Chris Whiteside's Blog

The YouGov poll finding the Conservatives ahead of Reform is now matched by a More in Common poll.  More in Common say: "The Conservatives seem to be enjoying a conference bounce as they jump to second in our voting intention, while Labour lead by 4. 🌹 LAB 28% (-1) 🌳 CON 24% (+3) ⏩ REF 21% (-3) 🔶 LIB DEM 11% (+1) 🟢 GREEN 7% (-) ⚫ RES: 5% (+1) N = 2,101 | Fieldwork 9-12/10 | Changes w 5/10

The PM has appeared the float the idea that a commitment in the next Labour manifest to re-join the EU might provide sufficient mandate to do so, despite the referendum to leave being the largest vote in British history. The public do not seem to agree.

Pollster YouGov say: "Our latest Westminster voting intention poll (11-12 October 2026) shows a close race between the largest parties: Labour: 24% (-3 from 4-5 Oct) Conservatives: 23% (+3) Reform UK: 21% (-1) Lib Dems: 12% (+1) Greens: 11% (=) SNP: 3% (=) Restore Britain: 2% (-1) Plaid Cymru: 1% (=) Obviously the difference between the three main parties is margin-of-error. Nevertheless it is significant that this is the best result for the Conservatives since the YouGov tracker re-started in January 2025 and joint worst for Reform UK. 

"We never communicate what we will do next in our operations. Last night, we did not attack any energy facilities on the territory of Russia because President Trump said that there would be an energy ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. We did not attack, while Russia attacked our gas stations, energy infrastructure, and other facilities.  I think it was Putin’s answer to President Trump. And the message from Russia was very clear – they don't know anything about the energy ceasefire. It's a pity, because they always find reasons not to stop this war. Which is why I think we need more pressure on Russia."  Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky   From an interview with Fox News. 

  A stronger economy. Lower taxes. Secure borders. A country that rewards work, backs families and defends itself. That is the Britain that the next Conservative government will build.

 

There are not many left-wingers whose views I find interesting enough to quote. Nick Cohen is one of the exceptions. Here is an extract from his take on the comprehensive defeat of the Green party yesterday in Sir Keir Starmer's old seat, which not long ago Zack Polanski could reasonably have been expected to win. "Zack Polanski has destroyed the old Green Party Will the new version be darker? Labour has just comprehensively defeated the Greens in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The victory was a tribute to Andy Burnham and to the optimism he’s brought to the Labour Party, and to an excellent local candidate, who came to the UK as a refugee from Somalia, fought off the most disgusting racist abuse during the campaign, and is now a Member of Parliament. However, that’s not the whole story, as you probably already know. The election was also a catastrophic defeat for Zack Polanski, the leader of the Green Party, who you might have expected a few months ago to have taken ...

 YouGov finds strong support for Kemi Badenoch's proposals on Inheritance tax:

 

 

For a good indication of how utterly desperate Richard "Pants on Fire" Tice and the liars of Reform UK are, check out the link in the Community Note note on the post linked to  HERE . He's not only a mendacious rascal, he doesn't even have the originality of mind to make up his own original smears. He's repeating a "Labour Press" smear which had already been debunked. 

 

 "In most wars in history, you can make the case that it may or may not have been necessary. The Second World War is the absolutely classic case of good against evil." "Tucker Carlson, like many people who get on social media, find that to get clicks, they need to become more and more controversial, and they end up saying things that no sensible person could possibly believe." Rt Hon Jacob Rees-Mogg. I will confess to doing a complete fanboy on JRM this evening. Seeing him come up the stairs at the ICC in Birmingham, I went over, offered my hand, and said that I thought his demolition of Tucker Carlson had been brilliant. With his usual exquisite courtesy he shook the proffered hand and told me I was too kind.

"I have children who are half black, half white. They’re mixed race. I don’t want to hear rhetoric that makes them feel that they’re not a part of this country.” (Rt Hon Kemi Badenoch , Conservative leader)

 

 As the Green party of England and Wales adopted today the highly problematic policy that "Zionism is racism" here is a handy reference guide to all the British political parties who have had that policy:

 I think the best way to begin this diary of the 2026 Conservative conference in Birmingham is with this YouTube clip of Kemi's opening speech.

“I mean, you can't hate London and then hope to be the mayor of London.” James Cleverly (referring to the Reform UK candidate for that position, Laila Cunningham

This quote from another great Conservative woman seems particularly appropriate in a week when Reform UK have stepped up their highly personal and at times extremely dishonest attacks on the present Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch. Maggie was right. These guys have no political arguments, and that's why they are making it personal.  

Thomas Cochrane was a British naval officer who had a brilliant career fighting the French during the Napoleonic wars, then became an admiral in the navies of various Latin American independence movements and had an equally successful record fighting for them. His exploits helped to inspire a number of great works of naval fiction, possibly including some of the events of C.S. Forester's "Hornblower" books and certainly some of the events in Patrick O'Brien's "Master and Commander" series.  As I write this post, a reproduction of Montagu Dawson's painting " The smoke of battle - the gallant Speedy " hangs on the wall of the room, depicting the capture in 1801 by HMS Speedy under Cochrane's command of the Spanish frigate El Gamo . The battle shown in the painting was an extraordinary victory by Lord Cochrane. The disparity between the two vessels was staggering: • HMS Speedy : A small 14-gun brig with a severely depleted crew of just 54...

"The last person to trust with power is someone who is dying to have it. The best person to wield power is someone who is reluctant to do so, but who will do it for a while as a civic duty. That is why term limits should make it impossible to have a whole career in politics." — Thomas Sowell

 "In short, honesty is more than a moral principle. It is also a major economic factor." — Thomas Sowell ( Basic Economics )

I have for years supported fair and realistic reform of the UK state pension triple lock to make it sustainable. I have consistently opposed scrapping it, which is throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Andy Burnham wants to scrap the triple lock, replacing it with a system with no effective earnings link. Britain tried a system before with no earnings link. The results were disastrous. It meant that the state pension fell behind, contributing massively to pensioner poverty. If Burnham wins the next election and implements the plans he announced today, the same will happen again. The Conservatives are running a petition against Burnham's plans to scrap the triple lock. I had no hesitation in signing it and urge others to do the same. You can  sign the petition at: Sign the Petition - Protect Pensioners

Comment on X about Andy Burnham's plans to scrap the Triple Lock in its' present form: "The WASPI women are going to be apoplectic when they hear about this in 20 years time." (Joseph Gellman) Joseph Gellman on X: "The WASPI women are going to be apoplectic when they hear about this in 20 years time" / X

I have been arguing for five years that the state pension "triple lock" should be reformed to make it sustainable in the long term, but should not be abolished. Today at the Labour party conference Prime Minister Andy Burnham proved that he doesn't "get it" by proposing to scrap the Triple lock in 2030 and drop entirely the link to average annual earnings, effectively replacing the triple lock with a double lock tied to inflation or 2.5%, whichever is higher. THIS IS AN ENTIRELY WRONG SOLUTION TO A GENUINE PROBLEM. The triple lock was introduced by David Cameron in 2010 for the very good reason that without an earnings link the basic state pension had dropped badly behind living standards for the country as a whole, hitting particularly those pensioners who depend entirely on the state pension, who then as now included some of the most vulnerable people in the country . The original plan was to run the triple lock for a decade so those pensioners could catch up...

I love many of Vivaldi's concertos both for violin and mandolin/guitar, but this one is probably my favourite. (Although it is close between this and the concerto for four violins which Bach adapted for harpsichords).

 

Before putting in the link to Andrew Neil's article I'm going to write two paragraph which some people will find contradictory. In 2016 I voted Remain. All three of the reasons I voted Remain have been totally vindicated by events. And if I were somehow magically transported back to 2016 knowing everything I know today, I would absolutely still vote Remain. But we are not in 2016, we are in 2026. Trying to rejoin the EU how, if we were allowed in at all, would not restore us to the position we had in 2016 - in fact it would make some aspects of that damage worse. So if anyone asked me, as a 2016 Remain voter, if that means Britain should apply to rejoin the EU now, I would not just say "No," I would say, " Please for the love of God, absolutely not! " The decision to go into or out of a complex union like the EU - or for that matter, as the separatists in Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland wish to do with the UK - is absolutely not like a general election...

 Solzhenitsyn on the USSR/Russia: “We know that they are lying, they know that they are lying, they even know that we know they are lying, we also know that they know we know they are lying . . . [T]he lie has become not just moral category, but the pillar industry of this country.”

"Spending five years 'searching for work' isn't a safety net, it's a lifestyle choice. The best form of welfare is a well-paid job." "Welfare should be a safety net for those in genuine need. It is not meant to be a comfortable option for people who can work." "If you can work, you should. We must not borrow from our children to support people who refuse to work. That’s why we’ve announced a plan for a fairer welfare system: six months on Universal Credit to find work. After that, what you receive depends on what you’ve paid in." Rt Hon Kemi Badenoch MP, leader of the Conservative party, Newspaper article headline and posts on X You can read her article at: KEMI BADENOCH: Spending five years 'searching for work' isn't a safety net, it's a lifestyle choice. The best form of welfare is a well-paid job | Daily Mail Online

"Regarding plagiarism. Years ago, a student brought me her bachelor's thesis. After reading it, I realized that the second chapter was my academic article. At the next seminar, the following dialogue took place: - The work is excellent. - Thank you. - But I found one flaw in it. - What? - The second chapter is of my authorship. It's my academic article. - Oh dear ... - Truth be told, I haven't yet seen a student who plagiarized from their own supervisor. - I'm sorry, I didn't tell the person writing this work who my supervisor is. I fell off my chair." Posted today on X by Adam Wielomski (2) Adam Wielomski - polityczny sceptyk on X: "A propos plagiatów. Lata temu studentka przyniosła mi swoją pracę licencjacką. Po przeczytaniu stwierdziłem, że drugi rozdział to mój artykuł naukowy. Na kolejnym seminarium miał miejsce taki dialog: - Praca jest znakomita. - Dziękuję. - Lecz znalazłem w niej jeden mankament. -" / X

"We used to think that you could spend your way out of a recession and increase employment by cutting taxes and boosting government spending. I tell you in all candour that that option no longer exists, and in so far as it ever did exist, it only worked on each occasion since the war by injecting a bigger dose of inflation into the economy, followed by a higher level of unemployment as the next step.  Higher inflation followed by higher unemployment. We have just escaped from the highest rate of inflation this country has known; we have not yet escaped from the consequences: high unemployment. That is the history of the last twenty years." Rt Hon James Callaghan , Labour Prime Minister, Labour conference 1976. Truer words were never spoken by a Labour Prime Minister - and not many truer words were ever spoken by anybody.

"I think my algorithm has decided I don't need Ed Davey in my life because he just has not come across my screens at all" Comment by a London voter called "Hannah" to a "More in Common" focus group, quoted in a piece in "The Economist" called " The Liberal Democrats are Britain's pointless party. " After a brief period of relevance which roughly coincided with Nick Clegg's leadership, the Lib/Dems do indeed appear to have become astonishingly irrelevant and pointless for a party with 73 MPs in parliament. A little concerned however, that this is being seen as the result of a computer algorithm. One would like to think voters would have some agency in the matter. 

Three Conservative wins in by elections yesterday, a gain from the Green party on Cotswolds District Council and seats held on South Staffordshire council and on Windsor and Maidenhead council.

 

Thanks to Neil Stone for drawing my attention to one of the best posts ever put up on X:

"When truth becomes offensive, lies become comfortable."  Thomas Sowell  

This is what the UK had to say in response to the Argentine government's ridiculous posturing at the United Nations about the Falkland Islands.

 "Anyone willing to trust Putin is either an idiot or complicit in his crimes. Possibly both." Gary Kasparov on X, formerly Twitter. Garry Kasparov on X: "Anyone willing to trust Putin is either an idiot or complicit in his crimes. Possibly both." / X

"I don’t pretend debt is just the fault of the current government, but they are unquestionably making it worse. The next generation will pay the price. There’s only one way out of this crisis - a government willing to make tough choices and get Britain’s finances under control." Andrew Griffith MP Shadow Chancellor

J.S. Bach took Antonio Vivaldi's Concerto for four violins, which provided yesterday's music spot, and tranposed it for four harpsichords. Here is the Bach music as performed with two of the harpsichord parts actually played on that instrument, and the other two on pianos.

 

 

 Conservatives will always be on the side of British Business.

 

 Quote by former PM Rishi Sunak in tomorrow's Sunday Times:

Johann Sebastian Bach's Brandenburg Concerto No. 5      Allegro  Affettuoso  Allegro Performed by the New York Baroque Incorporated Harpsichord: John Scott Violin Solo: Owen Dalby Flute: Emi Ferguson Violin Tutti: Katie Hyun Viola: Bryony Gibson-Cornish Cello: Ezra Seltzer Bass: Wen Yang

Congratulations to Councillor James Poland on gaining the Wreake Valley ward in Charnwood from the Greens  Wreake Valley (Charnwood) Council By-Election Result: 🌳 CON: 48.2% (+8.0) ➡️ RFM: 31.2% (New) 🌍 GRN: 16.4% (-34.3) 🌹 LAB: 3.1% (-6.0) 🔶 LDM: 1.1% (New) Conservative GAIN from Green. Changes w/ 2023.

"Macron and Tusk are speaking and acting with an urgency that makes the latest reports about Russia violating Lithuanian airspace even more concerning. It is not clear that the Government is taking the threat from Russia seriously enough. Its own intelligence assessment says an attack on NATO could come by 2030, while repeated smaller-scale incursions are already taking place.  It comes only weeks after CIA Director John Ratcliffe made an unannounced visit to Moscow, reportedly to warn Russia against attacking a NATO member. Our European allies are responding with growing urgency, yet the Government still will not say what it intends to do on defence. The NATO Secretary General was in Britain only yesterday calling for that path to be set out, and I agree with him. The Conservatives set out two weeks ago both our route to higher defence spending at 3% of GDP and how we would pay for it. The Government should now explain what it knows about the escalations in Eastern Europe, how it...

Kemi Badenoch on the news that inflation has risen to 3%: "Inflation is rising again. Labour’s tax and spend addiction is making the problem worse. Labour has made it more expensive to hire people, run a business and produce the energy our country needs. Those costs have to go somewhere. They end up in the prices you pay at the checkout, in higher energy bills and in fewer jobs and opportunities. Conservatives would make the tough choices: cut wasteful spending, cut taxes and bring down the cost of energy. That’s how we get prices under control and build a stronger economy."

'Steerpike' writes in the Spectator: " In a cringeworthy bid to woo Muslim voters across the country, Polanski this week released a campaign video for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election in which he butchered Pakistan’s national language. Fewer than 200 people in the constituency use Urdu as their main language, but the Green leader evidently thought his linguistic gymnastics would establish him as a better voice for Muslims than the actual Muslim Labour candidate running for the seat. Today, the Mayor of London decided to put Polanski’s newfound proficiency to the test. During Mayor’s questions, the Green leader asked whether City Hall would ban new data centres and underperforming water companies. "  Mayor Khan began his answer in Urdu, presumably with the intention of giving the leader of the Green party a opportunity to demonstrate whether his command of the language extends beyond reading from a prepared text. Khan's Urdu reply translates as: " Peace ...

Dan Hodges has a very interesting piece in the Daily Mail on the likelihood of Andy Burnham calling and winning a general election in the spring - and how Kemi Badenoch may by the only person who can stop him. Hodges points out the similarities to the position just after Gordon Brown became Prime Minister in 2007, when he nearly called a snap election which he might well have won - and didn't because David Cameron and George Osborn's policy of raising the Inheritance tax threshold so that " only millionaires should pay inheritance tax " was cutting through. (By the way, when Cameron and Osborne gained office in coalition with the Liberal Democrats and in a very different fiscal climate three years later, their coalition partners would not agree to the full implementation of this promise, but they did manage to introduce a property-specific allowance that allowed qualifying married couples to reach a £1 million tax-free threshold.) The Present Prime minister, Andy Bur...

Key extract from a Spectator article by Tim Shipman. The article also explains that Miliband and Starmer were advised how damaging the policy would be to British interests and objectives, but chose to ignore that advice:

"It is better to remain silent at the risk of being thought a fool, than to talk and remove all doubt of it." (Maurice Switzer.) I had always believed that this quote, in a slightly shorter form, was from Abraham Lincoln, but this afternoon a friend mentioned it to me and attributed it to Mark Twain, so I decided to check where it actually comes from. There are attributions to both Lincoln and Twain going back a long way - Golden Book magazine attributed it to Lincoln nearly a century ago, in 1931, in the form which I remember, and in 1953 a newspaper in Canada attributed it to Mark Twain. However, neither the Yale Book of Quotations or the Quote Investigator website were able to find any attribution to the former US President or the author earlier than 1931 or 1953 respectively, and the saying was in use for several decades prior to 1931 without any attribution to either. The Bible does contain an idea very similar to the first part of the quote above, in  Proverbs 17:28. ...

I am not the world's biggest ABBA fan but they did have a few very catchy tunes which were absolute earworms, and "Lay all your love on me" is definately one of them.

 

"Nationalists hoping to kill the United Kingdom should be careful what they wish for." This was the sub-heading on a leader in The Times today. It contines, "Nationalists politicians love talking about independence because it means they don't have to deal with the hard stuff: how to balance the books, make the NHS work better or make children better at maths. The fiscal issue is especially neuralgic if you are punting the Scottish National Party of Plaid Cymru line about how everything in the garden would be rosy if only the tyrannical yoke of Westminster could be cast off. Unfortunately the figures tell a different story. Far from the Union being a brake on progress in this kingdom itis and always has been an essential facilitator of it. In 2024/25 public spending per person in the United Kingdom as a whole was £13,504. In England it was £13,134 per head - 3% below the national average. But in Wales it was £15,563 - 12 per cent more. Scotland did even better at £15,...

 Kemi Badenoch posted the following message of condolences on the death of the Prime Minister's father: " My condolences to Prime Minister Andy Burnham and all his family. No matter how old you are, or how much you try to prepare, losing your father is a profoundly painful experience. A part of your life that has always been there is suddenly gone forever and it can feel as though a part of you won’t ever be the same again. May Roy Burnham Rest In Peace. " 

 "For weeks, we were told Andy Burnham would be “pragmatic” and approve Rosebank and Jackdaw. As sure as night follows day, he delayed again. North Sea workers are back in limbo. Burnham must get serious and approve the licences now." Rt Hon Kemi Badenoch MP See her piece in the Daily Mail which you can read at: KEMI BADENOCH: Andy Burnham's bottled the chance to create jobs AND slash energy bills | Daily Mail Online

The saying " If you want peace, prepare for war " is a slightly modified version of an idea first expressed by the Roman military writer Publius Flavius Vegetius Renatus in the prologue of Book III of his Latin military treatise, Epitoma Rei Militaris (also known as De Re Militari ) which is believed to have been published between 384 AD and 389 AD,  Vegetius didn't use the exact Latin or English words given above which are the form in which we most often hear or see the quote used today.  His original text reads:" Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum. " which translates into English as “Therefore, he who desires peace, let him prepare for war.” Over time, this phrasing was shortened into the famous proverb used today: in Latin, "Si vis pacem, para bellum"   or in English "If you want peace, prepare for war." The context is that Vegetius wrote the treatise during a period when the Roman army's traditional strength and discipline ...

 

Kemi Badenoch on the big donations to Reform UK "Reform are about to learn the lesson of the law of diminishing returns. In 2020, Michael Bloomberg spent $1 billion employing 2,400 staff and saturating coverage on his Presidential campaign. It came to nothing.  Money is an accelerant, not a cure. If the fundamentals are good, it improves things. If they’re bad, things will get a whole lot worse. You can buy staff and advertising, but you can’t buy judgement or integrity. Sometimes a bigger cheque just means you make more of the same mistakes.   The Conservatives are up for the fight. We are raising millions, attracting new donors and winning back old ones because people can see what is coming. Britain does not need another protest party. It needs common sense, a serious plan and a party capable of bringing the country together. That is who we are. And it is what Reform will never be." Rt Hon Kemi Badenoch MP Leader of the Conservative party

" Baba Yetu " by Christopher Tin was the award-winning theme music for the fourth iteration of Sid Meier's computer game, "Civilisation." The lyrics are the Lord's Prayer in Swahili.

 

The House of commons has rejected an attempt to bring back the Assisted Dying bill which ran out of time in the House of Lords last year. There were passionate speeches both in favour and against the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill during a debate lasting more than four-hours in the House of Commons on Friday. The Bill was voted down by a majority of 16, after 286 MPs voted against while 270 MPs voted in favour. It will have been extremely telling that organisations representing doctors and disabled people had expressed serious concerns about the bill. Some of the MPs who voted against this time had voted in favour of the bill, at least in principle, on previous occasions, and said they were still in favour of the principle but had come to the conclusion that this particulasr bill was flawed. Laying my own cards on the table, I don't think there is a perfect answer to this question. The bill was trying to make an option of release from pain available to allow some people w...

"As Rosh Hashanah begins, I wish every Jewish family in Britain a sweet and peaceful new year. I know this past year has been hard in so many ways. Britain has become a more difficult place to be Jewish. I want you to know that I will always stand against antisemitism in all its forms. I have always admired the Jewish community’s determination to hold on to hope, even in difficult times. That optimism is at the heart of Rosh Hashanah. I share that hope, and I truly believe better days lie ahead. Shana Tova." (Rt Hon Kemi Badenoch )