Luke Tyle of More in Common on how parties are doing compared with the polls

Luke Tyle of he pollster "More in Common" has published a chart on witter showing how the five main parties performed in yesterday's local elections on results declared by 8.25 am this morning  compared to the current opinion polls.

It shows the Conservatives outperforming the polls by about 6%, and Reform UK by about 3%, while Labour scored about what you might expect from the opinion polls, the Greens underperformed by about 2% and the Lib/Dems underperformed by about 5%.











All the parties seem to have done well in particular places with excellent results for the Conservatives not just in traditional areas of strength such as Westminster, where the party took back overall control from Labour, and Wandsworth where seats regained from Labour have again made the Conservatives the largest party, but also places like Harlow council, which I remember as a former Labour stronghold although the Conservatives have been running it in the recent past. Reform UK were claiming they expected to gain all eleven seats up in Harlow, but in fact the Conservatives gained or held all eleven. 

Despite the above table, the Lib/Dems have had good results in some areas such as Richmond on Thames and Sutton.

Labour have had a dire night, though there have been places where they held on.

Source for the table:

 Luke Tryl on X: "Still lots of results to come in, but comparing the swing in local election results since 22 & swing implied by the polling average, it looks like the Tories are overperforming by about totally, Reform by 3, Labour on track, Greens underperforming and Lib Dems underperforming. https://t.co/gIWP8B0cWb" / X

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Nick Herbert on his visit to flood hit areas of Cumbria

Please note that the post below was published more than ten years ago on 21st November 2009 Nick Herbert MP, shadow cabinet member for the Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs, was in Cumbria this morning to see the areas affected by the flooding. He writes on Conservative Home about his visit. Here is an extract. I’ve been in Cumbria today to see the areas affected by the floods. I arrived early in Keswick where I met officials from the Environment Agency. Although the river levels had fallen considerably and homes were no longer flooded, the damage to homes had been done. And the water which had got into houses wasn’t just from the river – it was foul water which had risen from the drains. I talked to fire crews who were pumping flood water back into the river, and discovered that they were from Tyne & Wear and Lancashire. They had been called in at an hours’ notice and had been working on the scene ever since, staying at a local hotel. You cannot fail to be impressed by th...
Read more

Quotes of the day 19th August 2020

Image
"Wise men profit more from fools than fools from wise men; for the wise men shun the mistakes of fools, but fools do not imitate the successes of the wise."  ( Cato the Elder , who lived 234 BC - 149 BC, quoted in "Lives" by Plutarch.) There is a similar saying by Germany's Iron Chancellor, Otto von Bismarck: Benjamin Franklin is supposed to have put the same saying in a more humorous form: "Wise men profit by the mistakes of others, while fools will not learn even from their own blunders." See also this thread on the "Quote Investigator" website . Let us all be wise and learn from the events of the last few days.
Read more

Quote of the day 24th July 2020

I was moved to put the passage below forward as a quote today when I saw a horrible post on twitter from someone writing that it was "excellent" that someone who took a different view from her about Brexit had died. I won't write which way round it was so that all the Remain supporters can assume the post was from a Brexit fanatic welcoming the death of a remainer and all the Leavers can assume it was a Remainiac welcoming one less Brexiteer. There's been plenty of nasty stuff on both sides but if you catch anyone of your own viewpoint  posting something like that who might listen to you, please do call them out on it - and point out that they're giving everyone on your side of the argument a bad name. Anyway, here's the quote from John Donne.
Read more