Wednesday, November 09, 2016

Coming to terms with President-elect Trump

Like everyone else in the world I am having to come to terms with the fact that the pollsters have got it wrong yet again and Donald J Trump is President-elect of the USA.

I am trying, not entirely successfully, not to feel like the people in this Daily Mash spoof article (bad language warning).

Twelve years ago after the re-election of George W Bush (of whom I was not a fan,) one of the more left-wing of Britain's broadsheet newspapers (I think it was the Guardian though it might have been the Independent) published a supplement with a black cover which had just the two words "Oh God!" on it and inside the entire thing consisted of left-wing luvvies whining hysterically about how upset they were by Bush's re-election.

It was far and away the funniest thing I read in 2004 and made me feel infinitely better about another four years of "Dubya" on the grounds that anyone who had so thoroughly upset the authors of that document could not be all bad.

Don't think I would have the same reaction if one of the papers pulled the same stunt tomorrow.

Incidentally, on the subject of polls being wrong, I note that some of the pollsters have owned up and admitted that they fouled up by the numbers but others are still in denial, and are trying to clutch at straws by suggesting that Clinton may yet win the popular vote: that isn't much of an excuse because the rules say you win the White House by carrying states just as you win Number Ten by gaining a majority of seats in the House of Commons.

What this year shows is that you can never take the electorate, or any given vote, for granted. Perhaps the most important lesson is that politicians of all parties need to listen more to those who feel disengaged - and that there are rich rewards for those who can persuade those who have felt ignored and disengaged from the political process that they will indeed listen to them.

There is an interesting article by Anthony Zurcher on why Trump won here on the BBC site, which all political campaigners should note as it makes some important points about how he completely ignored conventional wisdom on how to fight an election campaign yet still won:

"Mr Trump ran the most unconventional of political campaigns, but it turned out he knew better than all the experts.
He spent more on hats than on pollsters. He travelled to states like Wisconsin and Michigan that pundits said were out of reach.

He held massive rallies instead of focusing on door-knocking and get-out-the-vote operations.

He had a disjointed, sometimes chaotic national political convention that was capped by an acceptance speech that was more doom-and-gloom than any in modern US political history.

He was vastly outspent by the Clinton campaign, just as he was during the Republican primaries. He turned consensus wisdom about how to win the presidency on its head.

All of these decisions - and many more - were roundly ridiculed in "knowledgeable" circles.

In the end, however, they worked. Mr Trump and his closest confidants - his children and a few chosen advisers - will have the last laugh. And they'll do it from the White House."


Jim said...

pollsters have got it wrong yet again and Donald J Trump is President-elect of the USA

- a fact I have known since the end of the primarys, and whilst i may not have noted it on this blog I certainly did on Facebook, Hillary can not beat trump, Bernie possibly can.

So its pretty much something i have had a couple of months to get used to.

Stop going from the polls, put your ear to the ground, you will learn more, trust me on this.

"Coventional wisdom" is over, its day is done. the system is breaking, we see it by the fact we actually won the referendum here, and we see it across the pond too. the system is falling, and go on can you guess how I am going to end this comment? oh go on.

- And that's why we need Harrogate.

Jim said...

besides its not all bad, Every cloud has a silver lining as they say, so here is the silver lining:

1, Hillary Lost
2, the USD will more than likey fall, meaning cheaper fuel
3, Hillary Lost
4, Stuff on the internet will be cheaper as well
5, Hillary Lost
6, I cant think of a reason 6 just yet.
7, Hillary Lost

so there you go, its not all bad.