Interesting times ...
For obvious reasons, I have not seen any sign of a swing to the Liberal Democrats: if they were to win every seat in England except one, this would be the one.
In the constituency where I live, work, and am campaigning, nearly a quarter of the working population are directly employed by an industry which it is Liberal Democrat policy to close down. (And many more people work in businesses for which the nuclear industry or its' employees are a major part of the customer base.)
In fairness, Frank Hollowell, the Lib/Dem candidate in Copeland, does not support his party's anti-nuclear policy. But as he wants Nick Clegg to be in a position of power, and "Calamity Clegg" is on record as saying that the thousands of Cumbrians who his policies would throw out of work (probably about 17,000) could find something else to do, Frank is unlikely even to finish in the first three.
Consequently the recent Lib/Dem surge in the opinion polls has passed most of Copeland by - they may pick up a few more votes around Keswick but that's about it.
Apart from Frank and his agent, I've only met one person in West Cumbria so far in this campaign who was willing to admit that she was considering voting Lib/Dem, a lady who lives at Drigg (round the corner from the LLWR). It took me four seconds to put paid to that with the question "You do know that the Lib/Dems want to shut down the nuclear industry?"
So the main reaction in West Cumbria to the most recent opinion polls seems to be a mixture of bemusement, disbelief, and concern: probably what you would get in Dagenham if a party committed to abolishing the motor car had a big surge in the polls.
For a whole host of reasons, we should see the current bout of "Cleggmania" not as indicating that the election result is already determined but that it is wide open and all the parties have everything to play for.
Hat tip to Political Betting where one poster points out that the details of the Sunday Times YOUGOV poll show that
1) The Tories are 13% ahead with older voters (who tend to actually vote)
2) The Tories are 6% ahead of the Lib/Dems and 8% clear of Labour in England, and
3) The Lib/Dem surge is largely among the under 35s.
If there isn't a significant change in the pattern of who turns out to vote, (usually in recent elections older voters have been most likely to do so and younger voters least likely,) then the polls over the last few days could be understating the Conservative position and overstating the Lib/Dem position.
More to the point, the Lib/Dem bounce was the result of the first of three debates. The experience of US elections, where presidential candidates have held debates for years, is that the last debate is the most influential. There is everything to play for.
I do not normally turn to the News of the World for classic political journalism, but they have an article today called "The Tamagotchi of British Politics" which refuses to get carried away by the hype and makes a measured reponse
Examples of comments from the article
"There was nothing in Clegg's performance to mark him out specially, other than the indisputable fact that he could point at the other two leaders and say: "I'm none of the above.
"He won by default because, well, he's a novelty.
"On Thursday, Clegg took the moral high ground over expenses, while his own MPs were up to their necks in corruption as the Westminster gravy train ran free.
"And that's before we get round to the fact that the Lib Dems still refuse to give up £2.4million donated to them by fraudster Michael Brown.
"Then there's his party's disarray on the issue of Trident nuclear missiles. Clegg wants to scrap them - but during his leadership campaign three years ago he opposed the move.
"Or how about crime? Clegg's Lib Dems want to scrap prison sentences under six months, a move that would see thousands of criminals freed.
"Out of the three party leaders, Nick Clegg is now under the greatest pressure. He goes into the next leaders' debate with much to lose.
"Wait until English voters - notoriously twitchy about all matters European - hear him explain his continued desire to scrap the Pound in favour of the Euro."
Quite.
In the constituency where I live, work, and am campaigning, nearly a quarter of the working population are directly employed by an industry which it is Liberal Democrat policy to close down. (And many more people work in businesses for which the nuclear industry or its' employees are a major part of the customer base.)
In fairness, Frank Hollowell, the Lib/Dem candidate in Copeland, does not support his party's anti-nuclear policy. But as he wants Nick Clegg to be in a position of power, and "Calamity Clegg" is on record as saying that the thousands of Cumbrians who his policies would throw out of work (probably about 17,000) could find something else to do, Frank is unlikely even to finish in the first three.
Consequently the recent Lib/Dem surge in the opinion polls has passed most of Copeland by - they may pick up a few more votes around Keswick but that's about it.
Apart from Frank and his agent, I've only met one person in West Cumbria so far in this campaign who was willing to admit that she was considering voting Lib/Dem, a lady who lives at Drigg (round the corner from the LLWR). It took me four seconds to put paid to that with the question "You do know that the Lib/Dems want to shut down the nuclear industry?"
So the main reaction in West Cumbria to the most recent opinion polls seems to be a mixture of bemusement, disbelief, and concern: probably what you would get in Dagenham if a party committed to abolishing the motor car had a big surge in the polls.
For a whole host of reasons, we should see the current bout of "Cleggmania" not as indicating that the election result is already determined but that it is wide open and all the parties have everything to play for.
Hat tip to Political Betting where one poster points out that the details of the Sunday Times YOUGOV poll show that
1) The Tories are 13% ahead with older voters (who tend to actually vote)
2) The Tories are 6% ahead of the Lib/Dems and 8% clear of Labour in England, and
3) The Lib/Dem surge is largely among the under 35s.
If there isn't a significant change in the pattern of who turns out to vote, (usually in recent elections older voters have been most likely to do so and younger voters least likely,) then the polls over the last few days could be understating the Conservative position and overstating the Lib/Dem position.
More to the point, the Lib/Dem bounce was the result of the first of three debates. The experience of US elections, where presidential candidates have held debates for years, is that the last debate is the most influential. There is everything to play for.
I do not normally turn to the News of the World for classic political journalism, but they have an article today called "The Tamagotchi of British Politics" which refuses to get carried away by the hype and makes a measured reponse
Examples of comments from the article
"There was nothing in Clegg's performance to mark him out specially, other than the indisputable fact that he could point at the other two leaders and say: "I'm none of the above.
"He won by default because, well, he's a novelty.
"On Thursday, Clegg took the moral high ground over expenses, while his own MPs were up to their necks in corruption as the Westminster gravy train ran free.
"And that's before we get round to the fact that the Lib Dems still refuse to give up £2.4million donated to them by fraudster Michael Brown.
"Then there's his party's disarray on the issue of Trident nuclear missiles. Clegg wants to scrap them - but during his leadership campaign three years ago he opposed the move.
"Or how about crime? Clegg's Lib Dems want to scrap prison sentences under six months, a move that would see thousands of criminals freed.
"Out of the three party leaders, Nick Clegg is now under the greatest pressure. He goes into the next leaders' debate with much to lose.
"Wait until English voters - notoriously twitchy about all matters European - hear him explain his continued desire to scrap the Pound in favour of the Euro."
Quite.
Comments
he looks nice, sounds nice, I think I'll vote for him.
firstly, following one good debabe on TV, the public will now demand much more out of him this thursday, the stakes are much higher, he now has something to lose.
secondly, opinion polls seem to mirror x factor style phone in votes. I think the British public will use their vote wisely come election day, and will let policy decide the outcome.
Interestingly Paddy Ashdown reminded the presenter in no uncertain terms that the mandate to govern is with the people (electorate.) How dare they (the media) think that they can dictate it.
The 'Big Debate' was wooden, passionless and devoid of factual information. Apparently the person burgled ten times in London lived in Hull and the incidents happened ten years ago.
Gordon Brown is attempting to use this situation to stay in power. However, Liberals are libertarians, with a tradition that developed alongside the Tories. Liberals generally hate state control, regulation and bureaucracy. Liberal supporters should not forget Labours dubious motives for entering into the war with Iraq.
Liberals and Labour are chalk and cheese. I would give a hung Parliament six months and another election would follow. In that time the economy would be in chaos. Anyone with money will have invested it elsewhere, the markets will go plonk!
Get a strong decisive Conservative Government in now, draw the bad tooth and get over with what has to be faced, the sooner the better.
Remember we have promised to protect essential services i.e. NHS
A cynical distortion of the democratic process is occurring. In 1997 Gordon Brown rejected Tony Blair’s attempt to strike a deal with the then leader of the Liberal Democrats, Paddy Ashdown. Gordon Brown has consistently rejected proposals for electoral reform. Now he embraces it. He plans to use the Liberal Democrats (who are ideologically and in historical tradition on another planet) to keep his unpopular party and himself in power.
A cynical perversion of this country’s political system is in play. Nick Clegg is a nice chap (and incidentally as posh as David Cameron though for expediencies sake Labour have forgotten the class war for the moment) but being a good television presenter does not make a good calibre leader. How on earth is this alliance going to resolve the economic crisis and tackle the debt problem?
Ironically a deal with Labour would totally compromise Nick Clegg’s apparent fresh-faced idealism. How in a month of Sundays could he reconcile himself to supporting the people that he so vehemently opposed in leading the country into a legally dubious war in Iraq? How on earth can a deal be struck over nuclear power that Liberal Democrats are so adamant in opposing. Labour has been forced by necessity to adopt a nuclear programme. How can Nick Clegg’s conscience, committed to individual freedom, civil liberties and human rights form an alliance with Labours’ totalitarian statist intervention, which has driven a coach and horses through our constitutional traditions and interfered in the personal lives of the population. How can Clegg unto himself be true? How can so severely a personally compromised person make a strong leader? Answer he can’t Brown will be in control.
In supporting Labour Clegg would, in probable naivety, destroy the very ideals he purports to support. Clegg would at least on the level of actus reus be guilty of aiding and abetting the destruction of democracy, subverting the political system, so that Labour can keep the Conservatives in permanent opposition.
I sincerely hope that the British electorate will see through this media created hype, which Gordon Brown is exploiting to stay in power. Vote for a Government that will provide the strong leadership necessary to tackle the debt crisis and stay true to protecting the traditions of this country. A vote for Nick Clegg is a vote for Gordon Brown. I have faith that on the day the people of this country will see reality and not ‘Reality TV!’