My predictions for 2026

Here are some thoughts on what the New Year will bring.


1) Labour will take a massive beating in most of the UK in the May 2026 elections. Most of the other parties - Conservatives, Reform UK, Greens, Lib/Dems and Nationalists - will be able to point to at least some victories and encouraging signs but Labour will lose overall and very badly.


2) Following the May elections Keir Starmer will step down as PM or be forced out by the Labour party and the candidates to succeed him will include Ed Miliband, Angela Rayner, and Wes Streeting.


3) The UK economy will continue to suffer from the harmful policies of Rachel Reeves and if she is replaced by Starmer's successor, those of the new chancellor.


4) Attempts to set up peace negotiations to end the war which resulted from President Putin's illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine will continue throughout the year but fail because Vladimir Putin is not interested in offering any peace deal which Ukraine would find acceptable.


5) Putin will continue to murder Ukrainian civilians with air strikes and throw away the lives of tens of thousands of his own men with "meatwave" attacks. Putin may be able to point to some superficial territorial gains secured at horrendous cost in Russian lives, but Ukraine's front lines will not collapse. At the end of 2026 the war will continue.


6) The precarious ceasefire in Gaza will remain under enormous strain throughout the year but never quite collapse. Israel will continue to be blamed for this by many people though in fact more Palestinians will die at the hands of groups like Hamas than at the hands of the Israelis.


7) Labour's progress will continue towards setting a unique double in British electoral history as a one term government voted in and out at consecutive general elections with the largest gain of seats in history followed by the largest loss of seats in history. At the end of the year Labour's performance in the voting intention and approval rating polls will remain some of the worst in history.


8) At the end of the year I will dig these predictions out and see how I did. Some of them will be right and some of them will be wrong. If I have five or more right I think I will be entitled to say I did pretty well. If I have two or fewer right I will never try this again! 




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