Peter Kellner on the transformation of Kemi Badenoch's "PM in Waiting" ratings

Distinguished pollster Lord Kellner has published an interesting piece on the way the ratings of Britain's political leaders vary according to which pollster is asking and what question they ask and how those ratings are changing over time.

You can read the whole thing here.

But there are some key takeaways.

The first is that, although different companies asking different questions show different results, all of them show a consistent improvement, typically in the range 20 to 25 percentage points,  in Kemi's ratings in the ten months from October 2025 to this month.

At the time Sir Keir Starmer announced his resignation, Kemi Badenoch's approval ratings were well ahead of his or of those of Nigel Farage or Zack Polanski. Andy Burnham is currently enjoying a honeymoon period and is in the lead, but Kemi's ratings have held steady and she remains well ahead of Farage and Polanski.

Most interesting are the ratings for "PM in Waiting." Kellner writes:

"YouGov asks a range of tracking questions, quite separately from its weekly voting intention polls for The Times and Sky News. Its figures are automatically updated on its site, but seldom noticed. One of its questions is: Do you believe that at the moment Kemi Badenoch does or does not look like a Prime Minister in waiting?

Last October, just 12 per cent of voters said she did, while 63 per cent did not – a net score of minus 51; Last week’s figures: 26-50 per cent, net score minus 24. A clear improvement but still poor.

That, though, is not the most significant finding. The big story is the transformation of her reputation among those who voted Conservative at the last election:"



 


















Kellner adds:

"In half a century of monitoring poll findings, I cannot recall a leader’s appeal to their own party’s voters rising so dramatically. Badenoch has transformed her credibility among those who voted Tory in 2024 but were disillusioned by her performance in her first year as party leader. She has won the first round in her battle to revive her party’s fortunes and see off Farage.

All of which should cheer her party as Parliament returns from its summer break."

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