Comparing Peter Kellner's "What would success look like" table with results to date:

This is the current numbers of councillors elected and net gains and losses, with results from 12 of 136 councils declared (so thirteen councils to go and numbers will rise slightly):










This is what Peter Kellner suggested a week ago would be the reaction of the parties to various results:










So with a few councils to go, the Conservatives have passed the level Peter Kellner thought would be "Relief," 

Labour, the Lib/Dems and Greens are respectively just on, a little above, or a little below what he suggested would be "Disappointment."

And Reform have not quite hit the number of gains Peter Kellner marked down as "Disaster."

Kellner himself admitted that in a normal year these assessments would be ridiculous, but this is NOT a normal year,

There have been enough Conservative holds - and a few quite significant gains - that I think "Relief" is a pretty accurate assessment of the reaction of most Conservatives. It could have been so much worse. And if the polls had accurately predicted the Conservative vote share, it probably would have been. Instead Conservative candidates outperformed the polls by an average of 6%.

Labour have lost well over 1,200 seats, and I am quite sure they will be disappointed. The Lib Dems and Greens have both had some victories and gains, but they will indeed be disappointed not to have made more - and to have underperformed their current polling.

The one party who will not only publicly but genuinely completely disagree with Peter Kellner's assessment will be Reform UK who will find it completely incomprehensible that only gaining 1,377 seats, which on paper is the second largest net gain of councillors in a single day's local elections in history, could be seen by anyone as a disaster rather than a triumph.

And they will have a point. But so has Peter Kellner. Compared to where they were in the polls and that year's local elections twelve months ago, Reform has gone backwards. Significantly.

Reform are still in a stronger position than most of us would have imagined possible five years ago. But they are not nailed on to win in 2029.

There are still three years to go to the general election and everything to play for.

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