On finding a balanced tweet on X

It is not all that often that you find a balanced and nuanced perspective on a political or religious issue in a tweet on X, formerly Twitter.

Nevertheless I found one this morning.

I rarely have as much sympathy and understanding for the position of people who have come down on the opposite side of an issue from me as I have over the attacks on Iran. (Brexit was another but let's not open that can of worms.)

I explained yesterday here, the position of the Conservative leadership, which I agree with. I quoted in that post the statements by Kemi Badenoch and Priti Patel. I have read the opinion by the shadow attorney general on why he believes the attacks on Iran by the US and Israel were justified under international law, which I will repost on my blog shortly, and his argument convinces me, though I respect those who take a different view.

The views in the rest of this post are my own and not necessarily those of the Conservative party.

My view, on balance, is that the Iranian theocratic regime had no democratic legitimacy, has been murdering their own people in job lots since coming to power in 1979 and continued to butcher and oppress them, has been exporting terror around the world, including more than fifteen attempted terror attacks on this country, and that the regime posed enough of a clear and present danger both to its' own people and everyone in the Middle East that action against them was justified.

 It is no accident that in the past 24 hours just about every arab state, and the Palestinian authority, condemned the Iranian regime.

The reason that Trump and Netanyahu will get away with this - and they will - is that even most of the people who don't like either of them, other than many Western liberals of course, loathe the Iranian regime far more, and mostly for very good reasons.

But, but, but, and again but! (to borrow the words of the late Ian Fleming)

Attacking another country, and killing or arresting its' leaders should be a last resort and should only be done when you have a clear cassus belli, a plan to ensure that a democratic regime, or at least a better one, takes over, and an exit strategy.

It is totally legitimate to ask questions about whether any or all of these tests were met.

Which brings me to the tweet by Tom Nicholls, who said this:

"People predicting disaster: The odds are in your favor, but you cannot be sure, and you should not hope to be right.

People celebrating: Maybe wanna wait a bit. The odds, historically, are definitely not on your side.

Anyone certain they know what happens next is making it up."




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