Predictions for 2010 and 2011
There is a fashion for posting predictions for the coming year just before or after New Year's Day: I'm going to vary it slightly by speculating on what might happen over the next two years. None of the things I am about to write should be taken as backing away from my view that the result of elections are uncertain until the Returning Officer announces them and nobody can afford to be complacent about any election.
My predictions for 2010 and 2011 are
1) There will be at least one General Election over these two years. If the first election does not produce a government with an overall majority, there will be a second election within eighteen months.
In every single case since World War 2 in which a British government has lost it's working majority at one election, resulting in a period of minority government or government with a small minority, the opposition party which was gaining seats in that election has made the further gains it needed for an outright win at the following election. Therefore:
2) If the coming general election does not produce a working majority for either Gordon Brown or David Cameron it is most likely that DC will win the subsequent election.
3) Therefore the person most likely to be Prime Minister on 31st December 2011 is David Cameron, and he is likely to have a Conservative working majority
4) Whoever wins the election will have to impose extremely unpleasant policies. Britain's public finances are in a terrible state, and no government, of any party, will be able to avoid doing a large number of very unpopular things.
The British public are more intelligent than many politicians realise, and many people have already worked this one out. Nevertheless the actual reality of the pain which any incoming government will be forced, because of the incompetence of the present one, to impose, will come as a nasty shock even for many of those who thought they were expecting it.
5) The Conservative party will remain united behind David Cameron. Whatever a few fantasists, most of whom are supporters of other parties, may wish to think, Cameron has been far more successful in convincing large numbers of people that he has the right approach for Britain in the 21st century than any other Conservative leader since 1997. If he is Prime Minister, the party will batten down the hatches and support him in the difficult job he will have in sorting out the financial mess. If he merely makes substantial gains the party will not have forgotten how difficult even that looked before David Cameron became party leader.
6) The result in Copeland will be very close indeed for the parliamentary seat. There will also be some very close votes in the 2011 council elections in Copeland.
7) The development of a programme of new nuclear build will continue and will retain majority public support. It may be slightly delayed if there is a period of hung parliament, which is one of the many reasons I am praying hard that David Cameron wins outright.
8) Copeland Council will undergo significant change within the next two years.
Either the "Choosing to Change" programme will generate significant reform, or public disgust with the failure for this to happen will result in a successful campaign for a vote on a directly-elected Mayor.
9) Robin Pitt's term as a councillor for Newtown Ward in Millom will expire in May 2011, and he will not be elected to represent that ward again, nor any other ward within ten miles of Millom.
10) Haven will retain the Ike Southward Memorial Trophy in both 2010 and 2011.
My predictions for 2010 and 2011 are
1) There will be at least one General Election over these two years. If the first election does not produce a government with an overall majority, there will be a second election within eighteen months.
In every single case since World War 2 in which a British government has lost it's working majority at one election, resulting in a period of minority government or government with a small minority, the opposition party which was gaining seats in that election has made the further gains it needed for an outright win at the following election. Therefore:
2) If the coming general election does not produce a working majority for either Gordon Brown or David Cameron it is most likely that DC will win the subsequent election.
3) Therefore the person most likely to be Prime Minister on 31st December 2011 is David Cameron, and he is likely to have a Conservative working majority
4) Whoever wins the election will have to impose extremely unpleasant policies. Britain's public finances are in a terrible state, and no government, of any party, will be able to avoid doing a large number of very unpopular things.
The British public are more intelligent than many politicians realise, and many people have already worked this one out. Nevertheless the actual reality of the pain which any incoming government will be forced, because of the incompetence of the present one, to impose, will come as a nasty shock even for many of those who thought they were expecting it.
5) The Conservative party will remain united behind David Cameron. Whatever a few fantasists, most of whom are supporters of other parties, may wish to think, Cameron has been far more successful in convincing large numbers of people that he has the right approach for Britain in the 21st century than any other Conservative leader since 1997. If he is Prime Minister, the party will batten down the hatches and support him in the difficult job he will have in sorting out the financial mess. If he merely makes substantial gains the party will not have forgotten how difficult even that looked before David Cameron became party leader.
6) The result in Copeland will be very close indeed for the parliamentary seat. There will also be some very close votes in the 2011 council elections in Copeland.
7) The development of a programme of new nuclear build will continue and will retain majority public support. It may be slightly delayed if there is a period of hung parliament, which is one of the many reasons I am praying hard that David Cameron wins outright.
8) Copeland Council will undergo significant change within the next two years.
Either the "Choosing to Change" programme will generate significant reform, or public disgust with the failure for this to happen will result in a successful campaign for a vote on a directly-elected Mayor.
9) Robin Pitt's term as a councillor for Newtown Ward in Millom will expire in May 2011, and he will not be elected to represent that ward again, nor any other ward within ten miles of Millom.
10) Haven will retain the Ike Southward Memorial Trophy in both 2010 and 2011.
Comments