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Straws in the wind ...

It's fascinating to see which posts on this blog attract most traffic. Sometimes things come out of left field. For the past few days a lot of the visitors to this blog have been picking up the page I posted in July 2012 - at the time of the Olympics - about the full words to the British National Anthem. The post concerned lists the full words for the five verses of "God Save the Queen" which are still current. But what was in it that should come up now? Then I realised. It includes a "PS" about the fact that someone had hacked the Daily Telegraph page with the official words for use at Jubilee celebrations, or else someone at the paper was being naughty, because that page also gave the 18th century anti-Jacobite verse. I wonder if this is what some people were looking for. In the original 18th century context, the anti-Jacobite verse would have been understood not as an insult to all Scots, but specifically to those ultra-reactionary romantic idiots who ...

Professor Ronald MacDonald on the Economic consequences of Scottish Independence

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This video of a talk by Professor Ronald Macdonald, who holds the Adam Smith chair of Political Economy at the University of Glasgow, and was previously Professor of International Finance at the University of Strathclyde. It lasts about 18 minutes but is well worth listening to in terms of one reputable expert view with unimpeachable Scottish credentials on what the impact of tomorrow's vote on both Scotland and the rest of the UK might be. The talk is called "The numbers don't add up."

Scotland and Europe

I think we can take it for granted that those Scots who elected a UKIP Member of the European Parliament earlier this year are not bothered about the probability that Mr Salmond is being entirely too sanguine about the prospects for an Independent Scotland's membership of the EU. But those Scots who want to stay in the EU, and even more so if they want to keep things like the British rebate and opt-out from having to join the Euro, should be. He's probably right to assume that most Scots would want an Independent Scotland to be a member of the European Union if they leave the British one. Which appears an utterly inconsistent position to me - why on earth do you want Brussels telling you what to do if you're understandably fed up with London doing it - but it does appear to be what most potential "Yes" voters want. (FWIW my ideal positions on Scotland vis-a-vis the UK and Britain in respect of Europe are identical: I would like to see all four parts of the UK ...

Quote of the day 17th September 2014

"In business, in media, in government service, and in the Army, Scots still prosper as part of a United Kingdom, with opportunities and skies far wider than those that will come from a fragmented patchwork of cold, damp and powerless nation-statelets. "Where Brown, Blair and Cameron all have Scots blood and Scots names, another generation of Scots waits to take over the reins of power. While even the distant prospect of, say, Michael Gove as prime minister may not fill many Scots (myself among them) with delight, his career to date from an adopted working-class child from Aberdeen through Oxford to the top of the Cabinet is evidence of the sort of opportunities the Union affords ambitious Scots. "The sound of Scottish accents on every other BBC broadcast – whether as presenters of Today, comics and actors – as well as editors of newspapers and chairmen of banks, is another token of how far we have boarded and taken over the vessel to which we attached ourselves in 1707. ...

Rory Stewart writes about the "Beacon of Hope" event at Gretna at 8pm this evening

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There will be a "Beacon of Hope" event this evening at the "Auld Acquaintance" cairn at Gretna between 8pm and 10pm. Rory Stewart MP writes: Beacon of Hope at 8pm Tonight Our Beacon of Hope event will run from 8pm - 10pm tonight (Tuesday 16th of September). Please also watch our beautiful photo montage of all the thousands of stones which have recently been placed on the cairn, here . Here is Belfast Poet Charlotte Higgins' latest poem: http://handsacrosstheborder.co.uk/two-million-steps/ Best wishes, Rory

Quote of the day 16th September 201

"I think it's terrible if a person who wants to work cannot find a job. You have no self-respect, you haven't got the respect of your family, if somehow you cannot earn yourself a living and them a living too." (Margaret Thatcher)

Quote of the day 15th September 2014

“British Muslims condemn unreservedly the murder of our fellow Briton, David Haines. Our deepest condolences, thoughts and prayers go out to the friends and family of Mr Haines.” “David Haines went out to the region to help the people of the region. That extremists chose to murder him only shows once again the depravity of their warped ideology. They have killed so many innocent people in the region, and they perform such murders only to draw attention to their cause of destruction.” “These extremists in Iraq and Syria claim to be acting in the name of Islam. But there is nothing in our faith that condones such behaviour. Muslims in Britain and around the world have condemned these people, and the arguments they use have been refuted comprehensively as being far from the religion of Islam.” “At this terrible time, it is important that we all come together in solidarity. These extremists wish to draw attention and recruits to their cause by sowing division and fear between people ...

David Haines RIP

David Haines had once served his country in the RAF, but he did not go to Syria to fight anyone or to hurt anyone. Nor did he go to promote or oppose any religious view. For the last fifteen years he had dedicated his life to working to help and protect the victims of war. In that time he had worked with refugees in the former Yugoslavia, disabled people in Libya and ceasefire monitors in South Sudan. He went to Syria as a humanitarian, to give aid and comfort to vulnerable, innocent people who had been harmed by the fighting, to help set up refegee camps for them. His murder leaves two children fatherless - the younger of those children is four years old. The people who carried out this sickening crime must have known all these things, but they did not care. They claimed to act for a religion which is called by a name which means "Peace" and on behalf of a God whose followers describe him as "The Compassionate, the Merciful." Their actions prove that they...

Quote of the day 14th September 2014

“Intelligence is not how much you know, but how you use it.” (Maryann Austin)

Quote of the day 13th September 2014

"When eagles are silent, parrots begin to chatter.” ( Winston Churchill )

On the Economic consequences of Scottish Independence

The vote next week is a decision for the people of Scotland. If I lived there I would be casting a positive vote to keep the UK together because I believe that all four nations are stronger and better off as part of a common family. There has been a certain amount of scaremongering on both sides - for example, there is no other way to describe the ridiculous nonsense which the SNP has put out about the NHS - but the irony of the economic arguments is that, while a well-run Scotland might well be economically successful, the economically illiterate plans of the SNP are a recipe for disappointment. Three good articles today on the subject: a humorous and a serious commentary on the suggestion by RBS and others that they might move their HQs to England in the event of a "Yes" vote, and an article on the danger that Salmond's policies might drive away the business investment he would need. Alistair Heath writes convincingly about what an independent Scotland would nee...

Quote of the day 12th September 2014, and Exchange of the week

On Political Betting (known as PB to its' regulars) this week a poster called Scott_P said: 'If Salmond hadn't lost the plot before he has now. Unstatesmanlike wittering about leak inquiries and "BBC bias"' A poster called "DecrepitJohnL" replied that "To be fair to Salmond, if blaming BBC bias disqualified anyone from office, we'd have no MPs and precious few pb posters."

Quote of the day 11th September 2014 - INVICTUS

"Out of the night that covers me, Black as the pit from pole to pole, I thank whatever gods may be For my unconquerable soul. "In the fell clutch of circumstance I have not winced nor cried aloud. Under the bludgeonings of chance My head is bloody, but unbowed. "Beyond this place of wrath and tears Looms but the Horror of the shade, And yet the menace of the years Finds and shall find me unafraid. "It matters not how strait the gate, How charged with punishments the scroll, I am the master of my fate, I am the captain of my soul." (By William Ernest Henley 1849–1903) My congratulations to all those involved in setting up the Invictus games for wounded war veterans which opened in London last night, and my warmest good wishes to all the participants.

Britain's EU commissioner gets key economic role ...

The President-elect of the EU commission has obviously decided that it would be helpful to mend some fences with Britain and has offered Lord Hill, the new British EU Commissioner, the important newly-created role of running the EU's work on Financial stability, financial services and capital markets. Now I know and understand that among large sections of the British population the activities of a relatively small proportion of those employed in banking have given the entire sector a reputation which is rather worse than that of anthrax. The fact remains that most people who work in banking are ordinary decent people working hard at an important job and not being paid a ridiculously overgenerous wage for it, and furthermore that the financial services sector both brings in a huge proportion of Britain's earnings of foreign exchange, and pays a lot of tax which in turn funds a big chunk of the cost of our schools and hospitals. Lord Hill's appointment to this role gre...

Quote of the day 10th September 2014

“The enemy is anybody who's going to get you killed, no matter which side he is on.”    ( Joseph Heller , Catch-22  )

You couldn't make it up: "The Far Side" gets ever closer..

Between the Islamic State (formerly ISIS), Rotherham, and various other horrible stories there wasn't much of a "silly season" this summer but I noticed one story which almost could have been one. Cartoonist Gary Larson's "Far Side" strip projected a future "Age of Cows" and it seems that high tech cows are getting closer and closer. Earlier this year details of a scheme for "Connected Cows" through a product called Silent herdsman" was announced here , with the tagline  Connected cows produce more milk ." Now it seems that the National Trust has given BT a contract to put large numbers of rare cattle on the phone, but putting a SIM card in their collars to track them. The mind boggles ...

Quote of the day 9th September 2014

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”    ( Charles Darwin  )

Education Secretary Nicky Morgan: our children are our future

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Nicky Morgan, Secretary of State for education, writes; Every child deserves a great education and the chance to get on in life. So, as part of our plan for education, we're making sure children have the best teachers - recruiting inspiring people who might not have considered teaching before but have so much to offer in the classroom. We're working with school heads to restore discipline and improve standards - and 80,000 more children are starting secondary school with a good understanding of English and Maths than under Labour. We're opening a record number of new schools - and more children than ever before are attending schools ranked as 'good' or 'outstanding'. Delivering the best schools and skills for children and young people is a central part of our long-term economic plan. If you support our plan, and want to help secure a better future for Britain, donate £20 today. Labour were in power for 13 long years - and under them, s...

Quote of the day 8th September 2014

“Humor keeps us alive. Humor and food. Don't forget food. You can go a week without laughing.”    ( Joss Whedon )

Wake Up Call

A 1% lead for "Yes" well within the margin of error, in one YouGov poll in the Sunday Times, is proof that the Indyref could produce a vote for Scottish Independence, not proof that it will. But this really ought to be a wake-up call for everyone on both sides of the Border. Those North of the border must realise that this is not just an opportunity for a protest vote - the breakup of the UK could actually happen. If that's what you really want, fine, but think long and hard about it - because I don't believe anyone on either side fully undedrstands all the ramifications. For all of us on both sides of the border, this should wake us up to the fact that the UK has been too centralised for too long. If it survives the next fortnight we should work out a proper Federal structure for the British family of nations and work out what should be dealt with at UK level - presumably Foreign affrairs, Defence, Trade, and at least top level budgetting and economics - an...

Matthew's biggest mistake since his Council House letter

Matthew Parris is a very clever, interesting, honest, and usually very wise man, who is very perceptive most of the time and on the rare occasions when I violently disagree with him, his views are usually worth reading. But as he himself sometimes make a joke of when booked as a speaker, his career includes some very unfortunate faux pas. Up until this week, probably the worst was when he was working in the office of the then Leader of the Opposition, Margaret Thatcher, in the run up to the 1979 election. A council house tenant wrote to Maggie about Conservative policy towards housing, and he wrote a letter back about the subsidy provided to council housing which said what he actually thought, not what was tactful. The letter was enough of a gift to Labour that they printed off thousands of copies and circulated it in some constituencies. That was my first election and I still remember it, and I recall my then MP cursing Matthew after he had people chasing after him whil...

Quote of the day 7th September August 2014

“The public is wonderfully tolerant. It forgives everything except genius.”   ( Oscar Wilde  )

Economists write in the FT - Scotland can't have both the pound and genuine independence

There is an excellent set of assessments by leading economists of the currency options for an Independent Scotland in the Financial Times here . The six contributors, several of whom have strong Scottish credentials, are: *  Dame DeAnne Julius, former Monetary Policy Committee member and Bank of England court director *  Sam Bowman, research director at the Adam Smith Institute * Professor Anton Muscatelli, University of Glasgow *  Tony Yates, Reader in Economics at University of Bristol * Angus Armstrong, director of macroeconomics at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research * Ronald MacDonald, professor, Adam Smith chair of political economy, University of Glasgow They don't all have the same view of the merits of the different options, but all of them have interesting things to say. The main view common to most of these economists, if expressed in significantly different ways, is that if Scotland wants to have a form of ...

If the Royal Navy went politically-correct ...

Since at least the time I was at University in the eighties, an element of the "stop the world, I want to get off" ultra-naive left has been slagging off our armed forces for not complying with various aspects of what would now be called politic correctness. A surprising percentage of this comes from people who owe their very lives to the British armed forces, without whom they or their parents or grandparents would have been murdered. E.g. from individuals who belong to one or more of the groups who would have been exterminated by the pro-Nazi puppet regime which we would presumably have had our armed forces not stopped Hitler and helped to defeat him. There was a very amusing post on "Political Betting" yesterday by a poster using the name MikeK , about what would happen to the Royal Navy if some of these demands were conceded. Here are some extracts ... "The Royal Navy is proud to announce its new fleet of Type 45 destroyers. Having initially named th...

Quote of the day 6th September 2014

While commandant of the Army's staff college in 1910, Brigadier Henry Wilson predicted that a major European war was likely. A student disagreed and ventured the opinion that only "inconceivable stupidity" on the part of statesmen could precipitate a general war. General Wilson laughed derisively and replied, "Inconceivable stupidity is just what you're going to get." (He was, of course, proved right four years later, a hundred years ago this year.)

Feeding the Monster

There are websites on which I can hardly bear to read the comments section because of the level of vitriol and hatred which radiates from the screen. Fortunately, although I have occasionally had to block individual comments on this site or threaten to do so, the vast majority of contributors have been civilised and made interesting points. One of the things which has struck me as a matter of great concern in relation to the debate about Scottish Independence as we head into the last few days before the referendum, is how angry and unpleasant some of that debate has been. It would be facile, and just plain unfair, to attribute all of this to one side. There have been plenty of campaigners on both sides who have managed to be civilised and put forward constructive and positive arguments, some of which deserve to be addressed whichever way the vote goes. Nevertheless, I have noticed that the tone of the debate has often been nasty, and although the majority is not guilty of thi...

Quote of the day 5th September 2014

"There is a certain irony in the Tories holding an internet driven open primary in Clacton to select their candidate and UKIP HQ imposing Douglas Carswell, the prophet of iDemocracy, as their candidate." (Paul Staines, a.k.a. Guido Fawkes, in a blog post  here .)

GDP Figures revised upwards

The UK’s GDP has been significantly revised up by the Office for National Statistics - growth since 2010 is now estimated to have been 1 percentage point higher than previously thought, showing that our long-term plan is building a stronger and healthier economy. This encouraging news is further evidence that our long-term economic plan to secure a healthy economy is working. That means more jobs and greater security and peace of mind for hardworking British taxpayers. The GDP figure revisions shows that since 2010 this country has grown faster than France, faster than Germany, and faster than any major economy apart from Canada and the United States of America. The deficit has been cut by over a third, there are over two million more private sector jobs and 400,000 more businesses. However, we cannot afford an atom of complacency, because, as the previous post illustrated, the job is not yet done. The Great Recession remains the deepest since records began, and r...

The Economics of Fantasyland

If I were a resident of Scotland who was a pragmatic supporter of the principle of independence, but willing to make a decision one the basis of an open-minded look at the practicalities of what is currently proposed, I think I would by now have reluctantly decided to vote "No" becauset for all their bluster and increasingly ludicrous claims to the contrary, the package that "Yes" is trying to sell to the Scots people is not properly thought through or prepared and would lead to all kinds of chaos. But there are a lot of straws in the wind which suggest that the fantasyland economics put forward by the SNP is having much more impactg than it should. There is a very well argued piece on the "Think Scotland" site here , written by Bill Jamieson, which poitns out that even the British economic recovery, though their are genuine encouraging signs and is much better than the position of the rest of the EU, is not as secure as we would like, and has "fant...

Sajid Javid MP writes on Labour's Summer Spending Spree:

Culture Secretary Sajid Javid writes ... Whatever you did over the summer, I'm guessing you didn't go on a £21 billion spending spree. But, unbelievably, that's exactly what Labour did. They made a host of promises - including more spending on benefits - which analysis shows would cost hardworking taxpayers £20.955 billion. In return, they only set out £105 million worth of spending cuts to pay for them. £20.955 billion of spending minus £105 million of savings = £20.850 billion of unfunded spending commitments, which hardworking families would pay for with higher taxes and more debt. We've got to stop Labour getting into power and wrecking our economy again. Labour STILL haven't learnt their lesson. After taking Britain's economy to the brink and opposing every spending reduction we've made, Labour have spent the summer promising billions of pounds of inefficient and ineffective spending. With just eight months to go until the General Election...