Andrew Willshire on the path to Conservative renewal and the contradictions of Reform UK
Andrew Willshire, founder of the independent strategic analytics consultancy Diametrical Ltd, has a great piece on Conservative Home about Kemi Bdenoch's path to renewing the Conservative party and the internal contradictions in the arguments of her critics, particularly those of the recent Conservative defectors to Reform UK.
You can read the whole piece at
but here are a few extracts
"Ever since the election, there has been a fashion among parts of the right-wing commentator class to tour news studios to demand that the Conservative party have some sort of “reckoning”, an “inquisition” into how and why it failed."
"More particularly, it is apparent that the reckoning that they want is primarily for the so-called “Lib Dems in the party” to be expelled. By this account, it was solely the fault of these 40 or so MPs that 14 years of Conservative government failed to result in the New Jerusalem of Danny Kruger’s fever dreams."
"This seems to me to badly underestimate the value of unity in a party that just lost two thirds of its MPs. How can it be sensible for a party that had just been reduced to 121 MPs to proceed by expelling 40 more for being insufficiently ideologically pure?"
"If those MPs had indeed joined the Lib Dems, we would be treated to the none-too-joyous sight of Ed Davey facing Keir Starmer at PMQs each week. And doubtless another 20-30 MPs would then have joined Farage on the Reform benches. Unity was, and is, essential for the Conservative party to survive at all."
"I’m sorry to break it to the Monties of the world, but there is no great appetite in the country for a period of public self-flagellation on the part of the Conservative party.
The public at large moved rapidly from thinking the Tories should be removed from office to ignoring them entirely once they had been. When they are ready to hear from them again, it will be a “What are you going to do now?” conversation, not “Can we first talk about last time?”
In his recent Spectator interview, Jenrick says of Farage that, “His political instincts and judgment are as good or better than anybody I’ve worked with in British politics.” That’s probably fair, but that’s all there is – politics, charisma and chutzpah.
Farage has held elected office for almost 27 years but has never held any responsibility for a governmental budget, not even at a council level. He has shown no interest whatsoever in policy detail and is totally untested in his ability to trade-off bad choices. His arguments shift with the wind; This is a leader who went into the 2024 election pledging to raise the Income Tax threshold to £20,000, at a cost of £80b, only to drop it after the election as “unrealistic”.
While he undoubtedly has an impressive record of creating parties and winning votes, he has never been able to hold a team of equals together. Indeed, it is obvious or that Farage has no capability to be “primus inter pares”, only “primus supra omnes.”
"The Farage personality cult aspects of the party should bother conservatives. In the Spectator, Danny Kruger actually wrote the following: “Like Emperor Henry IV before the Pope at Canossa, [Tory MPs] should stand barefoot in the snow to seek – and receive – absolution from Nigel Farage.” If you can read that without getting the urge to vomit, then you’re made of sterner stuff than me."
"For anyone interested in coherent policy as opposed to inchoate rage, Farage is not the answer. But he’s the only answer Jenrick has."
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