Professor Lawrence Freedman on the prospects for a Ukrainian victory

Lawrence Freedman is Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King's College London. He has written a number of interesting articles about the war in Ukraine.

He has published a post today called "Can Ukraine win?" which provides a very convincing assessment of the current strategic position of Ukraine and Russia.

He argues that in the current stage of the war the Russians have not been able to rely so much on manoeuvre because of losses in armoured vehicles. They have sought to make up for their losses with vehicles from the reserves, including, as widely reported, vintage tanks that were in use in the 1960s. New tank production may have ground to a halt because of the lack of key components, such as microchips, which have been sourced from the West and are now sanctioned.

Russia also seems to be running low on stocks of precision weapons, evident in some of their recent long-range strikes. It is likely, for example, that they did not intend the deadly attack on the shopping mall in Krevenchuk, and instead had a nearby target in mind, which they also failed to destroy. This demonstrated, in addition to the inaccuracy of their weapons, the general Russian carelessness when it comes to collateral damage and their inability to take responsibility for their mistakes (as always suggesting that for some reason the Ukrainians did this to themselves). Coming as the G7 was meeting, it helped to boost support for Ukraine, reminding the leaders about why it is important that Russia fails."

Looking at the ways both sides are seeking to adapt and strengthen there position, he writes that

"Both sides therefore must adapt, but, admittedly oversimplifying, the Russians are adapting into becoming more of a 20th Century army while the Ukrainians are becoming more of a 21st Century army. The Ukrainian adaption process will therefore taking longer but the prospect at the end is of a much more capable force."

The full article is well worth a read and you can find it here.

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