Please God this prediction does not come true

Iain Dale's latest seat by seat election prediction here is for the Conservatives and Labour to be on a dead heat with 275 MPs each, not enough Lib/Dem seats to form a coalition with either of those parties, and 42 SNP MPs.

I do hope this one does not come true, that would be a recipe for complete paralysis and probably a second general election in 2015, though that is much harder to arrange because of the fixed term parliament act.

But essentially the election is not pre-ordained, voters can choose how they vote.

Comments

Jim said…
I dont think its Lib dem seats that really come into play here, its SNP ones, a Lab/SNP coalition (in my opinion the most likely) is only 12 seats short under this prediction (7 if you take out the sinn finn seats which are not taken
4:24 pm
Chris Whiteside said…
Basically the parliament would be hung six ways to Sunday and goodness only knows what policies would emerge - I suspect you would have a very weak and fairly left-wing Labour minority government getting some of its' business through via a confidence and supply arrangement with the SNP.
7:21 pm
Jim said…
my main point was really that an snp / labour coalition is only 12 seats short of a majority according to this poll.

as you said the election is not a done deal until the polling stations close. But once again my point is, the Lab/SNP coalition is moving towards a safer bet than anything else.

IMPORTANT BIT - by safer bet of course
I only mean a safer bet if you are betting on the election results, not a safer bet as a government - let me make that clear, in fact i will add the html to bold that bit to make it clearer
8:51 pm
Chris Whiteside said…
I understand exactly what you are mean, and although I am hopeful that there will be a swing back to the Conservatives, on the present polls you are right.

Let's just hope that when people are actually making the choice and not just speaking to opinion pollsters the implications hit home to them.
8:58 pm
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