Latest YOUGOV poll has Conservatives and Labour neck and neck

It would be a huge mistake for Conservatives to start getting complacent about the next election - the latest Ashcroft marginal seats polling suggests that a combination of Tory vote share losses to UKIP, and Lib/Dem losses to Labour, in the most critical battleground constituencies means that Labour is currently in a better position in those key marginals than their national average vote share suggests.

Nevertheless Labour can't be complacent either, and they will not be delighted to learn as they head for their party conference that the YOUGOV poll released today in the Sun newspaper is the second major poll in a month to put Labour and the Conservatives neck and neck.

The figures are:

Conservative    36%
Labour              36%
UKIP                 12%
Lib/Dem            10%


This  is within the margin of error of recent YOUGOV polls which had a small Labour lead (though of course errors can go in either direction.) However the 14% lead Labour enjoyed a year ago has clearly gone.

This poll also has the Conservatives 2% ahead among voters aged 18-24 and level pegging with female voters. 

What this shows is that NO party has the next election in the bag - there is EVERYTHING to play for. A Conservative outright win, a Labour outright win, or a hung parliament are all real possibilities.

All the more need for all parties to listen to voters and try to address their most pressing concerns, especially on issues like the cost of living, jobs, taxes, immigration and health,

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