Peter Kellner on what a good or bad result for each party would look like next week.
Top pollster Peter Kellner has published an article in "Prospect" magazine in which he makes a very brave attempt to suggest what a good or bad result in the local elections in England would look like for each of the five main political parties. I am using the word "brave" not as "Yes Minister" code for " stark staring mad " but because this is such a difficult thing to do under any circumstances, and particularly now at this very unusual political time. I must admit that my first reaction to some of these was "Do you really think that?" As he himself explains in the article: " More than 5,000 seats will be contested, covering London (1,817), most big cities (1,419), including Birmingham and Newcastle, and some counties (430), districts (781), unitary authorities (405) and new authorities (162). The chart below suggests some yardsticks for judging each party. It looks perverse: if Labour loses 800 seats it will feel triumphant; if...