Friday, November 01, 2019

Many a true word

The "NewsThump" satirical site has a post

"Nigel Farage announces plan to ensure the Leave vote is completely split."

It suggests that "The Brexit Party will stand in all parliamentary seats at the forthcoming election to ensure the Leave vote is split and Brexit doesn’t actually happen, they have confirmed this morning." 

and adds that party leader Nigel Farage told party members that

“If the UK were ever to actually leave the EU, then the publicity and grievance-money which I love so much would dry up completely,”


“I’ve had a solid twenty years on the rebel gravy train and I’m damned if I’m going to let Boris Johnson ruin that now by getting me what I say I want."

Sometimes telling the difference between truth and satire can be quite difficult.


This is what Tom Peck of the Independent wrote about the Brexit party campaign launch illustrating the point about how hard it can be to tell mainstream journalism from satire:

Of course, nobody knows exactly what the impact of the Brexit party standing will be.

Received wisdom from many journalists is that they may split the Brexit vote and perversely help stop Brexit. 

If the Brexit party take more votes from the Conservatives than Labour they could indeed let Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street and prevent Britain leaving the EU. And the Brexit party does appear to have had such an impact in the Peterborough and the Brecon and Radnorshire by-elections, handing the seats respectively to Remain candidates from the Labour and Lib/Dem parties.

However, there are a certain cohort of voters who have in the past been strongly Labour but are strongly pro-Leave and don't like Labour's attempts to sabotage Brexit. Some of those voters could never bring themselves to vote Conservative but might consider voting for the Brexit party.

If the Brexit party detach more Leave voters of that kind from the Labour party, especially in marginal seats, than the number of voters they detach from the Conservatives in those seats, the result could be to help, not hinder, the Conservatives.

There are two articles suggesting how this possibility could work, a humorous sketch from Tom Peck here and a serious one from Jon Stone here on The Independent's website.

We live in interesting times!


Anonymous said...

Time to get real and Ditch the Deal

Chris Whiteside said...

Ability to rhyme and scan: 10/10
Presentation of anything resembling an argument: 0/10.

With all due respect I am reminded of the quote from H.L. Mencken:

"For every complex problem there is an answer which is clear, simple and wrong."