So who shot themselves in the foot over Brexit? Guido's view
A year ago, Theresa May's Brexit proposals were repeatedly voted down by the votes of people who watned diametrically opposed things.
On the one side it was being opposed by those who wanted a harder Brexit, possibly even what they called "WTO Brexit" and most people call a No Deal one, and on the other side by people who wanted a softer Brexit or no Brexit at all.
I commented that both groups were playing with fire and they could not both get what they wanted: somebody was shooting themselves in the foot.
On the one side it was being opposed by those who wanted a harder Brexit, possibly even what they called "WTO Brexit" and most people call a No Deal one, and on the other side by people who wanted a softer Brexit or no Brexit at all.
I commented that both groups were playing with fire and they could not both get what they wanted: somebody was shooting themselves in the foot.
I don't think anyone knew for certain at the time which side was setting up the exact opposite of what they wanted - the one thing we could be certain of was that both sides were taking an enormous risk.
Of course, now we know that the people who dug their own graves were the soft-Brexiteers and hardline Remainers who voted against Theresa May and in the process gave the country a harder Brexit than they could have secured.
That doesn't mean that the people on the other side who opposed the WA were not taking an equally enormous risk - it looked at one stage as though the effect of the votes of these "Brexiteers against Brexit" might have kept Britain in the EU.
Guido Fawkes has a nomination for the group of MPs who did most to deliver the exact opposite of what they wanted here ...
Comments
We will get exactly the same pattern over the trade agreement that we did over the withdrawal agreement - lots of negotiation posturing from both sides, lots of threats to walk away, lots of attempts on both sides to make out that the other doesn't know what they are doing, all of which is part of the game.
I predict that we will get a trade deal at the last minute, probably in the early hours of the morning of the last possible day to agree one, which will be
* nothing like as bad as the most doom-mongering hard remainer scaremongering, and
* nothing like as good as the most panglossian Brexiteer optimism.
The only deal Johnson appears capable of agreeing is an "Australia style" deal. And we both know what that is code for.
With regard to what is to come from the present negotiations, I don't believe that the two sides will fail to agree some sort of trade deal and get it in place when the transition period comes to an end.
We may get what Stephen Bush of the New Statesman described as a "Granite hard" Brexit deal but neither side wants a "No deal" outcome any more than either wanted Britain to crash out without a withdrawal agreement.
Now that Boris has a secure majority there is no risk of a repetition of the problem which delayed British exit, of the UK government agreeing a deal and being unable to get it through. If there is a problem, it will be on the EU side.
The European Union always plays hardball in negotiations, and demonstrated over the past three years that it was able to agree and stick to a much tougher line than the more optimistic Brexiteers expected. They're not going to be a pushover this year either.
However, those who thought the EU were invincible negotiators and would never budge an inch turned out to be wrong to - and the EU is in a weaker position this year than they were last year. There is no longer any doubt about Britain's departure - we've gone, it's just about the final terms. And as the difficulties over the EU summit which took place the other day show, the EU is not in a good place.
They need a deal nearly as much as Britain does. And since both sides need and want a deal, my bet is that there will be one and talk of, quote, "the coming no deal Bresit" is mistaken.