Friday, November 13, 2015

Hell has officially frozen over - The SNP admit they got something wrong !

Glory be - Nicola Sturgeon has actually admitted that the oil revenue figures the SNP used to underpin the economic case for independence during the referendum campaign were wrong.

Actually "wrong" doesn't really cut it.

The "Yes" campaign's figures were overoptimistic to such an enormous degree that it would take an increase in the rate of income tax in Scotland of 17 pence in the pound to fill the hole in the Scottish government's budget left by a shortfall in oil revenues.

The latest official figures from the Office of Budget responsibility suggest revenues of £600 billion - compared to the SNP estimate during the referendum campaign of £7.9 billion - more than thirteen times higher!

The independent Institute of Fiscal Studies has published figures which suggest that an independent Scotland would be £7.9 billion deeper in the red than at present.

So if you are listening to people in a referendum campaign make impressive sounding claims, take them with a pinch of salt - and that goes for both sides. Watch out very carefully for holes in the arguments !


Jim said...

interesting one this.

yes, the SMP did that to no avail, so you nailed that bit.

when you say on the referendum however, I assume you mean on the EU referendum, which, of course is about "who governs the UK"

well the answer to all your fears and questions lies here, it always has now for once just read it.

Chris Whiteside said...

Yes, I was drawing attention to similarities between the Scottish and EU referenda.

In both these campaigns, both sides largely ignored their committed supporters and opponents and aimed much of their campaigning at the people in the idle who tend to care about things like whether Britain/Scotland is likely to be richer In or Out.

And sadly, in both campaigns both sides have talked an awful lot of rubbish on such subjects.