Political Betting on the Euro elections

Mike Smithson argues on his excellent "political betting" website here that it's a "value bet" for the 2014 European parliament elections that the Conservatives will top the poll.

This doesn't mean Mike is making a firm prediction that this will happen, although he notes that the Conservatives have in fact topped the poll in every single european election since the present voting system was introduced in 1999, it means he thinks the odds currently available of six to one against the Conservatives doing so are a considerable understatement of the actual chances.

The press seems to almost take for granted that UKIP will top the Euro poll, but Farage's party may have peaked a year early and there has been a steady drip of negative stories about them.

Plus the Conservatives will go into the 2014 European elections with a good story to tell and more united than we have been on Europe for many years.

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