Quote of the day 31st August 2014

"What is it we now want, guys? We're going to face a reckoning with the electorate in just over a year's time. We're two points behind the Labour Party. We can do this - we really can do this. If we lack discipline, we're going to have five or six appalling years in opposition to dwell on it."

(Douglas Carswell then a Conservative MP, warning his colleagues earlier this year not to do anything which might risk helping Labour win the 2015 election.)

It is difficult to think of anything Douglas Carswell could have done to cause a bigger increase in the risk of a Labour victory in 2015, which he rightly predicted would lead to five appalling years for Britain, than his actions this week.

Comments

Jim said…
Perhaps Stuart Wheeler is spread betting here. If an expensive lunch at his favorite restaurant can sway enough Labour Candidates, then we increase the odds of another hung parliament.

in the event of a labour led coalition then its damage control, in the event of a tory led one, then its referendum "get out clause", same applies to a minority government.

It a case of trying to fragment the commons as much as possible to prevent any one getting an out right win. As i say there is method to the madness, if the EU referendum is your key issue, and you already know that a re-negotiation is what you REALLY want.

Which is the greater evil? - a closed EU question, not producing the result you want which ever way it goes (the impossible referendum, a bit like the AV referendum for a supporter of PR)

or is the greater evil a Labour government for a term?

that is the question Carswell faced, and his actions give his answer to it.
10:32 am
Jim said…
Trying to read him, I would say he is hoping for a tory minority. People say it risks a labour majority, but look at 1992.

there was a high possibility of a kinnock lead labour government. the more the voters realised that the more they went against it and John Major won his majority for another term.

now look at a milliband lead labour government and what do you think the voters would go for?

thus to spit the conservative party and prevent a tory majority is his aim.

I think he is hoping for a tory minority or tory lead coalition and no 2017 referendum.
10:43 am
Jim said…
Seems like a high gamble doesn't it. Enter the afore mentioned Stuart Wheeler and see 2 + 2 starts to equal 4
11:59 am
Tim said…
According to the latest poll the unConservative party are toast ! Good !
3:38 pm
Chris Whiteside said…
There is no box on the ballot paper for "Tory minority government" or "Labour minority government" and either would be a very difficult thing to deliberately bring about.

Tim, I don't know which poll you are thinking about: the national polls still suggest the general election in 2015 could be very close. The polls for Clacton suggest Carswell is currently well ahead in that specific seat.

However, any reputable pollster will stress to you that the results of their work are a snapshot of opinion at that point in time, not a guarantee of what will happen in a subsequent election.
12:26 am
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