What is happening to death rates around the world
All international comparisons about death rates during this Coronavirus pandemic should be treated with caution, including the one I am about to refer to, and especially if someone appears to be trying to rush to a premature judgement that a government they never liked is performing really badly or one they like is doing well.
I do think this comparison which I have taken from a New York times article here says something we can learn from. A very similar calculation has been done by The Economist magazine.
In various different countries around the world, total death rates from all causes death rates roughly tracked the number of deaths you would normally expect in that country at that time of year for the first eight to ten weeks or so. Then in March the death rates in all these countries took a steep jump upward to well above the normal level of deaths. Here are the graphs for England and wales plus seven other parts of the world:
Many European countries have seen a rise in the daily number of people dying to twenty or thirty percent above normal numbers. It seems to be worst in large and densely populated global cities. For example, the death rate in Paris is about double normal levels and New York city has experienced almost four times the normal death rate.
In every case except Belgium and Sweden the amount by which the death rates exceeds normal levels is significantly higher than current official estimates of deaths from COVID-19. That is almost certainly partly because those figures are underestimates, but it may also indicate that the pandemic is indirectly increasing the number of deaths from causes other than COVID-19. For example, people who have other conditions may be afraid to go into hospital for fear of catching COVID-19, and then dying avoidably from those other conditions because they were afraid to get medical help;.
Incidentally, if anyone reading this in the UK is worried about going to the hospital with a chest pain or other potentially dangerous condition, there are separate entrances for suspected Coronavirus patients and great efforts are being made to keep hospitals open and safe for anyone who really needs hospital treatment.
Here is a table of the numbers behind the graphs above plus two other parts of the world:
I'm not trying to make any point about whether the UK government of any of the other governments responsible for health in these areas have done well or badly. It's very likely that they have all done some things well and others less so. All these countries have social distancing measures of various kinds in place to try to control the disease and without them it is likely that the numbers of deaths would be even worse.
I do think this comparison which I have taken from a New York times article here says something we can learn from. A very similar calculation has been done by The Economist magazine.
In various different countries around the world, total death rates from all causes death rates roughly tracked the number of deaths you would normally expect in that country at that time of year for the first eight to ten weeks or so. Then in March the death rates in all these countries took a steep jump upward to well above the normal level of deaths. Here are the graphs for England and wales plus seven other parts of the world:
Many European countries have seen a rise in the daily number of people dying to twenty or thirty percent above normal numbers. It seems to be worst in large and densely populated global cities. For example, the death rate in Paris is about double normal levels and New York city has experienced almost four times the normal death rate.
In every case except Belgium and Sweden the amount by which the death rates exceeds normal levels is significantly higher than current official estimates of deaths from COVID-19. That is almost certainly partly because those figures are underestimates, but it may also indicate that the pandemic is indirectly increasing the number of deaths from causes other than COVID-19. For example, people who have other conditions may be afraid to go into hospital for fear of catching COVID-19, and then dying avoidably from those other conditions because they were afraid to get medical help;.
Incidentally, if anyone reading this in the UK is worried about going to the hospital with a chest pain or other potentially dangerous condition, there are separate entrances for suspected Coronavirus patients and great efforts are being made to keep hospitals open and safe for anyone who really needs hospital treatment.
Here is a table of the numbers behind the graphs above plus two other parts of the world:
I'm not trying to make any point about whether the UK government of any of the other governments responsible for health in these areas have done well or badly. It's very likely that they have all done some things well and others less so. All these countries have social distancing measures of various kinds in place to try to control the disease and without them it is likely that the numbers of deaths would be even worse.
My purpose in sharing this is to debunk the idea, which some people still apparently believe, that COVID-19 isn't that much worse than normal flu and that most of the people it has killed would have died soon of something else anyway. These figures show that the number of people we are losing is far worse than that.
All the more reason why we need to be very careful about relaxing the measures without which the death rates would be even higher
Comments
The New York Times analysis is similar to one which had previously been done by the Economist which can be found at
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries
That piece does have a couple of references to Germany, but no tables or graphs, and this is appears to be because Germany, and I quote,
"has yet to release recent total mortality data."
That doesn't necessarily mean Germany is hiding anything, they may be giving a lower priority than other countries to publishing something quickly and a higher priority to publishing something comprehensive.