Did Brexit die tonight?
The evening MPs had the opportunity to vote for a deal which would have taken Britain out of the European union.
It was defeated by an unholy alliance of hardliners - some who are unreconstructed remainders who do not want to respect the referendum result and hardliners who claim to support Brexit but only in such a pure form that they appear not to care if they bring the whole project down.
One of those two groups shafted their own cause this evening. There is a small but real possibility that extreme opponents of Brexit have accidentally sent Britain down a path which will lead to a "No Deal" Brexit. There is a rather larger possibility that people who claim to be the true defenders of Brexit have sent Britain down a path which leads to a significantly softer Brexit or to no Brexit at all.
There is one thing, and one alone, in this whole infuriating situation which is absolutely certain. And that is that the hardline Remainers who voted down the deal tonight because they wanted a softer Brexit or no Brexit at all, and the Brexit true believers who voted it down because they wanted a harder Brexit, cannot both be right about the consequences of their votes.
History will record that one of these two groups which voted in the same division lobby has brought about the opposite of what they said they were voting for.
What the deal would have achieved
MPs had previously said that changes with legal force were needed to the backstop – and that had been achieved.
The improved deal has a new, legally binding commitment, with comparable legal weight to the Withdrawal Agreement, that the EU cannot try to apply the backstop permanently. The UK could ultimately suspend the backstop if they did.
The legally binding text also says the UK and EU will work on Alternative Arrangements to replace the backstop by December 2020, so the backstop need never come into force. The United Kingdom Government will make a Unilateral Declaration that if the backstop ever comes into use, and discussions on our future relationship break down so that there is no prospect of subsequent agreement, it is the position of the UK that that there would be nothing to prevent us instigating measures that would ultimately dis-apply the backstop.
What happens now?
The honest answer is that nobody knows.
Tomorrow the House of Commons will vote on the possibility of a "No Deal" or WTO Brexit. Conservative MPs will have a free vote on this with no pressure from the whips in either direction.
I confidently predict that the Commons will vote against this proposal, and they would have done so regardless of whether Theresa May had tried to "whip" Conservatives in either direction.
That makes it likely that there will then be a vote to ask the other EU countries for a short delay to Brexit. Under Article 50 this can only happen if there is the unanimous agreement of the other 27 countries, so don't bet your shirt that the answer will be yes.
It is far from impossible that, despite a large majority against a "no deal" Brexit in the House of Commons, those who do not want this outcome will fail to agree on and implement an alternative solution before the current or extended Article 50 deadline runs out and Britain crashes out without a deal.
If that happens the Brexiteers will have the last laugh and the Remainder have shafted themselves this evening. In that event there will be a great deal of anger aimed at those who have secured a result which most MPs think will be bad for Britain, but Remainers who voted against the deal tonight will be every bit as much to blame,
It is much more likely that the ultimate result of tonight's vote will be a "softer" Brexit than was on offer this evening, or no Brexit at all. If that happens, Brexit died tonight at the hands of those who claim to be its strongest champions.
It is even possible that the deal will be put to the vote again and get through on the third or fourth attempt. In which case tonight's apparently momentous vote was just sound and fury signifying nothing, except for more uncertainty and delay for British business.
It was defeated by an unholy alliance of hardliners - some who are unreconstructed remainders who do not want to respect the referendum result and hardliners who claim to support Brexit but only in such a pure form that they appear not to care if they bring the whole project down.
One of those two groups shafted their own cause this evening. There is a small but real possibility that extreme opponents of Brexit have accidentally sent Britain down a path which will lead to a "No Deal" Brexit. There is a rather larger possibility that people who claim to be the true defenders of Brexit have sent Britain down a path which leads to a significantly softer Brexit or to no Brexit at all.
There is one thing, and one alone, in this whole infuriating situation which is absolutely certain. And that is that the hardline Remainers who voted down the deal tonight because they wanted a softer Brexit or no Brexit at all, and the Brexit true believers who voted it down because they wanted a harder Brexit, cannot both be right about the consequences of their votes.
History will record that one of these two groups which voted in the same division lobby has brought about the opposite of what they said they were voting for.
What the deal would have achieved
MPs had previously said that changes with legal force were needed to the backstop – and that had been achieved.
The improved deal has a new, legally binding commitment, with comparable legal weight to the Withdrawal Agreement, that the EU cannot try to apply the backstop permanently. The UK could ultimately suspend the backstop if they did.
The legally binding text also says the UK and EU will work on Alternative Arrangements to replace the backstop by December 2020, so the backstop need never come into force. The United Kingdom Government will make a Unilateral Declaration that if the backstop ever comes into use, and discussions on our future relationship break down so that there is no prospect of subsequent agreement, it is the position of the UK that that there would be nothing to prevent us instigating measures that would ultimately dis-apply the backstop.
The government had listened to the concerns expressed by MPs, and secured legally binding commitments to ensure that the backstop cannot become permanent.
This improved deal delivers on the decision taken by the British people to leave the EU.
- It means we would regain control of our laws, by ending the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice in the UK.
- We regain control of our borders, by ending free movement.
- We regain control of our money, by ending vast annual payments to the EU.
- It means the end of the Common Agricultural Policy and the Common Fisheries Police for British farmers and fishermen.
- We can pursue our own independent trade policy.
- And the deal sets us on course for a good future relationship with our friends and allies in the EU – a close economic partnership that would be good for business.
What happens now?
The honest answer is that nobody knows.
Tomorrow the House of Commons will vote on the possibility of a "No Deal" or WTO Brexit. Conservative MPs will have a free vote on this with no pressure from the whips in either direction.
I confidently predict that the Commons will vote against this proposal, and they would have done so regardless of whether Theresa May had tried to "whip" Conservatives in either direction.
That makes it likely that there will then be a vote to ask the other EU countries for a short delay to Brexit. Under Article 50 this can only happen if there is the unanimous agreement of the other 27 countries, so don't bet your shirt that the answer will be yes.
It is far from impossible that, despite a large majority against a "no deal" Brexit in the House of Commons, those who do not want this outcome will fail to agree on and implement an alternative solution before the current or extended Article 50 deadline runs out and Britain crashes out without a deal.
If that happens the Brexiteers will have the last laugh and the Remainder have shafted themselves this evening. In that event there will be a great deal of anger aimed at those who have secured a result which most MPs think will be bad for Britain, but Remainers who voted against the deal tonight will be every bit as much to blame,
It is much more likely that the ultimate result of tonight's vote will be a "softer" Brexit than was on offer this evening, or no Brexit at all. If that happens, Brexit died tonight at the hands of those who claim to be its strongest champions.
It is even possible that the deal will be put to the vote again and get through on the third or fourth attempt. In which case tonight's apparently momentous vote was just sound and fury signifying nothing, except for more uncertainty and delay for British business.
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