The worst of all worlds
Last night's vote by the House of Commons, by the unexpectedly small margin of four votes, to take "No Deal" off the table does not actually do so.
Because of the way Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty is drafted, there are only two certain ways to take "no deal" off the table.
It will reduce still further any pressure on the EU to make further concessions.
But it doesn't actually take "No Deal" off the table, and there is still the possibility that a "No Deal" Brexit could come about by accident.
In this sense last night's vote was the worst of all worlds.
That the House of Commons would vote this way was not a surprise - this was always the likely consequence of the failure to agree a deal last night. But MPs on all sides need to think very carefully about the consequences of their actions.
Today MPs will vote on whether to ask the EU to agree a short deferral of article 50. For this to be agreed requires unanimous agreement by all 27 other member states. If we make such a request it can be very far from taken for granted that it will be agreed.
Because of the way Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty is drafted, there are only two certain ways to take "no deal" off the table.
- One is to pass a deal.
- The other is to revoke the Article 50 notification.
It will reduce still further any pressure on the EU to make further concessions.
But it doesn't actually take "No Deal" off the table, and there is still the possibility that a "No Deal" Brexit could come about by accident.
In this sense last night's vote was the worst of all worlds.
That the House of Commons would vote this way was not a surprise - this was always the likely consequence of the failure to agree a deal last night. But MPs on all sides need to think very carefully about the consequences of their actions.
Today MPs will vote on whether to ask the EU to agree a short deferral of article 50. For this to be agreed requires unanimous agreement by all 27 other member states. If we make such a request it can be very far from taken for granted that it will be agreed.
Comments
To quote Theresa May, though you would be forgiven from not hearing her over the racket from the other zoo animals.
"the House has to understand and accept that if it is not willing to support the deal in the coming days, and as it is not willing to support leaving without a deal on the 29th March, then it is suggesting that there will need to be a much longer extension to Article 50. Such an extension would undoubtedly require the United Kingdom to hold European Parliament elections in May 2019. I do not think that would be the right outcome, but the House needs to face up to the consequences of the decisions it has taken"
She is basically saying that if we cant make a deal, and no deal is off the table, then we simply cant leave
The deal which is currently (just) on the table would work, imperfect though it is, and deliver most of what the Leave campaigns said they wanted.
The trouble is that to get a majority for anything would require some of the MPs in the House of Commons to compromise and that is not a popular word at the moment.