment through the provision of a quality basic education for all girls, especially in southeast Turkey.

Sadly in the last few years much of this reform agenda has gone into reverse, with anyone who criticises Erdoğan's government liable to be sacked, prosecuted, or both. In 2017 it was suggested that Turkey appears to have imprisoned more journalists than any other country in the world and more than North Korea, Russia, Cuba and China put together. A 2017 law effectively makes it illegal for the Turkish parliament to investigate the executive branch of government.

It is perhaps in the treatment of women that the promise of Erdoğan's early years has most disappointingly been not just abandoned but put backwards. Turkey used to have a reputation as one of the most positive countries in the middle east on the subject of women's rights: I referred above to the campaign to get girls to school.In 2004 as PM Erdoğan and the AK Party doubled the sentence for child abusers and removed the law giving men convicted of statutory rape more lenient treatment if they marry their victim which they now propose to bring back.

The idea that victims of rape or child abuse might be helped by having to marry their rapist originates in Old Testament times, and that is where it belongs. If there had been any doubt President Erdoğan and the AK Party are dragging Turkey backwards into the past, the news they are bringing forward a bill to release men who have been sentenced for committing statutory rape on condition they marry their victim must remove it.

Saturday music spot: Elizabethan Serenade

This piece of music is "Elizabethan Serenade" performed by the Ronald Binge orchestra.
The paintings in the accompanying video are by Vladimir Volegov.

Quote of the day 25th January 2020

My political compass score

I seem to be becoming more socially libertarian with age.

A social media post having given me the impression that the "Political Compass site had refreshed their questions, I took the test again this evening and got the following result


Economic Left/Right: 4.38
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -3.69

In other words they put me to the right of centre on economics, but not quite so far to the right that I couldn't legitimately describe myself as "centre right" which is fair enough, but well into the libertarian quadrant, further "south" than I have found myself in the past, on social issues.

It's no surprise to find myself in the lower right quadrant for those who are liberal in the classical sense of the word on both economic and social issues. But in the past I have usually been just below the line dividing the top and bottom halves of a political field on the "political compass" basis and this time I have come out nearly as far  below the centre as I am to the right of it.

Political Compass also provided me with an electronic "certificate" showing where I stand relative to various historical and contemporary figures. Most of them make sense but I did a double take to find Hilary Clinton in about the position in which I would place Margaret Thatcher (as PM.)

I suspect there may be some debate about that one ...

Watching out for human trafficking in Cumbria

Open slavery was abolished in this country centuries ago. But the practice refuses to die and keeps taking new forms.

Referring to training being provided by "Hope for Justice" on how to spot signs of human trafficking and modern slavery, Cumbria's Police and Crime Commissioner Peter McCall said:

“Most of us think of slavery as a practice left in history. However, this is not the case. 

“Vulnerable people who are looking for a better life are being exploited by criminals to work in horrendous conditions for little to no money and are being excluded from society. 

“This is the most despicable exploitation of people at their most vulnerable and there is no place for it here in Cumbria. 

“This training is essential for all agencies that may come in to contact with these victims as they have often been taught to fear authorities by their exploiters. 

“I applaud this training and I am sure it will benefit those who have received it as well as the victims.” 


Slavery and Human trafficking are of huge concern in Cumbria and agencies have come together to provide training and awareness to help create a safer county.

Safer Cumbria, a multi-agency partnership. has been bringing people from the fields of criminal justice and community safety together to co-ordinate their activities and better protect the public.

They have been paying particular attention to the problems of modern slavery. Victims, often immigrants who come to the UK on the promise of a better life, have been forced into working long hours, on less than the minimum wage in uncomfortable and sometimes dangerous working conditions.

Hope for Justice, a charity that aims to ‘bring an end to modern slavery by preventing exploitation, rescuing victims, restoring lives and reforming society’, provided a training session from funding granted to Safer Cumbria from the police budget to fight modern slavery.

Sandra Radcliffe, modern slavery and human trafficking co-ordinator for Safer Cumbria said:

“Modern slavery and human trafficking is happening in Cumbria and we need to ensure we are all confident in the processes around dealing with victims. 

“I really appreciate the interest from our partners in attending this event and the funding we have received in order to deliver it.”

Terry "No one expects the Spanish Inquisition" Jones RIP

One of the iconic comedy lines from my childhood was "No one expects the Spanish Inquisition!"

For those who don't remember it, after various characters in one episode of "Monty Python's Flying Circus" had said things like

"I didn't expect a sort of Spanish Inquisition about it,"

the "Spanish Inquisition" consisting of Terry Jones as 'Cardinal Biggles' and two other Python cast members dressed as Spanish soldiers would burst in, Jones would exclaim,

"No one expects the Spanish Inquisition!"

and they would subject the person who had not been expecting them to various "tortures" such as sitting in a comfy chair.

When the news came out that Jones had died earlier this week at the age of 77, Stephen Fry tweeted

"Farewell Terry Jones. The great foot has come down to stamp on you" 

(a reference to another Monty Python comic motif.)


Terry Gilliam, with whom Jones directed the film "Monty Python and the Holy Grail" in 1975, described his fellow Python as a

 "brilliant, constantly questioning, iconoclastic, righteously argumentative and angry but outrageously funny and generous and kind human being". 

He was a titan of comedy and he will be missed.

Rest in Peace.

The Manchester child abuse case disaster deserves far more attention

People who abuse children belong in prison regardless of the colour of their skin and that of their victims.

No race has a monopoly of this kind of evil. Sadly there are child abusers in this country of every race, of both genders, and of every religious and cultural orientation. And every one of them if the evidence exists to do so, should be prosecuted.

The disastrous mishandling of the case of the Manchester grooming gang, and the abandonment of Operation Augusta, is yet another sorry example of the catastrophic effect on our justice system wrought by a toxic combination of identity politics and cowardice.

And the victims of this catastrophic failure have been some of the most vulnerable young people in our society.

The fact that this cowardice continues is demonstrated by the inadequate level of press coverage of the horrifying report into what happened in Manchester, as Charlotte Henry rightly argues here.

Let me be absolutely clear.

White men who groom and rape children belong in prison

Black men who groom and rape children belong in prison

Brown men who groom and rape children belong in prison

Women of whatever race who abuse children or help others to do so also belong in prison

Anyone in authority who fails to act on evidence that vulnerable children are being abused because they are afraid of being called racist is guilty of the neglect of their duty.

And Manchester is only the latest in a string of too many parts of the country where there is evidence of exactly that kind of dereliction of duty.

I don't think there is an easy way to completely stamp out the horrible crime of child abuse - I wish there were. But we have to look for ways to make our efforts to protect the vulnerable and put the guilty behind bars more effective. More police resources is a start. But we also have to go back to some fundamental principles - the accused are innocent until proven guilty, but the authorities must follow the evidence wherever it leads.

In this country we've somehow managed at the same time to destroy the lives of people who were  innocent of child abuse by pre-judging as "credible and true" false accusations from liars and fantasists like Karl Beech, while others who were guilty got away with it for far too long.

There was also at least one high-profile case where a distinguished public servant had the last year of his life wrecked through a case of mistaken identity caused by inadequate care by the authorities, where a genuine victim was shown a wrongly identified photographs, and it was only when  a consequent mistaken allegation had been make public without adequate checks and broadcast on television that it was realised that the wrong person had had their reputation destroyed. That case may have been a one-off but it is an example of the sort of mistake which must not be allowed to happen again.

We have to do better. More must be done to follow up evidence and prosecute the guilty without pre-judging that evidence or falling into the trap of the kind of hysteria which might result in wrecking the lives of the innocent. And where there is evidence that a vulnerable child or young person is at risk it ought to be possible to deo more to protect those vulnerable people without pre-judging the guilt or innocence of those who may, or might not, subsequently be charged with wrongdoing.

Quote of the day 24th January 2020

Cumbria's MPs meet to promote interests of County's residents

New and re-elected MPs representing Cumbria, Simon Fell (Barrow and Furness), Trudy Harrison (Copeland), Dr Neil Hudson (Penrith and the Border), Mark Jenkinson (Workington) and John Stevenson (Carlisle) have agreed to continue their frequent meetings to promote Cumbria in Westminster.

Workington MP Mark Jenkinson said:

“I was pleased to see that there was an established mechanism for Cumbrian MPs to work together on joint projects; creating a stronger voice in Westminster for our county. 

"Issues such as infrastructure have knock on benefits to other constituencies and this joined up approach can only benefit Cumbria.” 

Carlisle MP John Stevenson added: “Cumbrian MPs have always worked together for the benefit of Cumbria, when they can find common ground and in previous parliaments this has paid dividends. 

"I am pleased that these discussions and common projects will continue to drive growth and success in Cumbria.” 

And Copeland MP Trudy Harrison echoed their thoughts, saying: “It is great to be working with colleagues who share a common ambition for Cumbria, working together without the divisions of politics ensures the focus is on progress.” 

Barrow and Furness MP Simon Fell said that these meetings were crucial to ensure 'Cumbria’s voice is heard in Westminster'.

EU Withdrawal agreement bill becomes law

Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal has become law after it received royal assent from the Queen, having cleared all its stages in parliament.

Deputy speaker Nigel Evans confirmed in the House of Commons that the bill to implement the Withdrawal Agreement has now become law as the European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) Act.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the moment was a significant milestone.

“At times it felt like we would never cross the Brexit finish line, but we’ve done it,” he said.

The deal still has to be ratified by the European Parliament.

Nevertheless it is now clear that Britain will leave the European Union on 31st January.

Quote of the day: "Scotland said no and we meant it!"

"Scotland said no, and we meant it"

(Ian Blackford, Westminster leader of the SNP,  at Prime Minister's Questions yesterday)

He was talking about Brexit, but as the Prime Minister pointed out, the words are even more appropriate to Scottish independence: in the 2014 the people of Scotland were offered independence and by 55% to 45% they voted No.

And they meant it.

And it's about time the SNP listened to the people of Scotland, accepted the decision that Scottish voters made, and got on with the day job of sorting out the problems with the Scottish NHS, the Scottish education system, and the economy of Scotland instead of fantasising about another referendum.

If they can't do that they have no business lecturing anyone else about democracy.

We have just had the best decade in human history to date ...

On most objective measures, the decade which has just ended was the best in human history.

But we don't want to believe it.

Our brains evolved to focus on protecting us against threats which makes us prone to a bias in favour or pessimism.

Matt Ridley tweeted ironically yesterday that

"If you asked chimpanzees whether extreme poverty has doubled, halved, or stayed the same by writing the answers on three bananas, they would get the right answer six times as often as people do:"

More on this subject on the "Rational Optimist" podcast here.

Midweek music spot: "A walk in the Black Forest."

Quote of the day 22nd January 2020

Notes from today's marathon meeting of Copeland Local Committee

More to follow later this week, but today's meeting of Cumbria County Council's local committee for Copeland included the following

1) We had an extremely informative presentation on Universal Credit and what is being done to improve it and help people for whom it has not worked from the Department of Work and Pensions and

2) We approved next year's capital budget and a number of grants

3) We heard important presentations on Road safety and the county council's service caring for vulnerable children in Copeland and Allerdale

4) We also discussed the need for a better bridge over the River Duddon at Duddon Bridge, one of the least satisfactory points on the A595 (a road with many places which need improving)

5) Do Cumbria Libraries stock John Bunyan's "Pilgrim's Progress?"

Yes, the library does stock that book, there are at least nine copies which should be available.

Watch this space ...

Monday is Holocaust Memorial Day

This coming Monday, 27th January 2020 will be the 75th anniversary of the liberation of Auchwitz and will be commemorated as Holocaust Memorial Day.


The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge will attend next Monday's national Holocaust Memorial Day commemorative ceremony in Westminster. The Duke will give a reading and the couple will meet Holocaust survivors and survivors of subsequent genocides.

Holocaust memorial Day Trust chief executive Olivia Marks-Woldman explained that

"Holocaust Memorial Day is particularly significant this year as we mark 75 years since the liberation of Auschwitz-Birkenau,"

She added that

"The UK ceremony is the national focal point for more than 10,000 Holocaust Memorial Day activities which are taking place in community settings from schools to libraries, and from councils to prisons. At every event to mark the day, people know more about the past, develop empathy for others, and commit to taking action to create a better future."

The theme for HMD 2020 is Stand Together.

Throughout history, murderous regimes have deliberately divided and fractured societies by marginalising particular groups of human being as scapegoats and used them to divert blame and hostility.

For example, in the years leading up to the Holocaust, Nazi policies and propaganda deliberately encouraged divisions within German society – urging ‘Aryan’ Germans to keep themselves separate from their Jewish neighbours. Nazi persecution of both Jews and other groups in society leading up to mass murder and genocide was enabled by dividing people from one another.
Today, as we see increasing division in communities across the UK and the world. we need now more than ever to stand together with others in our communities and stop the spread of identity-based hostility in our society.

You can read more about how to take part in Holocaust Memorial day here.

Quote of the day 21st January 2020

One voter's journey from Corbyn campaigner to Conservative voter

There is an interesting article on Spiked and in longer form on her own blog by Alice Bragg on how she went from being an active campaigner for Momentum and Jeremy Corbyn from 2015 through to 2018, to voting Conservative in the 2019 general election.

She has an interesting perspective. After describing how she became disillusioned with Labour and the Corbyn project she continues:

"As I write this, I am acutely aware of the consternation this may provoke among other Labour supporters and activists. Many have spoken to me openly and honestly about the concerns they have about a Conservative government and the impact it might have on their families and their community. The simple answer is that I voted Conservative because I believe Brexit must happen as soon as possible. By denying communities their political will to leave the EU, Labour became incapable of representing them.

And yet, I still believe Corbyn was the spark for a genuine and vital movement for change. Although he lacked the qualities to deliver on his promises, the excitement around the Corbyn project, particularly in the north and the Midlands, should not be forgotten. There is no reason why, with the right leader, Labour cannot enthuse people again. But for me personally to come back to Labour, there would need to be a credible economic blueprint to reshape the economy; the party would need enough confidence to bring in good people, based on merit, and retain them; and it would need to continue to support local campaigns by developing policy solutions and not just promising more and more funding. But most importantly, the Labour Party must have the will to unify the country and a vision that includes us all. Without that, it will continue to alienate its natural supporters."

You can read Alice Bragg's article at Spiked here or in slightly longer form on her own blog here.

Quote of the day 20th January 2020

Sunday music spot "O Thou the central orb" by Charles Wood

The left's "Trickle Down" fabrication

I see that Sir Keir Starmer, one of the candidates to take over as leader of the Labour party, has been repeating a very old fabrication - the idea that supporters of free-market economics believe in something called "trickle down" theory.

He tweeted that the free market model has failed and that "trickle down didn't happen."

This is misleading nonsense - "Trickle Down" theory is a straw man fabrication which left-wingers put up in order to knock it down, and bears very little resemblance to what supporters of the free-market actually think. The term was originally coined by American humorist William Rogers as a joke in 1932 and was initially used by Democrats in the USA to describe the policies which they claimed that US Republicans supported - a claim vehemently refuted by those same Republicans  - and it has now started to be used by left-wing politicians in Britain in the same misleading way. I have never heard of a case where a serious economist has argued in favour of "trickle down" theory or a government which has said it was following such a policy.

The "Trickle Down" myth misrepresents the case for the free market in at least two serious respects

1) It implies that free marketeers only believe in tax cuts for the rich, the impact of which will supposedly then "trickle down" to the poor (an idea which it is extremely easy to disprove.)

Actually most free-market supporters believe in tax cuts for people at every level of income, including those on low incomes.

For example, far and away the largest tax cuts made by the coalition and Conservative governments in the UK since 2010, for instance, has been the increase in income tax thresholds which have meant that millions of low paid workers no longer have to pay income tax at all.

People on the centre right don't imagine that you can magically help the low paid by cutting tax on the rich, we want to directly reduce - and in some cases eliminate - the tax paid by the low paid as well, so that they too will gain a higher share of the reward for extra work that they do and will  benefit from better incentives.

2) It ignores the distinction between tax rates and total tax revenue.

When tax rates reach punitive levels, they provide a strong disincentive to effort and investment. Above certain rates, there is plenty of evidence that extremely high tax rates bring in less revenue in the long run by distorting the economy and cutting savings and investment.

When Mrs Thatcher's government cut the top rates of tax in the UK, which had been 98 pence in the pound or 83 pence in the pound depending on the type of income, to 60% (and later to 40%) the amount of tax and the share of tax paid by the people subject to those rates didn't go down.   In fact they paid more - more money in absolute terms and more as a proportion of total tax revenue.

Removing punitive tax rates isn't necessarily about giving money to the rich - it can be about getting more money out of them in the long term.

I include clips by two economists on the subject. First, here is one by Thomas Sowell, who challenged the left to provide a single example of a serious economist who supported "trickle down" theory. Nobody has produced a convincing example.



And here Steven Horwitz, Charles A. Dana Professor of Economics at St. Lawrence University, makes a similar point.



It's a shame that people on the left can't engage with and debate with what people on the centre-right actually think instead of creating myths like "trickle down" economics to knock down.

Quote of the day 19th January 2020

Cancer Tests save lives

The earlier cancer is caught, the better the outcomes. Both the chances of survival for five years, and quality of life while one is still alive, are far better if cancer is discovered and treated earlier.

That's why cancer screening for both women and men is really important: it needs to be improved and should be taken up.

I was extremely disappointed to learn this weekend that the latest figures for take-up of cervical smear tests in North and West Cumbria is only 80%. 15,964 women who were eligible for a smear test did not have one.

Next week is Cervical cancer prevention week and a number of campaigns are planned to spread awareness and encourage higher takeup.

Every woman who is invited to have a smear cervical smear test would be very well advised to take it up - and already this year one caring business in West Cumbria, the playgroup Tot Spot repeated the offer of free childcare while mums have the test.

The owner of Tot Spot, Angela Greasley, first offered free childcare for the cause in November 2018, after the story of Workington woman Susan Rumney losing her battle with cervical cancer opened her eyes to the danger of ignoring a smear test.

While Tot Spot usually charges £4 for half an hour of care, or £12 for two hours, the offer of free childcare in exchange for attending a smear test is always on the table.

Bernard Wooley RIP

Actor Derek Fowlds, who played the civil servant Bernard Wooley in "Yes, Minister" and "Yes, Prime Minister" died yesterday at the age of 82.

He was a wonderful actor and according to those who worked with him, a kind and lovely man.

He had many of the best lines in the show, as in this clip in which he talks about defence capabilities:



He was also a perfect foil for other actors such as Nigel Hawthorne, as in this scene where "Sir Humphry" explains how to get the result you want from an opinion poll:



Derek Fowlds also appeared in "Heartbeat" and the Basil Brush show.

Rest in Peace.

Saturday music spot: The Monkees sing "Last Train to Clarksville"

As a small child I loved the comedy show "The Monkees," which featured a band originally put together for the show, and shown here clowning around in two clips from the show.

I remember watching and listening to this song and scenes like these. However, at the time I had no idea of the hidden bite behind the comedy in the form of the huge significant of the words at the time to contemporary young American men: Clarksville was where many of them had to report on being drafted before being sent to serve in Vietnam.

Hence the line "and I don't know if I'm ever coming home" was a reference to the possibility of being killed in action.

Quote of the day 18th January 2020

Statement from Cumbria NHS confirming Accident & Emergency at WCH stays open

The North Cumbria Integrated Care NHS Foundation Trust has put out a briefing and media statement explaining that, although they are reviewing how to maintain Accident and Emergency service (A&E) at West Cumberland Hospital (WCH) in Whitehaven, there is no question of closing the service at night or at any other time.


Lyn Simpson Chief Executive of North Cumbria Integrated Care NHS Foundation Trust (NCIC) said, 

“The Trust is committed to the outcome of the public consultation made in March 2017 for a 24/7 Accident & Emergency provision at West Cumberland Hospital.”

The trust has reaffirmed its commitment to the outcome of the public consultation to retain a 24/7 Accident & Emergency provision at West Cumberland Hospital. 

The full statement reads as follows

Media Statement

Prof John Howarth, Deputy Chief Executive said, “We do have some forthcoming staffing challenges and so clinical leaders in the team are reviewing our current arrangements.  We will be working with local community groups to find a long term sustainable solution to these challenges that will enable us to keep A&E open 24/7.

“Next month we will be launching engagement activities that we are currently designing with community groups to understand priorities of the community for the £33m capital investment that has been secured for the next phase of the West Cumberland Hospital redevelopment.  This is a significant investment that will enable us to deliver high quality modern health care services for the residents of West Cumbria.”

Lyn Simpson Chief Executive of North Cumbria Integrated Care NHS Foundation Trust (NCIC) said, “The Trust is committed to the outcome of the public consultation made in March 2017 for a 24/7 Accident & Emergency provision at West Cumberland Hospital.”

Quote of the day 17th January 2020

Quote of the day 16th January 2020

Midweek Music Spot: "Blow, blow thou winter wind" by Thomas Arne

Quote of the day 15th January 2020

Quote of the day 14th January 2020

“It was very hard for me to believe that our people have been killed. Forgive me that I got to know this late. And forgive me for the 13 years I told you lies.” 

(Resignation statement and apology to the people of Iran from Gelare Jabbari, in an Instagram post, after she left her position as an Iranian State TV anchor on becoming convinced that she was being used to disseminate falsehood and propaganda.)

Copeland Local Committee

As I posted last week, the January meeting of Cumbria County Council's local committee for Copeland will be held at 10.15 am at Cleator Moor Civic Hall on 21st January 2020.

The meeting will be open to the public. The agenda and most of the supporting papers have now gone up on the council website here. (There are two more to follow.)

I have been to a few council meetings in the last few months where the agenda was a bit light, in some cases so much so that one did wonder whether it would have been better to save public money by cancelling them, but this one is not light in any way shape or form.

The agenda includes the following:

6. Universal Credit

To receive presentations from representatives from the Department of Work and Pensions and the Citizen’s Advice Bureau on the functioning of the Universal Credit system and it's impact on local people.

7. Third Sector Waste

To receive a presentation from the Executive Director – Economy and Infrastructure

8. Road Safety Update 

To consider a report by the Executive Director – Economy and Infrastructure. The purpose of this report is to raise awareness of the road safety management arrangements and activities that the Cumbria Road Safety Partnership currently has in place.

10. Countryside and Access Team Annual Report. 

11. 2019/20 Local Committee Devolved Highways Budget

To consider a report by the Executive Director – Economy and Infrastructure. This report presents the Highways Devolved Budget Finance figures including an update on the Highways Revenue and Capital Programme.

12. Draft Highways Capital and Revenue Budgets 2020/2021

To consider a report by the Executive Director – Economy and Infrastructure (to follow).

13. Copeland Highways Working Group

To consider a report by the Executive Director – Economy and Infrastructure (copy enclosed). This report provides details of the meeting of the Highways Working Group held on 17 December 2019 and presents recommendations for the Local Committee to consider.

14. Millom TRO (Traffic Regulation Order)

To consider a report by the Executive Director – Economy and Infrastructure (to follow).

15. Area Planning Report

To consider a report by the Executive Director – Corporate, Customer and Community Services. This report provides Copeland Local Committee with an update on work and activity undertaken to promote and progress local area planning since its last meeting. It is also to advise Members of the council on the current budget position.

Quote of the day 13th January 2020

"If you don’t believe in free speech for people who you disagree with, and even hate for what they stand for, then you don’t believe in free speech."

(Ricky Gervais on twitter yesterday)

Roger Scruton RIP

The family of Sir Roger Scruton have issued the following statement today:


"Announcement 12th January 2020

It is with great sadness that we announce the death of Sir Roger Scruton, FBA, FRSL. Beloved husband of Sophie, adored father to Sam and Lucy and treasured brother of Elizabeth and Andrea, he died peacefully on Sunday 12th January. He was born on 27th February 1944 and had been fighting cancer for the last 6 months. His family are hugely proud of him and of all his achievements."

Sir Roger was one of Britain's most distinguished academics. He managed to clear his name last year after being sacked as an unpaid government advisor after the New Statesman selectively quoted an interview he gave the magazine in a way which they subsequently accepted "did not accurately represent his views."

Both the magazine and the government apologised to him.

Rest in Peace.

Sunday music spot: "I Was Glad" by Sir Charles Parry

Quote of the day 12th January 2020

Saturday music spot: Händel's "Dixit Dominus" first movement

Quote of the day 11th January 2020

"What is ominous is the ease with which some people go from saying that they don't like something to saying that the government should ban it.

When you go down that road, don't expect freedom to survive very long."

(Thomas Sowell)

January meeting of the CCC Copeland local committee

The January meeting of Cumbria County Council's local committee for Copeland will be held at 10.15 am at Cleator Moor Civic Hall on 21st January 2020.

The meeting will be open to the public.

The agenda will become available here early in the week before the meeting (e.g. next week at the time of putting up this post.)

Friday music spot: Gluck - Dance of the Furies

Quote of the day 10th January 2020

Notes from today's meeting of Cumbria County Council

1) Near the start of the meeting there was a very good presentation by the Chief Constable of Cumbria constabulary.

Her talk was well received and prompted half an hour of questions

2) This was followed by a presentation from the council of children in care.

3) Under questions I asked about the status of proposals under consideration by Durham County Council to introduce fluoridisation, which if it goes ahead will affect not just their own area but parts of several neighbouring authorities, including about 2,345 residents of Cumbria in the Alston area.

The Portfolio Holder replied that Durham County Council has asked the government in mid December for permission to hold a consultation on this issue. At the moment they are awaiting a decision from the Secretary of State for Health, which they hope to receive by the end of January.

There is a legal requirement for a thorough consultation with all the areas affected, which must take place over a period of at least 12 months and is likely to be carried out this Summer.

More details will be published in due course if the Secretary of State gives permission for this issue to be considered.  Watch this space.

4) In accordance with the recommendation from the independent panel, the Labour leader put forward a proposal to increase councillors' allowances by 2% from April. 

(This is in line with the pay offer made to staff. The current rate of inflation is 2.2% on the RPI measure or 1.5% on the CPI measure.)

The proposal was carried on the votes of Labour and Lib/Dem councillors. The Conservative group, including myself, abstained.  

5) At the conclusion of the meeting there were four speeches from members of the council, including one from myself on the importance of working for further improvements to the A595.

Music to relax after a council meeting: Mozart's Piano Concerto No.21 ("Elvira Madigan") 2nd Movement

Quote of the day 9th January 2020

Midweek music spot for a wet January: "Winter" from Vivaldi's Four Seasons.

Quote of the day 8th January 2020

Tuesday music spot: Bach's Variations on "Wachet Auf", No. 1

Cognitive diversity

There was an interesting weekend essay by Matthew Syed in The Times a couple of days ago about  cognitive diversity with the title

"The truth is that great minds don't think alike."

The point he was making is that if you are assembling a team of people to do a job then in the vast majority of  cases - with a few exceptions such as a relay racing team - the way to get the most effective team is to include a mix of different abilities and skills.

The essay gives as an example of when this approach was used particularly successfully of the Bletchley Park codebreaking team which broke the Enigma codes. As well as great mathematical minds like Alan Turing the team at Bletchley was deliberately set up to include other type of thinkers, both men and women, and people with non-mathematical skills including people with skills such as doing crosswords. This intellectually diverse team was better able to crack the codes and get inside the heads of the German Enigma operators by coming at the problem from different angles.

I presume this is what the PM's senior advisor, Dominic Cummings meant when he suggested that Number Ten wants to recruit - "super-talented weirdos" - a strategy which will of course work better if it means moving away from a stereotype of what kind of person they do and do not want to recruit than it will if it means replacing one stereotype with a different one.

The comment from Thomas Sowell about asking academics how many Conservatives there are in their sociology department which was my quote of the day yesterday morning will usually have been interpreted as a joke or as a dig at the left. But actually it makes a serious point. Diversity of ideas is a great strength in most teams.

Quote of the day 7th January 2020

"Hand on heart, did we deserve to win the general election? 

"Probably not, so the British public got it right."

(Sadiq Khan, Labour Mayor of London. I don't often agree with Mayor Khan, but I'm certainly not going to argue with him on this one.)

Monday music spot: Overture from Solomon (Arrival of the Queen of Sheba)

Quote of the day 6th January 2020

Twelfth Night music spot: "Three Kings" from King's

Today is Twelfth Night, the last of the twelve days of Christmas, as the church starts to look to Epiphany, the arrival of the Magi (also known as the Wise Men, or in mythology the Three Kings.)

So what more appropriate piece for the last music spot of this Christmas season than "Three Kings from Persian Lands Afar" sung by the choir of King's college Cambridge?

Swimathon 2020

I have signed up for Swimathon 2020, to swim 5000 metres at Copeland pool in Hensingham.

Swimathon is the world's largest swimming charity fundraising event. Between 27th and 29th March, I will be one of more than 21,000 swimmers who head down to their local pool, or one of more than 600 swimming pools around the UK which are taking part, to raise money for two incredibly important charities.

I have taken part in the Swimathon every year since 1994 to help a wide variety of important causes, but there is none more important than helping people living with cancer.

Cancer Research UK, the world’s leading cancer charity is dedicated to saving lives through funding research to help prevent, diagnose and treat cancer. Cancer Research UK are the only charity fighting over 200 cancer types but don't receive any government funding for their work, so their progress is all thanks to the support of people like you.

Marie Curie provides expert care, guidance and support for people living with any terminal illness, and their families. Around 2,100 Marie Curie Nurses work day and night, in people’s homes all over the UK, providing hands-on care to people when they need it most.

Together those who take part in and support events like Swimathon 2020 can make a difference.

Please sponsor me or other participants to help find more effective cures for cancer and to help people who are living with the condition.

My Swimathon 2020 fundraising page is here.

Thank you again to everyone who has sponsored me for past Swimathon events (and the person who has already sponsored me for 2020 in the short time between my putting up my JustGiving page and writing this post!) and thank you in advance to everyone who sponsors me or other participants this year and in the future.

Quote of the day 5th January 2020

Saturday Christmas music spot: "For unto us a Child is born" (Handel)

Quote of the day 4th January 2020

Friday carol spot: "In Dulci Jubilo" (J. S. Bach arrangement)

Quote of the day 3rd January 2020

2020 New Year's Honours list

I don't know how I managed to miss it, but in addition to the Cumbrians I have already mentioned, Gina Tiller, who was Chair of the North Cumbria University Hospitals Trust until last year, was also awarded the MBE in the 2020 New Year's Honours list.

The list of Cumbrians honoured includes:

• Paul Foster, departing head of Sellafield, CBE for "services to business" 
• John Hudson, BAE Systems, CBE for "services to the Royal Navy and to Naval Shipbuilding and Design." 
• Sascha Hilary Wells-Munro of Kendal, OBE "for services to the NHS and patient safety." 
• Ben Stokes of Cockermouth and the England cricket team, OBE "for Services to Sport." 
• Professor John Howarth, Deputy Chief Executive of the North Cumbria Integrated Care NHS Trust and local GP, MBE for "services to General Practice." 
• Gina Tiller, former Chair of NCUH, MBE "for services to healthcare in Cumbria." 
• Elizabeth Cornford of Grange-over-Sands, MBE "for services to Young People." 
• John Butler of Ulverston, MBE, "for services to Further Education." 
• Mark McCree of Kendal, British Empire Medal (BEM) "for services to Public Libraries." 
• John Shakeshaft of Ulverston, BEM "for services to Young People in Ulverston." 
• Cassandra Rees of Greenheys, BEM "for services to the Community in Cumbria."

Thursday Carol: In The Bleak Midwinter, Gustav Holst version

Yesterday's carol was "In the Bleak mid-winter" set to music by Harold Darke.

But there is an equally lovely version set to music by Gustav Holst …

Quote of the day 2nd January 2020

1.6 million and counting

One the first day of the new year and the new decade the number of page views on this blog has passed the 1.6 million mark,

Thank you to everyone who visited during the last fifteen years and I hope you found it interesting.

All the best to all of you for future and I hope you will find this blog interesting in the new decade too.

Predictions for 2020

It seems to be fashionable at this season to make predictions for what is going to happen in the new year, So here is my thoughts on what will happen over the next twelve months.

1) Britain will leave the EU, with a withdrawal agreement, on 31st January 2020

2) The relationship between the UK and Scottish governments will continue to be difficult

3) Reform of local government including greater devolution will be taken more seriously and begin to make more progress

4) There will be more investment in the NHS and in Britain's transport infrastructure, including and especially in the North.

5) Negotiations between Britain and the EU on a new Trade deal will be noisy, controversial and difficult, but a deal will eventually be struck, probably in the early hours of the morning and the very last possible day to do so, by the end of the year.

A Carol for the New Year: In the Bleak Midwinter (Darke)

It is still the Christmas season for another five days, so here is a New Year's day carol:

"In the Bleak Mid-winter" set to music by Harold Darke, sung by King's Cambridge.

First post of the new decade: Quote of the day for 1st January 2020

My last post of 2019: Ring Out Wild Bells

Winners and Losers of 2019

As we come to the end of a year in which it has more than once been the case that people with opposite opinions have voted the same way, each gambling that blocking the "centre" position will break things their way, it is worth seeing who called it right.

It' wasn't always the side who one would have expected. I am reminded of a statement by Lord Melbourne:

WINNER OF THE YEAR:

Boris Johnson

He pretends to be a clown but he is nobody's fool. I think it is time to recognise that the PM is a far smarter political operator than any of his enemies or some of his friends give him credit for.

Yes, he's been lucky, especially in his political opponents. But he made some of his own luck - and exploited with ruthless effectiveness what was gifted to him.

LOSER OF THE YEAR:

Jeremy Corbyn

And thank God for the good sense of the British electorate in making it so.



WINNERS WHO OVERPLAYED THEIR HAND BUT GOT AWAY WITH IT:

The ERG and supporters of a hard (not "no deal") Brexit.

I remain convinced that the ERG and those who voted against the Theresa May deal because they wanted a harder Brexit were taking a huge risk of ending up with no Brexit at all. They got what they wanted for three reasons

1) Boris Johnson

2) In the end, amazingly to some of us, the hard Brexit supporters turned out to be more pragmatic and have better judgement than the ultra-Remainders and Soft Brexit supporters and to have a better idea of when to declare victory and take what was on the table. To be precise, Boris Johnson did, and they had the sense to follow him.

3) The proponents of a "soft Brexit" or no Brexit at all turned out to be more divided and far more incompetent than the supporters of a hard Brexit.

LOSERS WHO OVERPLAYED THEIR HAND AND DIDN'T GET AWAY WITH IT

The DUP

The outcome of the 2017 general election handed the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland what amounted to a veto over the policies of the UK government. For two years they were in an immensely strong position in parliament.

But although I think the DUP deserve a massively more sympathetic hearing than they ever get from  the mainstream British press or political class, most of whom understand Ireland even less well than they understand quantum physics (e.g. not at all), the fact remains that the DUP massively overplayed their hand.
A government which was effectively at their mercy has transformed into one which does not need them in the slightest and is nearly as fed up with the DUP as they are with Boris Johnson. This is not healthy, but I don't see it being put right any time soon.


JO SWINSON  and the Liberal Democrats.

The joke has been made so many times as to become a cliché that the leader of the "Liberal Democrats" pursued a policy which was neither liberal nor democratic.

That's because it is true.

Stephen Bush has put forward the most credible explanation for her disastrous decision to tell 17.4 million people that she didn't give a damn what they voted for - that she was expecting Labour to move to an all-out remain position and needed to outflank them, and Boris Johnson to go for a no-deal position which would have made Leave far more frightening. In the event Boris got a deal where Corbyn stayed on the fence, leaving Jo Swinson stranded on an extreme position.

The only sad thing about her losing her seat is that she lost it to the party which is arguably the most destructive force in 21st century British politics. 

REMAIN "ULTRAS"

Whether they were former Conservatives, Labour, Green or Lib/Dem, those who decided to save the electorate from itself and set themselves up to stop Brexit were putting themselves against the British voters. This rarely ends well, and it didn't end well for them.

They made it worse for themselves because the opponents of Brexit were hopelessly divided, hence the inability of the last House of Commons to pass almost anything positive - they knew what they were against but there never seemed to be a majority in that house for any practical course of action which was actually on the table, unless they put in some "poison pill" like the Letwin amendment.

They also greatly overestimated their support among the public - as they found out at 10pm on 12th December.



And finally:

You will notice that I have said nothing about the North of England, made only one passing reference to Scotland, and have not yet commented on the future of the Labour and Conservative parties.

The Brexit story, the future of the Labour and Conservative parties, and of Scotland, are tales which are not yet finished.

If the Labour party has the sense to take defeat in 2019 as the signal to reject Corbynism and move back to the centre, that defeat could for them be a blessing in excellent disguise.

Alternatively, if the Conservatives can deliver on our promises to the North, deliver a Brexit which people see as successful, and deliver our promises for the NHS, we could be in power into the 2030's.

If Conservatives are foolish enough to imagine that we won big because people love us, rather than being angry with the establishment over Brexit and having decided that they would rather say off their own right arms with a rusty hacksaw than make Jeremy Corbyn PM, this victory could turn to ashes faster than anyone expects.

We have an urgent repair job to do on the Union between Scotland and the rest of the UK. I don't know what's going to happen next, but Scotland is going to be one of the re-elected government's biggest challenges.

All that is for the future. Welcome to the 2020's!

The Economist on the difference between lying, mistakes, falsehoods and nonsense.

There is an excellent article by the Economist on calling out politicians and others who say things which are not true - and when we should accuse them of lying, talking nonsense, exaggerating, misleading people, or making a mistake.

If you are registered to read the Economist online, you can find a text version here.

There is also a very good video version featuring Lane Greene, the Economist's language correspondent who I presume to have been the main author of the article, with similar but not quite identical script and this is available to watch via twitter here

or on YouTube, which will play if you click on the window below -



As they rightly say (in the print version)

"Journalists should be tough when powerful people say untrue things. When those statements first hit the headlines, “false” packs plenty of punch. Reporters should demand to know the reason for the false statements."

But, to quote the video version, after encouraging people to use words like "nonsense" and "exaggeration" where those are more appropriate, Lane Green argues that:

"Using these exact terms will only make it more effective when we catch powerful people red-handed in a true, no-doubt-about-it, lie."

RPI versus CPI

There is no perfect measure of inflation.

I was challenged the other day for quoting the Retail Price Index (RPI) which was described as a "discredited measure."

I don't accept that but I do accept that it might have been helpful to quote both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and RPI measures and I have gone back and changed the post concerned to do so.

There are various ways to measure inflation and about the only thing which most economists and statisticians agree on is that no one measure is ideal for every purpose.

In my professional work I would usually look at all the main measures to get the best picture of what is going on and then use whichever seemed most relevant to the specific target group.

There is considerable disagreement among economists and statisticians about whether the RPI or the CPI is the better measure of inflation. But many would concur with the view which the distinguished economist and statistician Simon Briscoe of the gave in a note produced for the Royal Statistical Society (RSS) meeting held on 13 June 2018, as follows:

"There are many different purposes for a price index. No one price index fulfils any one of those stated purposes perfectly. No one index is perfect for all purposes. Considering the purpose of the price index is the obvious starting point for analysing its appropriateness."

I think that the RPI should be a tool in the locker, but the RPI advisory committee which ran for forty years until Gordon Brown's unwise decision to scrap it should be re-created, so that proper governance is in place which might have prevented the problems which the House of Lords recommended in January this year should be fixed.

If you use only RPI then I think there is a risk that you will overestimate the level of inflation, except during severe recessions.

If you use only CPI then I think there is a risk that you will underestimate the underlying level, and you may miss one warning indicator, the two diverging, which can indicate an unbalanced economy.,

You'll also miss a good recession indicator warning - when RPI goes lower than CPI.

Incidentally there are also governance issues with the CPI.

I am sympathetic to the view that the current policy of governments of all parties to "cherry pick" which index to use by uprating charges in line with RPI but using CPI to index payments, while helpful to the national finances, looks unfair to those who have to pay the former and receive the latter. We need a more consistent policy.

There ARE some economists who don't like RPI at all and would scrap it, but I think the recommendation which the House of Lords took in January 2019 - keep it as one of a package of measures but fix the issues they highlighted - is a more balanced view.