Assessing Putin
There is an interesting assessment of President Vladimir Putin's Russia on the Commentary site here by Noah Rothman, the Associate Editor of Commentary.
The article starts with a rather alarming 2014 quote from the former US National Security Advisor and later Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, to the effect that Putin might not be playing with a full deck.
“I’m not sure he’s delusional,” former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said, "I am sure he’s not wholly rational.”
“He’s a megalomaniac,” she continued. “And you have to deal with the five percent chance that he might, in fact, be delusional.”
The article assesses that claim and the current situation of Russia in the context of a number of claims made by Putin in a speech to the annual Valdai forum in the Black Sea resort city of Sochi this week which are "troubling" because in the opinion of the article's author they bear so little resemblance to reality as to be "virtually hallucinatory."
It argues that Russia is a declining power whose ability to project power abroad is less than it wants the rest of the world to think, and concludes:
"None of this is to suggest that Russia is not dangerous.
Just the opposite.
A declining power is far more threatening than a rising power because it understands that time is not on its side.
Russia may be willing to take more risks like those it has taken in Syria, Ukraine, and Georgia to forestall the inevitable, even if it hazards accidentally forcing the West’s hand. The risk of accidental confrontation is even greater if Vladimir Putin is truly irrational and undeterrable.
Perhaps Putin’s display at Valdai was merely a show of bravado designed for foreign consumption. Or it was a demonstration of strategic unpredictability or even simple wishful thinking.
Or maybe, just maybe, Condoleezza Rice was right all along."
The article starts with a rather alarming 2014 quote from the former US National Security Advisor and later Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, to the effect that Putin might not be playing with a full deck.
“I’m not sure he’s delusional,” former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said, "I am sure he’s not wholly rational.”
“He’s a megalomaniac,” she continued. “And you have to deal with the five percent chance that he might, in fact, be delusional.”
The article assesses that claim and the current situation of Russia in the context of a number of claims made by Putin in a speech to the annual Valdai forum in the Black Sea resort city of Sochi this week which are "troubling" because in the opinion of the article's author they bear so little resemblance to reality as to be "virtually hallucinatory."
It argues that Russia is a declining power whose ability to project power abroad is less than it wants the rest of the world to think, and concludes:
"None of this is to suggest that Russia is not dangerous.
Just the opposite.
A declining power is far more threatening than a rising power because it understands that time is not on its side.
Russia may be willing to take more risks like those it has taken in Syria, Ukraine, and Georgia to forestall the inevitable, even if it hazards accidentally forcing the West’s hand. The risk of accidental confrontation is even greater if Vladimir Putin is truly irrational and undeterrable.
Perhaps Putin’s display at Valdai was merely a show of bravado designed for foreign consumption. Or it was a demonstration of strategic unpredictability or even simple wishful thinking.
Or maybe, just maybe, Condoleezza Rice was right all along."
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