Peter North on Kemi Badenoch's Conservatives.

For the avoidance of doubt, in reposting the tweet below by Peter North I am not endorsing every word of it and nor do I endorse many of the other things Peter has said in the past.

Nevertheless, I think his post today on why someone who was a harsh critic of the previous Conservative government is coming round to the possibility that he might vote for Kemi's Conservatives at the next election is extremely interesting.

I have published the whole thing below, leaving in a few bits which I personally disagree with - memo to the candidates' department, you don't need to purge me for not supporting Kemi on ECHR because I do support her - so that it will be clear that I am not using the all-too-common tactic of selective quotation.

This is what Peter North had to say today.

"There's a fact that many on the right, myself included, will not like at all. Though with caveats, @KemiBadenoch's Conservative Party is the party of the right most capable of forming a viable, stable government. It would not be an optimal government, but a vast improvement on the last go around even if they just implement their reversal of Net Zero. 

That singular fact influences how I will probably vote at the next election. Looking locally, I have a fairly reliable Tory MP who is well liked, knows the system, doesn't waste his time on social media, responds to letters, and his politics are in the right ballpark even if I think he's too mainstream. I'm not inclined to trade him in for some ranty unvetted paper candidate of no local standing who has no real idea how government works. 

I could vote for a more radical party but only if it were serious and showed some sign of organisational capability. But looking at the options, the alternatives can't even competently run their own parties let along a government. I'm not going to vote for a party whose policies were scribbled down on a fag packet over boozy lunch. I am not going to vote for a party that hasn't done its homework. 

I haven't yet seen what Badenoch's Culture and Integration Commission has to say, but I have seen Lord Wolfson's report on the ECHR - and if that is the standard of work we can expect (even though I do not believe we should leave the ECHR) then it is streets ahead of the alternatives. 

When it comes to policy, I'm not taken in by fanciful blank slate ideas. Every proposal has to acknowledge the environment in which it has to operate, and the kind of opposition it will face. Governments do not have absolute power, and most only ever achieve a fraction of what they want to do. As such, I judge a party on its realism and its priorities. 

For me, the absolute priority is immigration. On that score, I have looked at the proposals from the dissident right and I do not believe they understand the playing field at all. Yusuf's plan to deploy the Royal Navy looks to me like a gimmick that won't withstand first contact with reality. As to Uncle Rupe, I rather get the impression that neither he nor his supporters have even read their own policy. Once you start pulling at the loose threads, it soon falls apart. there is a certain Ukippy tinge to their thinking. 

You don't need to tell me how bad the Tories were in office or how little they achieved, nor do I believe they have changed enough. I don't trust them. But we're still back to the original point. They at least capable of forming a government where the alternatives are not.

Despite what the polls say, the Tories still have strong regional roots and most of the MPs who survived the 2024 purge will keep their seats in 2029, not least because they've put a lot of work in locally. They each know they are fighting for their political lives, and have made an effort to be seen on the ground. Meanwhile, Reform just puts on glitzy rallies and rolls out their tainted leader. There will be shy voters who won't put their head above the parapet to explain their choice, but will quietly conclude that the alternatives aren't up to scratch. 

When it comes to elections, campaigns tend to focus people's attentions, and will assess the parties more objectively. Badenoch is popular, and her supporting acts (Philps/Lam/Timothy/Whately et al) are a cut above the populist dross. They're putting the work in. Contrast these people with Sarah Pochin (well meaning but dim) and Richard Tice. Draw your own conclusions. 

I would prefer a competent party somewhere in the ballpark of Rupert Lowe, but his party is a Trojan Horse for grotbags and comically bigoted idiots for whom the competence mountain is too steep to climb. As such, it is for Reform to use the time remaining to prove they aren't a shambolic populist mess. But that requires leadership - which they simply do not have. Thus, I am left to conclude that the Tory party is the only vehicle left standing - as depressing as that is. I'd like an alternative, but what else is there?"