A Copeland anecdote
A few weeks ago a Lib/Dem blogger who uses the non-de-plume "Yellow Submarine" posted the anecdote below on a "Political Betting" thread. The following day, when asked which seat he had been talking about, "Yellow Submarine" subsequently confirmed that the constitutency concerned was Copeland.
"Anecdote Alert: I spent a week recently in a northern Labour constituency that survived the 1983 Falklands landslide. Labour activists I went to school with talked openly about being “in deep ****” and ” completely ****ed”. They are fighting for their lives and think there is a realistic prospect they’ll lose the seat.
One particulalry telling exchange was about the “guilt” some canvassers were experiencing because there was so much direct Lab/BNP switching going on they thought it might just save them as a certain sort of person just wouldn’t vote Tory ( This bizarre heirarchy of stigma tells you a lot about some WWC areas). However the most shocking thing about the whole exchange was it became clear after a while that the main purpose of the pub invitation was to get *my* advice on their campaign strategy.
WTF?"
by Yellow Submarine November 9th, 2009 at 9:54 am
With regard to where the BNP vote in Copeland is coming from, there is no doubt in my mind that about half of it is people who otherwise would not have voted. For the rest, the friends "Yellow Submarine" was taking to are almost certainly right that there is a lot of Labour/BNP switching going on. Some of it from people who would never dream of voting Tory.
I expect the result in Copeland to be extremely close, and neither the Conservatives nor Labour can take the seat for granted: it really could go either way.
"Anecdote Alert: I spent a week recently in a northern Labour constituency that survived the 1983 Falklands landslide. Labour activists I went to school with talked openly about being “in deep ****” and ” completely ****ed”. They are fighting for their lives and think there is a realistic prospect they’ll lose the seat.
One particulalry telling exchange was about the “guilt” some canvassers were experiencing because there was so much direct Lab/BNP switching going on they thought it might just save them as a certain sort of person just wouldn’t vote Tory ( This bizarre heirarchy of stigma tells you a lot about some WWC areas). However the most shocking thing about the whole exchange was it became clear after a while that the main purpose of the pub invitation was to get *my* advice on their campaign strategy.
WTF?"
by Yellow Submarine November 9th, 2009 at 9:54 am
With regard to where the BNP vote in Copeland is coming from, there is no doubt in my mind that about half of it is people who otherwise would not have voted. For the rest, the friends "Yellow Submarine" was taking to are almost certainly right that there is a lot of Labour/BNP switching going on. Some of it from people who would never dream of voting Tory.
I expect the result in Copeland to be extremely close, and neither the Conservatives nor Labour can take the seat for granted: it really could go either way.
Comments
All so of interest is an item on politicalbetting.com. It shows an Ipsos MORI Poll. It asked Labour supporters (those who said they would vote Labour) if they were satisfied with the way Gordon Brown was doing his job as PM - 54% satisfied 34% dissatisfied 12% Don't know. Compared with Conservative voters satisfaction with DC's leadership of the Conservative Party. 78% satisfied 12% dissatisfied and 9% Don't know. Interesting and more worrying for Labour is that the 'detailed data' shows that 33% of declared Labour supporters say they are satisfied with DC's performance.
It must be very demoralising for Labour to be going into a General Election with a substantial number of its supporters dissatisfied with how Brown is doing his job. There were rumbles in the press this weekend of challenges from likes of David Milliband. I suspect the only reason no one is going for him is that they are not confident that it will be sufficient to ensure a Labour victory and the challenger will have little chance of being PM. After the election the pack will go for his jugular! The class war tactic is also causing divisions. Of note was the interview in the Sunday Telegraph with Tessa Jowell.
It is clear this election is not in the bag for anyone. In Copeland it will be a two horse race between Conservative and Labour. I hope Lib Dems and UKIP supporters realise this fact and don't waste their votes by effectively handing the seat on a plate to Jamie Reed.