National Vote Shares

I am not a huge fan of using local elections as a measure of the strength of national political parties instead of a mechanism for picking the best people to run local services.

I am convinced that local services would be run far better and people would have a higher quality of life if they more often voted for the person who would make the best local councillor instead of using the local elections to reward or punish whoever is in government.

But if people ARE going to use the local elections as a guide to the state of the parties, they might as well be given the right information to do it.

There have been a lot of misleading posts on social media about the "National Equivalent Vote" shares, many of them based on preliminary or out of date numbers, or just made up!


These are the final / definitive figures (via @EdConwaySky) 👇


Reform 27%

Conservatives 20%

Labour 15%

Greens 14%

LibDem 14%

Other 10%

Comments

Jim said…
i totally agree with you on the local elections = local councillors thing, I co-wrote the Harrogate agenda and that is actually its 2nd "demand". so yes that works

However, nationally, I would just like to add that I see labour are now turning to blaming the "pace of change not being fast enough" for their dismal performance.

Though i think its more likely, if they actually just STOP do no more "change" for the rest of this parliament, instead just "undid every change so far", I am willing to bet their polling figures would actually increase, a lot.
3:51 pm
Chris Whiteside said…
Quite. I agree with that - in particular, it would probably help if they stopped breaking election promises.

They accused Rishi Sunak of lying when he said they would put taxes up for everyone - then they broke their promise not to put up National Insurance and raised taxes on everyone.
They promised to look after pensioners then means tested the Winter Fuel Allowance, taking it away from most pensioners including some who are far from wealthy.
Starmer promised when he stood for election as Labour Leader to abolish tuition fees for students - as PM he has increased them.
Labour promised farmers quite explicitly not to touch the IHT exemption and then broke that promise and introduced the family farm tax.
They promised a more honest government and then accepted gifts all over the place from the likes of Lord Ali, everything from free glasses to free suits.
They promised an end to Tory Psychodrama and instead gave us even more Labour Psychodrama.

Then they wonder why voters turn to other parties and candidates - including some who I find deeply worrying.
9:52 am
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