What Happened at Spring Forum

Tim Montgomerie at Con Home gave his list of ten things which happened at the Conservative Spring Forum on Saturday and Sunday. My comments (I was there on Saturday) in italics

(1) The media have decided that the Conservatives have won the next election. There has long been an expectation of Tory victory but it's become a near certainty because of recent events (particularly the Budget and misuse of expenses). Yesterday's announcement on primary school academies from Michael Gove led bulletins throughout the day. Tory policy matters because the media class has decided that it will be Government policy in a year's time.

Regardless of what the media think, we must not take anything for granted. Victory is not certain until the returning officer announces the gain that gives us an overall majority and we cannot afford to be complacent.


(2) The Tories have decided that Labour has reached the contempt phase. William Hague predicted in 1997 that New Labour would first produce fascination among voters, then disillusionment, and then contempt. It's taken longer than he perhaps hoped but yesterday the Shadow Foreign Secretary launched a no holes barred attack on the "decomposing political muckheap" that is Labour's frontbench. He described Labour as the "disgustingly grubbiest" of all administrations of the modern era. Strong stuff and it wouldn't have been issued if CCHQ wasn't confident that the public is now contemptuous of Brown.

Perhaps - but if Labour are in the gutter we must be careful not to join them there.


(3) David Cameron is oozing confidence. The Tory leader is a confident man who has a realistic expectation that he will be Prime Minister in a year's time. It was obvious from his powerfully delivered speech and also obvious from two brief chats I had with him earlier today. He is fully aware that with the expectation of a Tory victory he, his team and his manifesto are about to face unprecendented scrutiny. A media class that gave Tony Blair an easy ride will not give an easy ride to the Conservatives.

David Cameron is confidence but not complacent - and he is right not to be.


(4) The media are attempting to set up a Boris V Cameron split. Saturday's Times suggested that Boris "despises" Cameron. Interviewed by ConHome yesterday the Mayor of London dismissed the story as "tripe" and "fantastic". He also said that it was "almost certain" that being Mayor would be his last big job in politics but not one journalist in Cheltenham believes that Boris has given up his ambition to follow David Cameron into Downing Street. The Boris story is going to run and run.

The media do seem to be doing this - it is nonsense but that won't stop them.


(5) David Cameron and George Osborne say they want a mandate for specific spending cuts. David Cameron said that ministers will be promoted according to their success at using new technology and decentralisation to deliver more on smaller budgets. And, nearer the time of the election, they will spell out the specific nature of planned spending cuts.

Whoever wins the next election will have to make the cuts which Brown and Darline are frantically trying to defer until after that election. We have a difficult balance to strike between the need, on the one hand, to be honest with the voters and avoid presenting the Labour smear machine with ammunition they can use to "prove" the lie that a Conservative government will slash and burn public services and end civilisation as we know it.


(6) The next Conservative government will probably raise taxes. That has to be the conclusion from David Cameron's address to Spring Forum. He said (my emphasis): "Fifteen years ago, I was in the Treasury as we had to deal with public finances that had got out of control; debt that had got too high. We had to put up taxes, and I hated it. But it was the right thing to do and that lesson has stayed with me."

Whoever wins the next election will have to raise taxes, cut spending, or both.


(7) Philip Hammond is a rising star. His steady rise in the ConHome league table captures the increasingly high regard that grassroots members have for the Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury. A safe, intelligent and hardworking frontbencher, George Osborne said that Mr Hammond would be "one of the most powerful members of the government."




(8) Spring Forum needs to be better organised. The Saturday agenda was very thin - rescued by strong speeches from Boris Johnson to all representatives and from William Hague to candidates. Two half hour sessions from Andrew Lansley and Michael Gove were closed to the media and put in such a small room that many conference attendees couldn't even get in. The party needs to decide whether it wants a two day conference or a one day rally. Spring Forum fell between the two possibilities this weekend.

Agreed.

(9) Jeremy Middleton will be a great representative of the grassroots.

Jeremy is the new National Convention chairman - and as such the elected representatives of ordinary party members.

I (Tim Montgomerie) backed him and am therefore biased but the grassroots have a new Chairman of the National Convention who believes in members' democratic rights and is a believer in the internet's transformational power. Commiserations to the other candidates for the job and the party owes the now retired Don Porter enormous thanks for all his years of service to the Conservative Party.


(10) The new generation of Conservative candidates is impressive. I hesitate to name too many names but the more I see our candidates the more I'm hopeful about the next Conservative government. Andrea Leadsom, Harriett Baldwin, Charlie Elphicke and so many others I caught up with in Cheltenham are going to make us proud.

This time I'm obviously biased but I have a high opinion of many of my fellow candidates.

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