IMF upgrades UK growth forecasts

My academic degrees are in economics and I have spent the majority of my career using the skills I acquired at university in planning and forecasting roles.

I thought last year's IMF forecast for the UK economy was unduly pessimistic and risked talking the economy down - there is a real danger in economics that if an unnecessarily pessimistic forecast is widely believed it can be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

I welcome the fact that the IMF has now upgraded their forecast which partly reflects a recognition that Britain's economy has performed better than they expected and partly reflects an improvement in the economic outlook for the UK.

Yesterday the IMF confirmed Britain's economy is on the right track, upgrading our growth forecast and substantially reducing our inflation forecast, as we deliver on the Prime Minister’s priorities of halving inflation, growing the economy, and reducing debt.

  • Since the IMF’s last assessment of the UK economy in 2022, our world and our economy has continued to be challenged in a fundamental way by Putin’s illegal war in Ukraine, and the whole world is feeling the knock-on effects. It has not been easy. But in fact British firms and businesses have weathered the storm better than the IMF predicted.
  • That is why we should welcome the IMF report upgrading our forecast – our economy is set to grow this year, after a 0.7 per cent upgrade compared with last month’s forecast and inflation is set to fall to around 5 per cent by the end of the year. If we stick to our plan, the IMF confirm our long-term growth prospects are stronger than Germany, France or Italy’s.
  • The job is not done yet, and there is a long way to go, butwe are on the right track to deliver on the Prime Minister’s priorities to halve inflation, grow our economy, and get debt falling, as the government continues to take action to cut waiting lists and stop the boats.

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