Lockdown diary, day 54
We need to be very careful not to get complacent about the fact that deaths from COVID-19 appear to be trending down
The figures which come through on Sundays and Monday are always lower due to speed of processing information at the weekend, but on a comparable basis, the daily figure announced today for those who have sadly lost their lives after tested positive for COVID-19 which was 170, is the lowest since the day after the lockdown and a hundred fewer than the same time the previous week.
Probably the most reliable measure of the next impact of COVID-19 in terms of extra deaths caused directly or indirectly by the pandemic is the difference between excess deaths from all causes compared with normal for the time of year. The last set of figures I have seen of that measure were published by the FT five days ago and used ONS mortality figures up to the week ending 1st May.
These show clearly that although the severity of the problem differs in different parts of the UK, with London the worst affected, excess deaths have spiked in every part of the country at about the time COVID-19 began to really impact the number of fatalities, peaked in mid to late April, and then started to fall sharply in the last part of the month.
The above graph is for the various regions of the UK, here is a chart showing total deaths each week in England and wales compared with the average of the previous five years:
Good news that we have passed a peak but this is not over. And that FT headline should really refer to the first peak.
We really do need to stay alert, both as a country and as individuals: as I have repeatedly written, it is my understanding that ever major pandemic in history ahs had more than one wave and although we can and should try to stop that happening we cannot assume we will succeed.
It is more likely that the best we can do will be to minimise the number of deaths in subsequent waves.
The evidence supports the view that we can try to ease things a bit and help the economy - but there are no grounds for complacency.
Keep well.
The figures which come through on Sundays and Monday are always lower due to speed of processing information at the weekend, but on a comparable basis, the daily figure announced today for those who have sadly lost their lives after tested positive for COVID-19 which was 170, is the lowest since the day after the lockdown and a hundred fewer than the same time the previous week.
Probably the most reliable measure of the next impact of COVID-19 in terms of extra deaths caused directly or indirectly by the pandemic is the difference between excess deaths from all causes compared with normal for the time of year. The last set of figures I have seen of that measure were published by the FT five days ago and used ONS mortality figures up to the week ending 1st May.
These show clearly that although the severity of the problem differs in different parts of the UK, with London the worst affected, excess deaths have spiked in every part of the country at about the time COVID-19 began to really impact the number of fatalities, peaked in mid to late April, and then started to fall sharply in the last part of the month.
Good news that we have passed a peak but this is not over. And that FT headline should really refer to the first peak.
We really do need to stay alert, both as a country and as individuals: as I have repeatedly written, it is my understanding that ever major pandemic in history ahs had more than one wave and although we can and should try to stop that happening we cannot assume we will succeed.
It is more likely that the best we can do will be to minimise the number of deaths in subsequent waves.
The evidence supports the view that we can try to ease things a bit and help the economy - but there are no grounds for complacency.
On a completely different issue, I am going to have to check if I am programming blogger wrongly - this weekend's posts have been at worst completely disappearing or in other instances coming up at completely different times to when they were scheduled to appear.
Apologies if the blog has appeared to go quiet just as it was coming up to the traffic milestone of one and three quarter million pageviews (likely to be hit some time tomorrow morning!)
Keep well.
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