Government caught releasing dodgy statistics
More than a hundred years ago, Benjamin Disaeli said that
"There are three kinds of lies - lies, damn lies, and statistics."
And for at least that far back, official statistics have been distrusted.
The new UK statistics authority was set up earlier this year, with Sir Michael Scholar, retired top mandarin and president of St John’s College Oxford as the three day-a-week non-executive chairman.
Their job is to monitor the accuracy and fairness with which official statistics are collected, analysed and reported. He obviously takes that role more seriously than some officials in number ten or the home office expected. Sir Michael has complained publicly about the way the government released unreliable statistics designed to make it sound like policies to cut knife crime were working.
This is an extract from Sir Michael's letter to the top civil servant at Number 10:-
"Dear Jeremy,
I am writing, as chair of the UK Statistics Authority, to express my concern about yesterday’s announcement of statistics related to knife crime.
It has been reported to me by the National Statistician’s Office that officials or advisers in No. 10 Downing Street caused the Home Office to issue a press release which prematurely published rovisional statistics for hospital admissions for knife or sharp instrument wounding.
This press release said that “the number of teenagers admitted to hospital for knife or sharp instrument wounding in nine…police force areas fell by 27% according to new figures published today”.
These statistics were not due for publication for some time, and had not therefore been through the regular process of checking and quality assurance. The statisticians who produced them, together with the National Statistician, tried unsuccessfully to prevent their premature, irregular and selective release.
I hope you will agree that the publication of prematurely released and unchecked statistics is corrosive of public trust in official statistics, and incompatible with the high standards which we are all seeking to establish ... "
A richly deserved slap on the wrist for the Labour government. But if this kind of vigilance from the National Statistics office is continued it may mean that governments of all colours have to pay more attention to the accuracy of the figures they release, and that might even mean that government statistics cease to be seen as another form of lying.
"There are three kinds of lies - lies, damn lies, and statistics."
And for at least that far back, official statistics have been distrusted.
The new UK statistics authority was set up earlier this year, with Sir Michael Scholar, retired top mandarin and president of St John’s College Oxford as the three day-a-week non-executive chairman.
Their job is to monitor the accuracy and fairness with which official statistics are collected, analysed and reported. He obviously takes that role more seriously than some officials in number ten or the home office expected. Sir Michael has complained publicly about the way the government released unreliable statistics designed to make it sound like policies to cut knife crime were working.
This is an extract from Sir Michael's letter to the top civil servant at Number 10:-
"Dear Jeremy,
I am writing, as chair of the UK Statistics Authority, to express my concern about yesterday’s announcement of statistics related to knife crime.
It has been reported to me by the National Statistician’s Office that officials or advisers in No. 10 Downing Street caused the Home Office to issue a press release which prematurely published rovisional statistics for hospital admissions for knife or sharp instrument wounding.
This press release said that “the number of teenagers admitted to hospital for knife or sharp instrument wounding in nine…police force areas fell by 27% according to new figures published today”.
These statistics were not due for publication for some time, and had not therefore been through the regular process of checking and quality assurance. The statisticians who produced them, together with the National Statistician, tried unsuccessfully to prevent their premature, irregular and selective release.
I hope you will agree that the publication of prematurely released and unchecked statistics is corrosive of public trust in official statistics, and incompatible with the high standards which we are all seeking to establish ... "
A richly deserved slap on the wrist for the Labour government. But if this kind of vigilance from the National Statistics office is continued it may mean that governments of all colours have to pay more attention to the accuracy of the figures they release, and that might even mean that government statistics cease to be seen as another form of lying.
Comments
At Beatbullying we believe it vital that government builds on the police’s crack down by looking to change young people’s attitudes towards knife possession and violence as this is what is going to make the real difference over time.
The mishandling of the statistics is a reason not to declare victory too soon, it is not in any way a reason to scrap the policy.