The UKIP Paradox
Hat Tip to Political Betting for pointing out at a paradox in the opinion polls - at the same time that hte UK Independence party is doing very well in the polls, support for British membership of the EU is polling at a record high level.
They are probably right that part of this may be a ripple from the Scottish Indyref and that part can be explained because the rise in UKIP is having a polarising effect - they are about as "Marmite" (love them or hate them) as a broadly mainstream party can get.
If there is a referendum, I don't think either side can take the result for granted. As with Scotland, the battle will narrow as we get close to the event, and unless one side really blows it - as the "Yes" camp did in the AV referendum and the "No" side got uncomfortably close to doing in the Indyref before pulling their socks up in the final month - I would expect an IN-OUT referendum to present a nerve-wracking possibility of going either way.
I still think we should hold one. First, because for all the faults of democracy it is a better way to run a country than any other, and there are times when you should trust the people to make the decision. My parents' generation were given a vote on whether to join the "Common Market" but nobody has ever asked the British electorate whether they want to be part of the European Union and they were cheated out of a referendum on Lisbon by Gordon Brown.
And second because I am fed up to the back teeth with the damage which uncertainty on the question of whether Britain should be part of the EU is doing. I want it settled one way or the other for a generation, and the only way to do that is to appeal to the final authority in Britain, which is the British people themselves, to take a decision. And then both sides should respect that result, whatever it is.
They are probably right that part of this may be a ripple from the Scottish Indyref and that part can be explained because the rise in UKIP is having a polarising effect - they are about as "Marmite" (love them or hate them) as a broadly mainstream party can get.
If there is a referendum, I don't think either side can take the result for granted. As with Scotland, the battle will narrow as we get close to the event, and unless one side really blows it - as the "Yes" camp did in the AV referendum and the "No" side got uncomfortably close to doing in the Indyref before pulling their socks up in the final month - I would expect an IN-OUT referendum to present a nerve-wracking possibility of going either way.
I still think we should hold one. First, because for all the faults of democracy it is a better way to run a country than any other, and there are times when you should trust the people to make the decision. My parents' generation were given a vote on whether to join the "Common Market" but nobody has ever asked the British electorate whether they want to be part of the European Union and they were cheated out of a referendum on Lisbon by Gordon Brown.
And second because I am fed up to the back teeth with the damage which uncertainty on the question of whether Britain should be part of the EU is doing. I want it settled one way or the other for a generation, and the only way to do that is to appeal to the final authority in Britain, which is the British people themselves, to take a decision. And then both sides should respect that result, whatever it is.
Comments
on your quote " there are times when you should trust the people to make the decision"
you seem to have the cart before the horse here. Its the peoples desision to make, no one elses, the desision is that of the people, the same as any other desision on any matter of governance. The people can trust the politicians to make some minor ones on their behalf. Things like "in which order should the ingredients in a packet of smarties be listed" but there you go, its the people who trust the politicians to look after the minor things, It is never, never, NEVER, the politicans who "trust" the people on the major ones.
as for "over for a generation" well it cant be until we have more information. What does "in" mean, does it mean this far and no further, does it mean yes to what ever comes, does it mean oh lets opt into the Euro as well. I mean what is "IN", at the same time what is "OUT" which route, do we remain in the single market? do we not?
its all down to the exit plan again. As I said earlier and its still true, leaving the European Union is not an event, it is a process, its not something that is ended by a single yes/no referendum for an entire generation (however long one of those is)- thats just a political sound bite.
I think that's a bit of a quibble about the form of words, Jim.
You and I both think that the people of Britain are the ultimate authority, that direct democracy should be increased, and that the whole electorate should take the decision on EU membership. There might be other areas where we disagree which decisions are best taken by direct democracy and which delegated to an elected representative body but this is not one of them.