Hamish MacRea on Britain's long-term relationship with Europe
Veteran economic journalist Hamish MacRae has an excellent piece in the Indy about Britain's long term relationships with the remaining EU and other countries of Europe, provocatively titled
"By 2030 our relationship with Europe will be repaired - it will be as though Brexit never happened."
Taking the long view, MacRae argues that "it is impossible to see the detail, but not so difficult to pick out big themes."
He concludes that
"Once the argy-bargy with Europe subsides, the pressure will be on politicians to find ways of cooperating better, not to grandstand to their respective domestic audiences. Remember too that between now and 2030 there will have been at least one major global recession. We don’t know the timing and we don’t know the magnitude but we can be pretty darned sure it will happen. That will put pressure on governments to mitigate the impact of recession and unless they are totally nuts they won’t try having a trade war."
"The next recession will be very difficult for everyone, but the fact that the UK has control of its currency will enable it to pull through better than most."
"The question has always been whether it is better to be just in Europe, technically a member of the EU, but not taking part in its big projects such as the euro. Or whether it is better to be just out, not a member but cooperating closely and warmly on areas of mutual interest, especially trade. The first is much easier in the short-term because it is less disruptive, but maybe leads to more unpleasantness in the long run. The second, which we have of course chosen, is much harder in the short term, but maybe a cleaner and more honest way to work together in the long."
"Actually, come 2030 I don’t think our relationship with Europe will turn out to be very so different from what it would have been had we voted to remain."
"By 2030 our relationship with Europe will be repaired - it will be as though Brexit never happened."
Taking the long view, MacRae argues that "it is impossible to see the detail, but not so difficult to pick out big themes."
He concludes that
"Once the argy-bargy with Europe subsides, the pressure will be on politicians to find ways of cooperating better, not to grandstand to their respective domestic audiences. Remember too that between now and 2030 there will have been at least one major global recession. We don’t know the timing and we don’t know the magnitude but we can be pretty darned sure it will happen. That will put pressure on governments to mitigate the impact of recession and unless they are totally nuts they won’t try having a trade war."
"The next recession will be very difficult for everyone, but the fact that the UK has control of its currency will enable it to pull through better than most."
"The question has always been whether it is better to be just in Europe, technically a member of the EU, but not taking part in its big projects such as the euro. Or whether it is better to be just out, not a member but cooperating closely and warmly on areas of mutual interest, especially trade. The first is much easier in the short-term because it is less disruptive, but maybe leads to more unpleasantness in the long run. The second, which we have of course chosen, is much harder in the short term, but maybe a cleaner and more honest way to work together in the long."
"Actually, come 2030 I don’t think our relationship with Europe will turn out to be very so different from what it would have been had we voted to remain."
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