Saturday, April 15, 2017

Is the Conservative lead 21% or 9%?

There are two opinion polls out for Easter Weekend. Opinium’s poll for the Observer shows a Conservative lead of only - only! - nine percentage points and therefore the gap between the two main parties dropping into single figures for the first time in more than two months, while the ComRes poll for the Independent and Sunday Mirror has it increasing to 21 percentage points, the biggest lead for a Tory government since September 1987.

Opinion polls are not perfect and the gap between these two illustrates the point, though they are better than relying on anecdotal evidence.

My personal view is that the real Conservative lead is probably rather more than 9% but rather less than 21%.

There is an excellent article by Matt Singh of Number Cruncher Politics on the differences between the two polls which you can read here.

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