COVID-19 and the economy

Yesterday’s OBR report on the impact of coronavirus on our economy is a stark warning which underlines the importance of the unprecedented measures the government has put in place to protect people, businesses and jobs.
  • It is clear the coronavirus will have a significant impact on our economy, in common with economies around the world. Britain came into this crisis with a fundamentally sound economy, so although the economic impacts are significant, the OBR also expects them to be temporary with a bounce back in growth.
     
  • Realising that it was necessary to protect the economy, the government has put in place an unprecedented package of support to mitigate the impact of the virus on the economy; protecting millions of jobs, businesses and households – and, as the OBR report notes, without the actions we have taken, the impact would have been much worse.
     
  • The single most important thing we can do for the health of our economy is to protect the health of our people. So it is essential that we all follow a scientific backed step-by-step action plan to slow the spread and protect our NHS.
     
  • Hence the OBR analysis emphases the need to follow the government’s guidance to stay home, protect the NHS and save lives.

Comments

Jim said…
The economy is of course going to take a huge hit, that much is certain, and it was unavoidable. Yes, there are mitigations in place which have helped, however, it is in an unsustainable position. The current restrictions can not go on indefinitely whilst we wait for more favourable conditions to magically appear. We need to look to create these more favorable conditions and need to have a strategy to enable us to get there. An exit strategy (oh God, are we in like a time loop of 4-5 years? 😊 )

Right so this time we have a start in that the director general of the WHO has told us where we (or at least where the WHO think we) need to be, its here

the points, which is much better than the media focusing on the single point of when we get a dip in the daily death rate, that isn’t really the daily death rate, but a mix of the previous 5-6 days reported deaths, which is then not inclusive of the none hospital deaths.

No we have these to work with instead.

”First, that transmission is controlled”
so we need to have in place our social distance rules
”Second, that sufficient public health and medical services are available”
This is not only a bed in hospital for whoever needs it, it also means we need to test, isolate and treat people with Covid 19 and trace their contacts.
”Third, that outbreak risks in special settings like long-term care facilities are minimized”
Its great to hear we have tests available for care home settings, as these are one of the most likely reservoirs for the trigger of a the second wave.
”Fourth, that preventive measures are in place in workplaces, schools and other places where it’s essential for people to go”
Here Is where things like continuing home working come in, but, allowing more of those who can’t work from home to get back to work, a plan to get kids to school.
Fifth, that importation risks can be managed
Its going to take time to get our travel plans finalised, so we need to know how and when we can open up to travel again.

And sixth – and I cannot over-emphasize this point – that communities are fully aware and engaged in the transition. Every single person has a role to play in ending this pandemic.

This is exactly why we need to publish an exit strategy it informs people and engages them, how on Earth can people play their role in ending the pandemic, if they don’t have a clue what that role is?

Certainly a far more noble approach than sitting back and waiting for more favourable conditions to magically appear, out of fear of a bored journalist wanting to shout “U turn”
Chris Whiteside said…
1) I entirely agree with those six points.

2) Nobody is "sitting round waiting for more favourable conditions to magically appear."

Just about everyone in the country is making huge sacrifices to try to create more favourable conditions.

3) Yes, the plan should be published as soon as there can be a reasonable degree of confidence that it bears at least some resemblance to what will actually be implemented.

4) While there is still great uncertainty about when it will be possible to relax things and how rapidly, publishing a plan which might well end up bearing little resemblance to what eventually happens could easily be counterproductive rather than helpful.

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