Electoral Precedent
Is the sequence of leadership elections in which the favourite has never won about to come to an end?
In the whole history of Conservative party leadership elections, there has not - so far - been a single instance of a seriously contested election in which the person who was thought most likely to win a couple of days before the close of nominations has actually won.
It would still be wise not to completely rule out the possibility that things could still go wrong for the Boris Johnson campaign. Both Sajid Javid and Rory Stewart have impressed me, in very different ways, and neither the initial electorate of Conservative MPs or the final one for this race of Conservative party members are quite as homogenous or predictable in their views as a lot of people appear to think.
However, though it can seem for a long time that an unwritten rule like this one is in effect, an exception nearly always comes along sooner or later. It is beginning to look possible that this will be the first Conservative leadership election in which the favourite actually wins.
There was a very funny cartoon written before the 2012 US presidential election which listed how every single election from 1788 to 2008 had broken a precedent. You can find it at
https://xkcd.com/1122/
Some of the previously observed precedents about which candidate could win, were transparently silly, some of them, like "Nobody can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose" appeared reasonable and would still be expected to apply most of the time. (I think Hillary Clinton was only about the third candidate in 228 years to win the popular vote without carrying enough states to get a majority in the Electoral College and become President.)
But all of these "streaks" eventually did come to an end.
In the whole history of Conservative party leadership elections, there has not - so far - been a single instance of a seriously contested election in which the person who was thought most likely to win a couple of days before the close of nominations has actually won.
It would still be wise not to completely rule out the possibility that things could still go wrong for the Boris Johnson campaign. Both Sajid Javid and Rory Stewart have impressed me, in very different ways, and neither the initial electorate of Conservative MPs or the final one for this race of Conservative party members are quite as homogenous or predictable in their views as a lot of people appear to think.
However, though it can seem for a long time that an unwritten rule like this one is in effect, an exception nearly always comes along sooner or later. It is beginning to look possible that this will be the first Conservative leadership election in which the favourite actually wins.
There was a very funny cartoon written before the 2012 US presidential election which listed how every single election from 1788 to 2008 had broken a precedent. You can find it at
https://xkcd.com/1122/
Some of the previously observed precedents about which candidate could win, were transparently silly, some of them, like "Nobody can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose" appeared reasonable and would still be expected to apply most of the time. (I think Hillary Clinton was only about the third candidate in 228 years to win the popular vote without carrying enough states to get a majority in the Electoral College and become President.)
But all of these "streaks" eventually did come to an end.
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