Chris Whiteside's Blog

The latest YouGov poll has Labour first but with a margin of error lead of just two points over the Conservatives, while the Conservatives are in second with a margin of error three points lead over Reform. Don't let anyone tell you that the next election is done and dusted. There is everything to play for.

 “Is there any more ominous political prefix than 'former Liberal Democrat'?” (David Aaronovitch)

 

Today is All Saints day, tomorrow is All Souls Day and yesterday was All Hallow's Eve, usually shortened to Halloween. The shops were full of items themed for ghosts, witches, monsters and horror but by now have always been replaced in most shops with material themed for Christmas. Retailers deperately trying to keep their business afloat in the face of the damage done by Rachel Reeves and the Labour government have, amusingly, noved faster than some places of Christian worship: the place where I went to an interdenominational church service this morning still had skeletons and other Halloween decorations up! (That would have incensed some Christians once but I think most of us are a little less easily triggered these days.) I was told as a child that this time of the year was originally a great Pagan festival which was co-opted by the early Christian church. In medieval times there was an important three-day festival called "Allhallowtide" in the Christian calendar...

We will all miss the brilliant actor who played captain, later Admiral, Jean-Luc Picard, the most British Frenchman ever to appear "onscreen." And Professor Xavier. And Sejanus. And King Richard the Lion-Heart. And so many others. Iconic actor Sir Patrick Stewart, of Star Trek, X-Men, I Claudius, and so many roles from Shakespeare to the stars has died aged 86. Sir Patrick died at his home in Los Angeles on 28 October after "a brief and poignant journey" with Alzheimer's disease and Lewy Body Dementia, according to a statement shared on his social media. “ His sonorous voice and singular talent will forever be synonymous with indelible performances in every genre, ” the statement reads. In a career that spanned seven decades, Sir Patrick won multiple Emmys and Golden Globes, a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame and a knighthood from Queen Elizabeth II. He was not only a great actor, he was also a great man. Rest in Peace

 A UK bank chief executive has said of Healey's budget: "Taxing the engines of growth to reduce VAT on gherkins is end-of-Rome level of stupidity" Source:  Anthony Boutall on X: "🚨 BREAKING: A UK bank chief executive has said of Healey's budget: "Taxing the engines of growth to reduce VAT on gherkins is end-of-Rome level of stupidity" https://t.co/QiFmZnYHGj" / X

 

 

"The Prime Minister came in promising to reverse 40 years of neoliberalism. Instead, we got 4p off gherkins." Rt Hon Kemi Badenoch , Conservative leader

A point to remember on UK budget day. Milton Friedman was talking about the US Federal budget, but what he said was relevant to the budget of every government of every country, including Britain.

To call Trump's actions on Ukraine "betrayal" is strong language but I think it is justified. Not because he is trying to seek a diplomatic solution to a terrible war but because he is putting maximum diplomatic pressure on Ukraine and little on Russia when the leader of every state which is a permanent member of he UN Security council has a moral obligation to put maximum pressure on Russia and help Ukraine get peace with security. When the Soviet empire broke up, the world's third largest nuclear arsenal was on Ukrainian territory. All the members of the UN Security council were deeply concerned about this. All put pressure on the four successor states which inherited Soviet nuclear weapons to ensure they were destroyed or handed to Russia in exchange for security guarantees. The security assurances given by China and France were not as strong as those signed by Russia, the USA and Britain in the "Budapest Memorandum" but all gave them. Bill Browder is one...

"Some people say that taxes are the price we pay for civilization. But the runaway taxes of our time are the price we pay for being gullible." Thomas Sowell

Gordon Holmes passed away over the weekend, aged 92. Gordon was involved with Selby Conservative Association and the Conservative Party for many years. During this time he served as Association President, and held various Officer roles within the Association, and was a fantastic fundraiser and campaigner along with his wife Sheila. Gordon gave a lifetime of service to his local community. He was a member of Burn Parish Council from its formation in 1967 to 2011, serving as its Chairman for the last 15 years. He was also elected to Selby District Council for 22 years until 1995, and was later made an Honorary Alderman in recognition of that service. Our thoughts and condolences go to Gordon’s family and friends at this sad time. Rest in Peace.

The problem with Liz Truss wasn't her analysis of Britain's problems at the time she became PM. It was her " Damn the torpedoes, full ahead ," strategy, or in her own words, a " move fast and break things " approach to solving them. In one sense it was to her credit that as PM she did exactly what she promised she would do when standing for the position: however, Rishi Sunak predicted exactly how this would go horribly wrong. I voted for Rishi because I thought he was right. And the 41 days of the Truss premiership proved that he was. Liz has now brought out a book called "Bank Job." Simon Heffer has read it so you don't have to. Bank Job by Liz Truss: zero-star review I don't always agree with Simon Heffer, and his skill at making a page drip with the venom of biting scorn sometimes makes me feel sympathy for his victims. There is an element of that this time, but sadly I cannot find a single sentence in his zero-stars review in The Telegr...

A new Ipsos poll is out. Very good news for Labour supporters, mixed news for the Conservatives, very bad news for Reform and the Greens:  Headline voting intention from Ipsos   📊Labour on 32% with a lead of 8 percentage points – the largest Labour lead Ipsos have recorded this parliament  📊Conservatives take second place for the first time with Ipsos since June 2025 (although the clear majority of polls since this years' party conference season have, like this one, shown Labour first, Kemi Badenoch's Conservatives second, and Reform UK third)  📊Reform UK down 3 points and Greens down 5  What is really good about the way the graphic below presents this - and I think it would be very helpful for those interested in presenting the polls honestly if all polling companies did this - is that they have included a bracket showing the MoE (Margin of Error) range. It is becoming increasingly clear that the most effective way to stop Labour winning again is to bac...

 

Remember that British Summer Time in the UK comes to an end tonight and the country goes back to Greenwich Mean Time. Tonight in the UK and indeed in most of Europe, the clocks go back an hour. So in the UK at 3am, it jumps back to a second 2am. By popular demand I am republishing this a handy guide to putting your clocks back tonight:

A whole crop of recent polls has Labour ahead, with Kemi Badenoch's Conservatives not far behind and ahead of Reform UK. Polls are not elections, and they are only a guide to how people are thinking. But when a whole group of polls show the same thing it's probably not too far from the truth. Here are the latest YouGov and Findoutnow polls: In forced head-to-head choices between the rival party leaders, Kemi Badenoch beats every rival except Burnham. Farage loses to every rival except Polanski. The public is also becoming less inclined to see Reform UK and the Greens as "Main parties" Put all this together and it is becoming much easier for Conservatives to make the case that, if you want to stop Labour the most effective way to do so is to vote for Kemi Badenoch's Conservatives.

 

Very good set of council by-election results for Kemi Badenoch's Conservatives in yesterday's five local contests at District/Borough level or above. Conservative councillor were elected in all four of the by-elections in England, gaining one seat each from Labour, the Greens and Independent, and holding the seat we were defending. (The one seat we didn't win was a Plaid gain from Labour.) Congratulations to all our new councillors.   Reform UK also threw the kitchen sink at a Town Council by-election in Billericay, Essex, a straight fight with the Conservatives,  which they said was close. It wasn't.

Both Conservative and Labour governments have struggled with finding an effective way forward to reform the Leasehold system. The Conservatives did eventually manage to pass the Leasehold and Freehold Reform Act 2024, which in England and Wales changed residential property rules to make extending leases, buying freeholds, and managing buildings cheaper and fairer for homeowners. Labour in opposition voted for the bill, said it did not go far enough, and promised that they would scrap Leasehold entirely. Two years later, what have they achieved: according to Guido Fawkes, they not only have failed to do this while continuing to promise it: a government consultation which closed on Wednesday suggested they might actually row back from the Conservatives 2024 act, the same one they said at the time did not go far enough. Labour appears to be breaking a promise to cut costs for leaseholders. Here is a link to the Guido Fawkes article: Labour Quietly Ditches Pledge to Cut Leasehold Costs – G...