All to play for - but watch the marginals
Considering that
* there are nearly two years to go to the next General Election,
* the government has had to carry out a lot of very painful measures to try to correct the dreadful debt mountain and deficit inherited from Labour in 2010, and
* after five years of pain (starting well before the present government was elected) the economy is starting to turn round
Labour's lead in the opinion polls looks narrow and extremely fragile.
However, Lord Ashcroft's polling of marginal seats which you can find here suggests that the risk of a Miliband win in the next General Election - which would be an absolute disaster for Britain - is much greater than the headline Labour lead in the polls suggests.
Although Labour's overall percentage point leads in recent polls have been in low single figures, Lord Ashcroft's polling shows that in the 32 Conserative/Labour marginals within the most vulnerable 40 Conservative-held constituencies, in which we had an average lead of 3% at the 2010 general election Labour now has a lead of 14%. The most recent increase has not been due to an improvement in Labour's share of the vote: it is due to former Tory voters who are considering a vote for UKIP.
The original improvement in Labour's position in marginal seats was due to former Lib/Dems voters switching to Labour, a factor which seems to have been particularly pronounced in Con/Lab marginals.
VOTE UKIP - GET MILIBAND
As Michael Ashcroft points out, there is a danger that Conservative defectors to UKIP might put Ed Miliband and Ed Balls into Downing Street as Prime Minister and Chancellor. The Mail on Sunday picks up the same point in the second item on their leader page today, which you can read here.
However, wise Conservatives should take these poll results not as a counsel of despair but as a warning against complacency, which is certainly how Ashcoft himself sees it.
It indicates we have to listen harder than ever to ordinary voters and try to address their concerns.
That doesn't mean trying to copy UKIP's policies - this would lose as many votes to the Lib/Dems and Labour as we gained back from UKIP.
It does mean we must keep working to turn round Britain's economy, continue to create more jobs, cut red tape, get the balance right on welfare, bring immigration under control, cut crime, reduce the deficit - and make sure the voters are aware of what we are doing to make progress in all those areas.
It also indicates that we have to run a very focussed, disciplined campaign and not take anything, or any voter, for granted.
As Michael Ashcroft concluded his report,
"Labour struggled to establish their economic credentials, and now there is mounting evidence that things are looking up.
Miliband shows no sign of closing the leadership ratings gap with the incumbent, a factor that will come to matter more in the months before polling day.
For the Conservatives, the challenge of remaining in government, let alone winning an overall majority, is formidable. But I think the contest will be close and enthralling."
I agree entirely. The next election could be very close indeed and there is everything to play for.
* there are nearly two years to go to the next General Election,
* the government has had to carry out a lot of very painful measures to try to correct the dreadful debt mountain and deficit inherited from Labour in 2010, and
* after five years of pain (starting well before the present government was elected) the economy is starting to turn round
Labour's lead in the opinion polls looks narrow and extremely fragile.
However, Lord Ashcroft's polling of marginal seats which you can find here suggests that the risk of a Miliband win in the next General Election - which would be an absolute disaster for Britain - is much greater than the headline Labour lead in the polls suggests.
Although Labour's overall percentage point leads in recent polls have been in low single figures, Lord Ashcroft's polling shows that in the 32 Conserative/Labour marginals within the most vulnerable 40 Conservative-held constituencies, in which we had an average lead of 3% at the 2010 general election Labour now has a lead of 14%. The most recent increase has not been due to an improvement in Labour's share of the vote: it is due to former Tory voters who are considering a vote for UKIP.
The original improvement in Labour's position in marginal seats was due to former Lib/Dems voters switching to Labour, a factor which seems to have been particularly pronounced in Con/Lab marginals.
VOTE UKIP - GET MILIBAND
As Michael Ashcroft points out, there is a danger that Conservative defectors to UKIP might put Ed Miliband and Ed Balls into Downing Street as Prime Minister and Chancellor. The Mail on Sunday picks up the same point in the second item on their leader page today, which you can read here.
However, wise Conservatives should take these poll results not as a counsel of despair but as a warning against complacency, which is certainly how Ashcoft himself sees it.
It indicates we have to listen harder than ever to ordinary voters and try to address their concerns.
That doesn't mean trying to copy UKIP's policies - this would lose as many votes to the Lib/Dems and Labour as we gained back from UKIP.
It does mean we must keep working to turn round Britain's economy, continue to create more jobs, cut red tape, get the balance right on welfare, bring immigration under control, cut crime, reduce the deficit - and make sure the voters are aware of what we are doing to make progress in all those areas.
It also indicates that we have to run a very focussed, disciplined campaign and not take anything, or any voter, for granted.
As Michael Ashcroft concluded his report,
"Labour struggled to establish their economic credentials, and now there is mounting evidence that things are looking up.
Miliband shows no sign of closing the leadership ratings gap with the incumbent, a factor that will come to matter more in the months before polling day.
For the Conservatives, the challenge of remaining in government, let alone winning an overall majority, is formidable. But I think the contest will be close and enthralling."
I agree entirely. The next election could be very close indeed and there is everything to play for.
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