Conservative leadership second ballot results


 














The Conservative leadership race is not yet in the bag for any candidate and it is worth remembering that in Tory leadership races the favourite nearly always loses. The most surprising thing is if the candidate expected to win at the beginning, does. 

The next round of voting is on Monday after the TV debates. It is still possible that Tom Tugendhat or Kemi Badenoch (who has already done much better than pundits had expected) could play a blinder in the debate, or one of the frontrunners could stumble. Such things have happened before.

Nothing should be taken for granted, but unless there is a game-changer in the debates it is likely that  Tom Tugendhat will go out in the next round and at that point Rishi Sunak is likely to pick up enough of the current Tugendhat supporters to have enough MP votes to guarantee that he will be one of the final two candidates put to the party membership in the final ballot.

Again, nothing should be taken for granted but the final ballot of MPs is likely to see a contest between Liz Truss and Penny Mordaunt for the other place in the vote of party members.


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