On polls

Arrived back from Carlisle to find that the latest poll in the Guardian puts the Conservatives in the lead for both the European and next year's General elections.

Won't pretend I'm not pleased by that but won't be cracking open the champagne just yet.

The wise person involved in politics pays some attention to polls but does not either panic at bad polls - like the Survation one at the weekend - or get too ecstatic, let alone complacent, at good ones.

I believe that the coalition has done some good work in undoing part of the fiscal mess New Labour left behind in 2010 and rolling back a few aspects of the police state New Labour was putting in place. But of course we have not got everything right - no government ever does - and there is a great deal more to do.

Comments

Jim said…
Polls can differ so much from one poll to the next that they are not always a good indicator.

I think turnout will actually call both of these elections, and I would say the GE will have a higher turnout than the EU election, but both will be low.

the 2 elections will be different anyway (obviously) as one is PR the other is FPTP, also do people actually know for what they are voting when it comes to the EU parliament elections, ask around a few cumbrians now and ask them to tell you who are their current MEP's (and what they do) will be surprised i must say if more than 15% or so can answer.

Generally people seem to know who their MP is (though not all) some will give the answer, others will say simply "labour" but becomming more and more common is the answer "I dont know, and I dont care"

Do people vote in the EU elections to "teach the parties at home a lesson" do they even know for what they are voting? do they know how the EU pariament is made, what is its roll in conjuntion with the council and the commission? Do they know the difference?

Its actually quite amazing the number of people who have not the faintest idea of how the EU actually works. others refer to it as "the single market" meaning they dont know the difference between EFTA and the EU.

Ask a few cumbrians this simple question "Who is Catherine Ashton?" see how many can answer.

Its a point that the EU is so almightily complicated and so boring, not many people have the patience to work out how it works etc. I dont think this is a mistake either, i think its done on purpose, "the Monnet method" if you will, little by little, inch by (sorry mm by mm) under the cover of darkness.

a little like the UK tax system, just try and work out exactly how much you paid to the UK government in tax last month, its pretty much impossible to do, sure you can take off income tax and nat ins pretty quickly, if you keep receipts you can work out fuel duty too, but then try and work out your VAT bill (what did you pay VAT on and what did you not, what was the rate?, how much you paid in other duties and charges (like local parking) etc. Its almost impossible to figure out one month tax. Its done this way as if the people ever did realise how much money the government take from them there would be a riot.

The EU works much the same way, stealth is the key, until its too late.

Sorry I am wittering on
good look with your campaign

Jim
5:19 pm
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