Impasse?

There are four possible outcomes to the febrile arguments taking place in Westminster about Brexit, none of which is anywhere near to commanding majority support either amongst MPs or, if the polls are anything to go by, in the country.

1) Signing up to the Prime Minister's draft deal with the EU
2) Leaving the EU with no deal
3) Calling another referendum
4) Abandoning Brexit without a referendum.

The EU, who are as exhausted with the whole business as Britain is, have indicated that they are not interested in renegotiating the deal, and I think we have to recognise the probability that this really is their position and not just  a negotiating ploy. So I don't think "try to renegotiate a better deal" is an option open to the UK parliament.

Even if the EU were willing, despite what they currently say, to renegotiate the deal, there cannot possibly be there to negotiate and implement a completely new deal before Britain leaves the EU on the existing article 50 timetable at the end of March. That particularly applies to those who want to change Prime Minister and then renegotiate, because either the General Election which Labour say they want or the Conservative leadership election which the ERG are calling for would take weeks.

So we would have to ask the EU for an extension to the Article 50 deadline. Under the rules any one of the 27 other member states could veto that and I strongly suspect somebody would do so. I just  cannot see renegotiation working.

Which brings us back to the four options above.

On the face of it the parliamentary arithmetic looks very bad for the Prime Minister's deal. But the difficulty is that nobody knows what happens if her deal is voted down.

If the May deal cannot get through parliament, and nothing else gets through either, then Britain automatically leaves the EU without a deal at the end of March.

I dare say most of the European Reform Group would be happy with that outcome, but those MPs who want this result are not in the majority even among those Conservative parliamentarians who voted for Brexit, let alone in the House of Commons as a whole. In fact I doubt if they number ten percent of MPs.

Is it possible that the other 90% of MPs could force another referendum or cancel Brexit altogether if the alternative was crashing out with no deal? I don't know but I certainly wouldn't bet the farm against it.

I think another referendum would be horrendously divisive, even more than the last one, generate even more anger, and might well not produce a different result. The Leave side would be in full "The establishment and the EU are trying to cheat the voters" mode, the Remain side determined to prove they were right the first time, the whole thing a massive grudge match. In my humble opinion it would be a very bad idea, and I get the impression that the majority of MPs think so too.

Cancelling Brexit with no referendum, especially without cover from a general election mandate, would also be extremely divisive and poison British politics for decades.

But if the May deal were voted down, and the alternative to another referendum was leaving with no deal some of those MPs who would otherwise have been prepared to vote for Brexit, but not for a "no deal" Brexit,  might ending up voting for another referendum as the least worst option.

(For the avoidance of doubt, I would not support that course of action. But others might.)

Hence Tim Montgomerie, who is a staunch Brexit supporter, has backed the deal, arguing here that in his view,

"While inadequate, the Withdrawal Agreement does put us on a road to controlling our borders as well as our agricultural and fishing policies. Once the elongated transition period is over the Treasury will have billions of extra pounds to spend on the NHS and other national priorities. Britain will have escaped the conveyor belt to “ever closer union” that defines the EU project."

 
It is also within the bounds of possibility that some MPs on the Remain/soft Brexit side of the scales who don't like the May deal but don't think they can stop Brexit, and regard leaving with no deal as the worst possible outcome, could end up holding their noses and voting for the deal to avoid that outcome. 

I don't think anyone can be certain which way this impasse is going to break.

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