Duff prediction of the decade ...
One of the traps facing anyone in politics is the temptation to believe what you want to believe rather than what is actually true. That's one of the reasons why I am advising my fellow Conservatives that we cannot take victory at the next election for granted but need to keep working on the right policies for Britain and to persuade the voters that a vote for us is not just the most effective way to get rid of Labour but a vote for a positive change.
I quote the comment below as an example of the way it is possible to misread a political situation if you listen only to what you want to hear. I was going back over some of the discussion on Nick Robinson's blog, when I found this prediction which was posted the day before the C&N by-election. Probably the duff prediction of the decade, but nevertheless a dreadful warning of how out of touch a political activist can get ...
At 09:35 am on 21 May 2008, Gary Elsby wrote:
"I spent yesterday in Crewe and Nantwich canvassing for Labour.
I spotted a lonely Conservative Poster delightfully taking centre stage above Gwyneth's Constituency office, rented out to a solicitor (how low do Tories wish to get?).
The remainder of the building was plastered in 'Vote Tamsin' posters.
Everywhere around the Constituency, Labour posters are proudly on display with only a scattering of Lib Dem posters.
Nowhere is a 'Tory boy' Timpson poster to be seen, after all, this is Crewe and Nantwich and not the old Kings road!
I spoke to everyone I saw and all but one couple were voting Labour.
The odd couple were very concerned about the 10p tax fiasco and had not made their mind up yet.
My view of what I have seen personally is that the media have bulled up a false Conservative victory and that the class war campaign has been a runaway success.
Dave should give up on a 2010 Conservative victory, step aside and allow No.6 to come in and take the reins."
I wish every Labour candidate at the next election that kind of "runaway success" and hope every Tory learns, inwardly digests, and remembers the lesson that this kind or arrogance and complacency is destroying the New Labour government just as it wrecked our position in the 1990s.