Brexit - what happens now
So the EU council has agreed
1) an unconditional extension of the Article 50 date until 12th April
2) If the deal passes, an extension until 22nd May to pass the necessary legislation.
Which means Britain will not be leaving the EU on 29th March.
it seems likely that there will be one pf four outcomes:
A) DEAL.
If the deal gets through the House of Commons at the third attempt, Britain leaves on 22nd May with a deal.
If the deal doesn't get through then that part of the House of Commons which is adamantly opposed to a "No Deal" Brexit have until 12th April to force through either a revocation of Article 50 - which I don't think they have the votes for - or a credible plan for an alternative deal which will persuade the EU to grant a longer extension.
B) NO DEAL.
If the deal falls and the "No to no Deal" lobby fail to force an alternative through, Britain leaves on 12th April with no withdrawal agreement in place.
This cannot be entirely ruled out and is presumably what any Brexit supporter who votes against the deal next week must be hoping for, but I think the odds are that they are seriously miscalculating, because the opponents of "No Deal" clearly have a majority of votes in the House of Commons.
The question is whether they have a clear alternative to unite behind - one option is described in an article by Stephen Bush here - and whether they can get organised in time. (Bush thinks that a "Norway 2.0" option has more chance than anything else including May's deal of getting a majority in the Commons, but even that he thinks would be "tight.")
C) REVOKE.
The Deal falls and the "Remain" faction in the House of Commons manage to revoke Article 50 before 12th April. In this case Britain will not leave the EU within two years, and will probably never leave.
Despite all the people signing petitions for it, I think this is the least likely outcome because I think a majority of MPs realise that it would be seen as a massive breach of faith with the electorate, both in terms of ignoring the referendum result and breaking the promises on which the great majority of MPs were elected to respect that referendum result.
D) DELAY.
The deal fails and the "Soft Brexit" faction manage to put forward a proposal for an alternative deal which persuades the EU to grant a further extension beyond 12th April. This could result in anything from a Norway style "soft Brexit" this year, a longer delay followed by an eventual "soft Brexit" or no Brexit at all.
The worst thing about this option is it means yet more uncertainty, yet more months of arguing, and yet more oxygen sucked by Brexit away from all the other issues Britain needs to address. If the deal goes down and this is where we end up it will almost certainly mean a softer Brexit than May's deal - my concern is that we might end up not with a decent compromise but the worst of all worlds and both Leave and Remain voters feeling cheated.
At the moment I look at each of these four options and I think "That's not likely to happen." But one of them must.
If I were an MP I would vote for the deal. It is not perfect but it meets 80% of what Leave promised during the referendum campaign without damaging the UK economy in the way that a "No Deal" Brexit, in my opinion, would.
1) an unconditional extension of the Article 50 date until 12th April
2) If the deal passes, an extension until 22nd May to pass the necessary legislation.
Which means Britain will not be leaving the EU on 29th March.
it seems likely that there will be one pf four outcomes:
A) DEAL.
If the deal gets through the House of Commons at the third attempt, Britain leaves on 22nd May with a deal.
If the deal doesn't get through then that part of the House of Commons which is adamantly opposed to a "No Deal" Brexit have until 12th April to force through either a revocation of Article 50 - which I don't think they have the votes for - or a credible plan for an alternative deal which will persuade the EU to grant a longer extension.
B) NO DEAL.
If the deal falls and the "No to no Deal" lobby fail to force an alternative through, Britain leaves on 12th April with no withdrawal agreement in place.
This cannot be entirely ruled out and is presumably what any Brexit supporter who votes against the deal next week must be hoping for, but I think the odds are that they are seriously miscalculating, because the opponents of "No Deal" clearly have a majority of votes in the House of Commons.
The question is whether they have a clear alternative to unite behind - one option is described in an article by Stephen Bush here - and whether they can get organised in time. (Bush thinks that a "Norway 2.0" option has more chance than anything else including May's deal of getting a majority in the Commons, but even that he thinks would be "tight.")
Because it is not impossible that opponents of leaving the EU without a deal may fail to agree on an alternative plan in time to force it through, there is a small chance that "No Deal" could win by default, though now it would be on 12th April rather than 29th March.
Hence, although Brexit supporters who vote against the deal are taking a huge risk, so are opponents of a "no deal" Brexit. If the deal does finally go down next week one of the two groups who voted it down will have made a catastrophic misjudgement.
C) REVOKE.
The Deal falls and the "Remain" faction in the House of Commons manage to revoke Article 50 before 12th April. In this case Britain will not leave the EU within two years, and will probably never leave.
Despite all the people signing petitions for it, I think this is the least likely outcome because I think a majority of MPs realise that it would be seen as a massive breach of faith with the electorate, both in terms of ignoring the referendum result and breaking the promises on which the great majority of MPs were elected to respect that referendum result.
D) DELAY.
The deal fails and the "Soft Brexit" faction manage to put forward a proposal for an alternative deal which persuades the EU to grant a further extension beyond 12th April. This could result in anything from a Norway style "soft Brexit" this year, a longer delay followed by an eventual "soft Brexit" or no Brexit at all.
The worst thing about this option is it means yet more uncertainty, yet more months of arguing, and yet more oxygen sucked by Brexit away from all the other issues Britain needs to address. If the deal goes down and this is where we end up it will almost certainly mean a softer Brexit than May's deal - my concern is that we might end up not with a decent compromise but the worst of all worlds and both Leave and Remain voters feeling cheated.
At the moment I look at each of these four options and I think "That's not likely to happen." But one of them must.
If I were an MP I would vote for the deal. It is not perfect but it meets 80% of what Leave promised during the referendum campaign without damaging the UK economy in the way that a "No Deal" Brexit, in my opinion, would.
Comments
Sadly I do not think it will be offered. Neither party is in a good state to contest a general election at the moment. What would their policy on Europe be?
You will gather that I support Brexit but have little confidence in the current minority government or the current parliamentary membership. That is not a party point I'm making but an observation based on what we have experienced since the last referendum.
Unwinding our 40+ years of membership was never going to be easy.
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Unfortunately an unwillingness on many sides to compromise has made it all the more challenging.