Chris Whiteside's Blog

 

🚨 NEW Westminster Voting Intention Conservative: 21% (+1) Reform UK: 21% (-) Labour: 19% (+1) Green: 18% (-2) Lib/Dem: 11% (-) Via Lord Ashcroft Polls @LordAPolls Fieldwork, 21-26 May (+/- vs 27 Apr)

 

 

Out this evening in Hawcoats with our excellent candidate for a council by-election. More details coming shortly. And to relax after getting home, Elizabethan Serenade by Ronald Binge.(Paintings by Vladimir Volegov)

 

 Westminster Voting Intention: Reform:                          24% (-1) Conservative:               19% (+1) Labour:                           17% (=) Green:                             16% (+1) Lib/Dem:                         14% (=) Restore:                             3% (-1) SNP:                                    3% (=) Via @YouGov, 25-26 May. Changes wrt 17-18 May.

 

 

The new Star wars film, "The Mandalorian and Grogu" brought the characters from the streaming show "The Mandalorian" to the big screen today as it was released in cinemas. Here is the theme music: And here is a link to a review: Instant review of "The Mandalorian and Groghu

On the government's decision to allow the purchase of Russian oil refined in third countries: General Lord Richard Dannatt, the former head of the Army: “ This is a morally bankrupt move by a Government focused much more on short-term popularity and not on issues of greater significance, namely the lives of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians.  Shameful is the word that comes to mind. ” Phil Ingram, a former colonel in Army intelligence, accused Labour of “ playing politics with people’s lives ” and said the move was an “immoral” and “ sickening act ”. Come on Starmer, you've U-turned on everything else, another urgent U-turn needed on this one.

Congratulations to councillor Adam Brierley and his team on this fantastic result: Votes cast: Con 1,185    60% (+33%) Ref 534        27% (+27%) Lab 129          7% (-13%) Lib 107           5% (+5%) Conservative GAIN from Independent (No independent candidate this time)

 Send Keir Starmer a message.  Sign our petition to Get Britain Drilling ⬇️ You can sign our petition at: Back British Oil

The following passage was being shared on X today. The people who posted it said it was a quote from  Woody Allen. I have not been able to verify whether this quote really comes from him, but whoever wrote it, I am republishing it because it is powerful. "I always thought the biggest advantage of New York was that you could be neurotic and nobody noticed. In other cities, they send you to the doctor if you talk to yourself. In Manhattan, they offer you a column in a magazine for it. Yesterday I went out to buy salmon. By the way, it's the only stable Jewish tradition that's survived Babylon, Rome, and my relationships with women. I was walking through Brooklyn thinking about death. Not because I'm a philosopher. But because I'm already over ninety, though originally I'd planned to make it to seventy at most. And suddenly—a crowd in front of a synagogue. At first I thought a famous psychoanalyst was performing there. In New York, people line up for hours to hear...

 Kemi Badenoch has set out the Conservative policy agenda to put Britain back on track:

 

I see that my friend Michael Winstanley, a former Mayor of Wigan who was my immediate predecessor as Chairman of the Conservative Party in the North West, has been adopted as the Conservative candidate in Makerfield. Michael is a really nice guy, a loyal friend, a man of great integrity, and would be an excellent MP for Makerfield,

  As Kemi Badenoch put it, "After 18 months of “standing up to Putin” the Labour govt quietly issued a licence allowing imports of Russian oil refined in third countries. Yesterday Labour MPs voted AGAINST UK oil and gas licences. We are now importing from Russia instead of drilling in the North Sea. Insane."

 

 

Some of the most infuriating, and destructive, people to deal with in a democracy, are the monomaniacs who can never accept that an issue has been decided. This particularly applies to extreme nationalists of any stripe and extreme anti-nationalists opposed to them who cannot treat the question of whether the country they identify with should be part of a larger unit or not as resolved other than in the way they believe right, and when they lose a democratic vote start organising a new campaign from the very next day for a new vote to try to reverse the result. There is a difference between a vote on whether or not to break up a particular country, or pull a country out of a complex and deeply integrated international union, and an election which puts party A rather than  party B in as the government of a country. In the latter case it is entirely reasonable for people who support party B, or indeed C, D or E,  to campaign to gain or regain office at the following schedule ele...

 

"Knowledge can be enormously costly, and is often scattered in widely uneven fragments, too small to be individually usable in decision making. The communication and coordination of these scattered fragments of knowledge is one of the basic problems- perhaps the basic problem- of any society." Thomas Sowell

 

"If NATO is lucky, they can join Ukraine." Garry Kasparov

"The best negotiator with Russia is still the Ukrainian army." Marko Mihkelson   Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of Estonian Parliament. 

With the news that there will be a by-election in Makerfield, hat tip to Deuxvingarian for thoughts on a new volunteer canvasser Reform UK might get ...   For the avoidance of doubt, this is a joke and I will be there canvassing for the Conservative candidate. POSTSCRIPT Deuxvingarian also suggested an even more effective way for Sir Keir Starmer to sabotage Andy Burnham ... POST POSTSCRIPT   I'm still backing the Conservative candidate

 Health Secretary Wes Streeting has resigned from the government, saying "Where we need vision we have a vacuum, where we need direction we have drift." The above quote is from Streeting's resignation letter.

Kemi Badenoch is the leader Britain needs  

  "There is no lie your opponent can tell about you that hurts as keenly as an uncomfortable truth." (Stephen Daisley , from his article on Kemi Badenoch's response to the King's Speech, see blogpost at Stephen Daisley on Kemi's reply to the King's Speech .)

Treasury Minister Torsten Bell commenting on being rude today compared with Torsten Bell being rude himself last September ...   Hat tip to Jason Groves @JasonGroves1

Journalist Stephen Daisley wrote in the Telegraph that opposition leader Kemi Badenoch "has just shown what a real leader looks like" as she skewered of the government in the debate on the King'" s Speech: "As Keir Starmer’s premiership circles the drain, with his colleagues desperately trying to flush away an election-winner they now regard as an embarrassment, it fell to Kemi Badenoch to tell the Prime Minister and his Government where they had gone wrong. Emily Thornberry protested at being “lectured”, and indeed it was a lecture – a forensic and devastating analysis of a party that had 14 years to prepare for power but has run out of steam after only two. In a sometimes humorous but mostly bracing response to the King’s Speech, the Conservative leader told the Prime Minister: “ Leadership is about having a vision for this country. It’s about having the courage to take difficult decisions, persuading your party that those difficult decisions will pay off in...

"In an era when we are heartily sick of politicians making crazy promises which they cannot keep, it's strange to think the answer is to support ones whose promises are crazier still." Charles Moore , perhaps the best line of this excellent article.

Lord Ashcroft has an important interview with Ukraine's former Chief Diplomat Dmytro Kuleba which has been published on his website and on Conservative Home. Here are some key extracts. "As the war in the Middle East draws global attention away from Ukraine, the Russia-Ukraine war is only intensifying. The spring campaign is now in full swing causing substantial casualties on the battlefield. At the same time, Ukraine has mastered its strategy of conducting deep strikes against Russian oil refineries, forcing Russia’s Vladimir Putin to state over the weekend that the war may be nearing its end and the trilateral talks between the US, Ukraine and Russia may finally be on the horizon. "With the world’s focus increasingly fixed on Iran and the wider region, I sat down with one of Ukraine’s most prominent voices – its former foreign minister and now a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center, Dmytro Kuleba – to discuss the trajectory of the war...

 The contradiction at the heart of Reform UK's  welfare policy ...

"Keir Starmer’s speech was sad to watch. With so many resets, even his reset button needs a reset. But I do not take pleasure in watching the Prime Minister flounder. The country needs leadership, not another speech from a man who clearly knows something has gone badly wrong, but still can't explain why. This is Labour’s real problem. It is not just Starmer - all the pretenders jostling for his job do not have the answers either, because they all believe the same things: more welfare, more state control, more borrowing, more regulation. They are busy arguing over who should drive the car, but the truth is they are all heading in the wrong direction. They have no vision for the future. What we need is to get Britain working again. That is why I have proposed an alternative King’s Speech with a a clear plan to reward effort, cut the cost of government, secure our borders, rebuild industry and back families who do the right thing. If Labour are serious about fixing the country th...

From X, referring of the difficulty that to succeed Sir Keir Starmer as PM, the Greater Manchester Mayor, Andy Burnham, would have to become an MP - which means winning a by-election.  Allison Pearson " I'm looking forward to Burnham finding a 'safe' Labour seat. " Daily Referendum " I doubt Burnham could find a safe seat in DFS. "

1) What journalist Will Hutton wrote about the Labour 2024 manifesto in June 2024 2) What journalist Will Hutton wrote about the Labour 2024 manifesto today

 Rishi Sunak has written this in The Times:

"It was great to attend the big protest on Whitehall against anti-Jewish hate and racism.  It was attended by many British Jews but also many many British friends and supporters who are alarmed as we are by the darkening horizon here.   The Chief Rabbi spoke very well.   The biggest and warmest cheers were when Kemi Badenoch took the stage and her unvarnished passionate support for British Jews and against extremism racism calumnies and violence that the community faces.  She really has shown great leadership and courage here.    Thanks to other speakers from Labour, Liberal Democrats and Reform. Thanks for everyone who came especially non Jewish friends: you are so appreciated." Simon Sebag Montefiore on yesterday's rally against antisemitism.

"With all 136 English councils counted: Reform gained 1,451 seats Labour lost 1,496 seats  Tories lost 563 seats Greens gained 441 seats LibDems gained 155 seats  In other news north of the border: The SNP won 58 seats with a 33% share of the vote (need 65 for a majority).  In the previous 2021 Holyrood elections they won 64 seats with a 44% share of the vote.  So down six seats and 11 percentage points on five years ago.  Not quite the momentum for independence the Nats are claiming. Will be quite easy for Westminster to bat away calls for another Indy ref." Andrew Neil on X (formerly Twitter) today Let's compare with the Peter Kellner table: The figures given by Andrew Neil at the top of this post are seats gained and lost. As a reminder when the pollster More in Common compared votes gained with the polls they found this:

"Labour: losses everywhere. Reform: good gains made by burning thru ~£8mn (10x what you usually spend on locals) yet did worse than last year. Conservatives: progress on last year, losses in counties set to be abolished but best London results since 2006. Read more below👇 in my Telegraph article where I explain why, despite the setbacks, I'm encouraged with our results this week. The Conservative Party is rebuilding steadily, seriously and with purpose. We are not asking people to forget the past but to judge us by what we do next." Rt Hon Kemi Badenoch Link to Telegraph article: The Conservatives’ green shoots of recovery are clear. Judge us by what we do next

"Why would the Tories get into bed with a party with which, immigration aside, they have about as much in common as with Labour?  It would not 'unite the right'. It would be an incoherent mess and disintegrate within about ten minutes." Matthew Syed points in an article in The Times out one of the many reasons why a Tory/Reform pact - which I am certain is not on the cards - would be a mistake.

I am not a huge fan of using local elections as a measure of the strength of national political parties instead of a mechanism for picking the best people to run local services. I am convinced that local services would be run far better and people would have a higher quality of life if they more often voted for the person who would make the best local councillor instead of using the local elections to reward or punish whoever is in government. But if people ARE going to use the local elections as a guide to the state of the parties, they might as well be given the right information to do it. There have been a lot of misleading posts on social media about the "National Equivalent Vote" shares, many of them based on preliminary or out of date numbers, or just made up! These are the final / definitive figures (via @EdConwaySky) 👇 Reform 27% Conservatives 20% Labour 15% Greens 14% LibDem 14% Other 10%

Yesterday's music spot was Vivaldi's concerto for four violins, This is what Bach did with it ...

 Patrick Maguire in The Times

This is the current numbers of councillors elected and net gains and losses, with results from 12 of 136 councils declared (so thirteen councils to go and numbers will rise slightly): This is what Peter Kellner suggested a week ago would be the reaction of the parties to various results: So with a few councils to go, the Conservatives have passed the level Peter Kellner thought would be "Relief,"  Labour, the Lib/Dems and Greens are respectively just on, a little above, or a little below what he suggested would be "Disappointment." And Reform have not quite hit the number of gains Peter Kellner marked down as "Disaster." Kellner himself admitted that in a normal year these assessments would be ridiculous, but this is NOT a normal year, There have been enough Conservative holds - and a few quite significant gains - that I think "Relief" is a pretty accurate assessment of the reaction of most Conservatives. It could have been so much worse. And if ...

 

Kemi Badenoch writes "I know everyone is poring over election results, but let’s not forget… Today is VE Day. It’s still living memory and being able to have elections is one of the freedoms fought for. That freedom was bought by men and women who served our country. Even now our veterans need defending. The battles are different…like stopping brave veterans being dragged through the courts for vexatious claims in their old age. Conservatives continue to fight.  Just yesterday, the Supreme Court reinstated immunities after my Shadow Attorney General, Lord Wolfson stepped in, acted pro bono for veterans, and won. We’re the only party doing the work. On VE Day, we remember their sacrifice. But remembrance is not enough. We should also honour our veterans by looking after them and defending them in Parliament, in the courts just as they defended us."

This is Vivaldi's original - Bach's arrangement of Vivaldi's music tomorrow

Based on the overnight results, here is an extract from what Peter Kellner wrote about wat the elections say about support for the various political parties. "Welcome to multiparty politics. The overnight results from English councils confirm the story told by recent polls: Reform UK is out in front, Labour is in deep trouble, the Conservatives may have begun to recover, the Greens have gained ground, and the Liberal Democrats are doing well where they have a chance of victory. "This morning we can go further. The results so far add new information, and also provoke questions about how politics might evolve between now and the next general election. 1. Behind the impressive tally of Reform’s gains – likely to end up well over 1,000 – Nigel Farage should be privately worried. In last year’s local elections Reform won 41 per cent of all seats contested across England. On the basis of the overnight figures, this year’s tally is around 33 per cent. If there were no polls, and the...

Luke Tyle of he pollster "More in Common" has published a chart on witter showing how the five main parties performed in yesterday's local elections on results declared by 8.25 am this morning  compared to the current opinion polls. It shows the Conservatives outperforming the polls by about 6%, and Reform UK by about 3%, while Labour scored about what you might expect from the opinion polls, the Greens underperformed by about 2% and the Lib/Dems underperformed by about 5%. All the parties seem to have done well in particular places with excellent results for the Conservatives not just in traditional areas of strength such as Westminster, where the party took back overall control from Labour, and Wandsworth where seats regained from Labour have again made the Conservatives the largest party, but also places like Harlow council, which I remember as a former Labour stronghold although the Conservatives have been running it in the recent past. Reform UK were claiming they ex...

The Conservatives have retaken Westminster City Council from Labour.

“I do not know a greater shame and ‘national humiliation’ in all of Russian military history than this current war. And when someone tries to compare it to the Great Patriotic War — despite all the horrors, bloodshed, and butchers on both sides under Stalin’s totalitarian regime — such a comparison is a sin. Because that was a defensive war. The Ukrainians, on the other hand, will always be proud of this current war — for them, it is their Patriotic War, the Great Patriotic War of the Ukrainian people against the invader. Unfortunately, in this case, the invaders are our [Russian] people.” (Prominent Russian historian Yuri Pivovarov )

Polls are now closed for the local elections. To all our volunteers, canvassers, doorknockers, activists, members, supporters and voters... Thank you!

Polls have now closed in the elections for the Scottish Parliament, the Welsh Senedd, and for many, though not all, councils in England. Results will come in through the night beginning in the early hours of tomorrow morning. If you stay up to watch a results programme, here is a reminder of what some phrases you are certain to hear from various political guests actually mean.  

 If you are planning to vote in today's local elections, the polling stations are open until 10pm

 

 

REMEMBER - in local elections in England YOU WLL NEED PHOTO ID such as a passport or drivers' licence to vote. Polls are open 7am to 10pm.

Not everywhere has elections tomorrow: Cumbria and North Yorkshire are among the places which don't. But here are elections for the Scottish parliament and Welsh Senedd, and a large number of areas in England are electing councillors, mayors, or both. Here is Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch's take on them. " Today I have been from Wandsworth to Croydon, Bromley to Enfield, and Barnet to Harrow and Hillingdon, and one thing is clear: only the Conservatives have a serious plan to get Britain working again. Tomorrow, vote Conservative for a stronger economy and a stronger country. " Kemi Badenoch

“Today’s guilty verdict is a significant step toward justice, but it does not undo the life-altering trauma inflicted upon Kate. No officer should go to work simply to uphold the law and return home with a fractured spine.” Tom Gent, chair of Avon and Somerset Police Federation, referring to the guilty verdict yesterday against Palestine Action terrorist Samuel Corner who was convicted of causing grevious bodily harm to police sergeant Kate Evans, whom he hit in the back with a sledgehammer.

Four members of Palestine action who broke into a factory in Filton near Bristol and smashed the place up with sledgehammers have been convicted of criminal damage. Charlotte Head, 29; Samuel Corner, 23; Leona Kamio, 30; and Fatema Rajwani, 21, were all found guilty on Tuesday of smashing up property, including drones and computers, manufactured or used by Elbit Systems at its factory in Filton, near Bristol, on 6 August 2024. The jury at Woolwich crown court heard that the activists used sledgehammers and crowbars they had brought with them to destroy computers, drones, and other equipment, and used fire extinguishers to spray red paint across the walls and floor. Corner was also found guilty by a majority of 11 to one of inflicting grievous bodily harm on Police Sergeant Kate Evans, whom he hit in the back with a sledgehammer. Deanna Heer KC, for the prosecution, told the court that Corner hit Evans in the back with a 7lb (3.2kg) sledgehammer – while she was on all fours facing away ...

"If only we had more politicians like Kemi Badenoch." Stephen Pollard on X (4) Stephen Pollard on X: "If only we had more politicians like @KemiBadenoch" / X

" May the 4th be with you " was first used by the Conservative and Unionist party - as a message to it's leader, Margaret Thatcher, who became Britain's first woman Prime Minister on 4th May 1979 after winning the general election the previous day.

 

Kemi Badenoch posted today: "You may not agree with me, but you will always know where you stand  with me. "Today in Billericay, a heckler tried to shout me down as I spoke about the normalisation of hatred towards Jews. I did not back down, because it needs to be said. British Jews are being targeted and too many people are pretending this is the same experience of other minorities. This lady implied Muslims are being similarly targeted. This is simply not true. Let's be honest about what is happening.  Certain groups (in particular but not solely Islamic Extremists) are creating a climate of fear and intimidation that is normalising Jew hatred. I will never stand for that. Governments have spent too long hand-wringing, making excuses and hoping it would go away. It is time to call this what it is: a national emergency in our attitude, our urgency and our response. I will always engage with people who disagree with me. That is politics. But there is a difference between ...

A question particularly apposite to today. Which organisation first coined the phrase " May the 4th be with you " on 4th May 1979 and as a complement to who?  If you want to submit an answer please put it in the comments. The correct answer will be confirmed  tomorrow morning. 

"The ability to speak does not make you intelligent." (Liam Neeson as Qui-Gon Jinn in Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace (1999).