Sunday, September 25, 2016

As Labour conference begins, the problem for Corbyn

Last year it was Conservative conference where you felt you needed protection from people shouting "Tory scum" and worse, spitting and throwing eggs at everyone on their way in - including journalists, cleaners, catering staff and porters as well as Conservatives.

This year it seems the people responsible for causing mayhem outside our conference may be causing some at their own: apparently at least one Labour MP is taking a bodyguard to the conference.

Two people, one Scottish Nationalist and one Corbynista, have expressed the view to me that because they have more support among younger people their respective causes are bound to eventually win. The first problem with this view is that people's perspective changes as they get older - I will resist the temptation to endorse the patronising way of putting that, "as they grow up."

The second problem is that this view overstates Corbyn's support even among young voters. Thanks to Mike Smithson for this data of where he stands in each age bracket compared with the PM:





































His support may be least weak among younger voters, but he isn't actually winning even with them. Let alone with the voters in the age groups who are most likely to actually vote.

And as Iain Martin points out here, the policies Corbyn has been unveiling on the Marr show today and elsewhere read like a Tory election strategists' fantasy of what the sort of Labour party they would like to be up against.

Some Corbyn supporters imagine that Conservatives are afraid of their man. In most cases this is not true and they are bouncing up and down with delight because he has been re-elected Labour leader.

And in the case of the minority of Conservatives like myself who are not pleased about Corbyn's re-election it is not because we are afraid of him. The only fear he inspires is that the totally useless opposition he will lead will fail to keep our own party on our toes, might make our party arrogant or complacent and thereby be bad for the country.

1 comment:

Jim said...

Corbyn is actually very dangerous at the moment, and I think this is why.

You see people are now so utterly sick to death of the political class that there is a possibility of using Labour as a "protest" vote. Well if you are going to die, you may as well do it quickly.

It is at this point a remote possibility, but i can see it growing.