Trump's so called "Peace Plan" for Ukraine is a recipe for more wars.
Whether and when Ukraine signs a peace deal with Russia should be a matter for the Ukrainian people and their elected government. It is not for us to tell them to fight on if Russia offers a peace deal which they find acceptable.
However, I think it would be both morally wrong and incredibly foolish for the West to pressure Ukraine to accept a peace deal which they regard as unacceptable while they are still willing to fight.
The worst part of President Trump's new "peace deal" is that it appears to have been cooked up without input from Ukraine.
There are those in the West who will tell you that Russia is winning the war. This is absolute nonsense. Putin thought he could conquer Ukraine in a few days. Three and a half years later Ukraine still exists and is still fighting. In one sense, every day that there is still a free Ukraine is a victory.
In another sense nobody is winning and the war is a disaster for both countries. Russia has probably lost more than a million casualties including between a quarter of a million and 350 thousand dead: Ukraine has suffered atrocious losses too.
No sane person should object to trying to end this disastrous war in a just manner which does not make further wars more likely and I do not criticise the US president for trying to find a peace.
I do criticise him for trying to bully Ukraine into accepting a peace plan they have had no part in framing and for supporting a peace which would make more wars more likely and, in all probability, more costly.
Putin has only been able to continue the war this long, in the face of losses which would have got any democratic regime voted out of office and most dictatorships overthrown, because he is supported by a military/security apparatus who fear that if he goes, they go, and because millions of Russians who would love to see the back of him are afraid, with good reason, that if they oppose him they will end up in prison or dead.
Winston Churchill once described Russia as a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma, and sorting out the facts from the regime propaganda on one side and wishful thinking on the other is amazingly difficult. But the combination of the war and sanctions cannot have done other than massive harm to Russia's economy and even a regime as ruthless as Putin's cannot sustain this situation forever.
I suspect the Russian President would love to pause the war on any terms he can present as a victory, realising that while Ukraine has the will to fight and is supported by the West he cannot conquer Ukraine, and has been hoping that Trump will force Zelensky to accept peace on Moscow's terms.
Sadly, the US administration appear to be playing into Putin's hands.
To quote Sky News, words like "Terrible", "weird", "peculiar" and "baffling" have been used to describe the Trump-Putin "Peace Plan" which make's Chamberlain's craven Munich peace agreement look like bold defiance of a dictator in comparison.
Never mind the fact that, at Russia's current rate of advance, it would take them another four years to take the land Trump is proposing to simply give them.
Put aside for the moment the possibility which some analysis are suggesting, that Russia's economy, and with it the Putin regime, may finally be getting close to collapse, but while it seems possible that Trump may ride to his rescue Putin will be able to keep the show on the road and the Russians who might otherwise be desperate enough to move against him will not do so.
The real reason this plan in its present form is stupid and unforgivable is this.
If Ukraine is forced to halve the size of it's army and give up some of it's most effective long-range weapons, and no foreign peacekeepers are to be allowed on Ukrainian soil, what happens in a couple of years when Putin has rebuilt his army and decides to come back for a second attempt to conquer the rest of the country?
Or what might happen if instead Russia decides NATO is a busted flush and tries to reconquer, say Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania? In that case we would have the choice of surrender or World War III.
And what will be the impact on China, casting acquisitive eyes on Taiwan, if Russia is seen to have gained from attacking Ukraine?
However terrible the costs of this war, the costs of a temporary "peace" which leaves Putin emboldened to try again, against Ukraine or another of his neighbours, could be even worse.
I can write what I think about Donald Trump, but the Presidents and Prime Ministers who actually have to deal with the man do not have that luxury
Zelensky, Starmer, Maron and Chancellor Merz will have to be diplomatic in their dealings with the US administration and try to persuade Trump him to modify this terrible plan rather than drop the whole thing. I hope they are successful in getting the White House to shift it's position. Because this so-called "Peace Plan" as it stands is simply a recipe for more and worse wars in the future.

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