TWELVE DAYS TO GO AND STILL TOO CLOSE TO CALL.


The general and local elections are twelve days away today. I cannot recall at any time in my adult life being this close to a General election and there being so much uncertainty about what was likely to happen.

That applies both nationally to the general election and here in Copeland where Labour are certain to lose seats because they have not put up as many candidates - a hung council is a real possibility and I think any of the three candidates to be directly-elected mayor have a chance of winning.

I do remember one occasion when at this distance from an election nearly everyone thought it was going to go one way, and in the event it went the other - that was 1992. Of course, for that very reason people are more aware that the outcome of an election may be different from what the polls appeared to predict.

I say "Appeared to predict" because, of course, an opinion poll is NOT a prediction of an election result. It is a snapshot giving an indication of what might have happened if the election were the day after the poll. But it isn't, and people can and often do change their minds between the opinion poll fieldwork and the actual election.

Because this election appears likely to be so close, and because of the unclear impact of several previously small parties which may get a bigger vote share this time than in the past on the vote shares of the leading parties, there is much more uncertainty this time than usual. The chances of a result in which either the Conservatives or Labour do significantly better than the polls appeared to suggest is very real and it could go in either direction.

The one outcome which I think you can rule out is a landslide win for any party. A slim Conservative majority is still a possibility. My gut instincts are that for Labour to win an overall majority from the present situation is unlikely, but they could end up as the largest party in terms of seats - possibly without being the largest party in terms of votes. The most likely outcome appears to be another hung parliament - but what sort of hung parliament is entirely open at this stage.

It really could go either way - which means that every vote counts and there is everything to play for.

Comments

Jim said…
It looks it, but I think there is a lot of "shy tory voters" out there, also I think there are a lot of "shy Kippers"

I think it will be more of a 1992 again, everyone said they would not vote tory, but in the end they did.

I think we are headed that way again. People wont tell the pollsters, but they will vote conservative in the end for damage limitation.

People realise you cant spend your way out of debt, so they are runnning away from lab/snp. SNP will storm scotland, but i cant see that labour will take so many south of the border.

you know how people buy into the idea of "i drank myself sober" - its an often used quote that, and people sort of buy into it, but in reality no one tries it and no one has ever done it. its the same with "spending your way out of debt" - yes its a nice thought, but no one really buys it. so those that do turn out will not fall for it when push comes to shove.
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