Iain Martin's message to his fellow brexiteers
It has been obvious for months that there is a large majority in the House of Commons against a "No deal" Brexit. The only surprise about last night's vote was that it was so narrow. (a winning margin of
four votes.)
The vote today to request a short delay to Brexit was even less of a surprise, but it is far from certain that the necessary unanimous agreement of the other 27 EU member states
The fact that the vote was so narrow probably reflects the fact that there are quite a few MPs who really don't want a "No Deal" Brexit but understand enough about how negotiations work to realise that voting, even symbolically, to take that option off the table might further reduce Britain's negotiating leverage in Brussels.
There is still a material possibility that a "no deal" Brexit might happen by accident, but there is clearly a majority in parliament, probably a majority of a lot more than four in the House of Commons, who will vote to prevent that outcome if they can.
Ian Martin, who is a strong Leave supporter, had this message for his fellow Brexiteers:
"Get real Brexiteers – vote for the deal next week or see Article 50 revoked."
He argues:
"The purist position strikes me as quite obviously deeply dangerous, opening up the possibility of Article 50 being revoked and the Brexiteers relying on a populist, cleansing explosion sweeping away all the grinning Remainers who goad Leave voters.
It’s not that simple though. The die hard Brexiteers talk a lot about what the British people feel. History suggests they – the voters – can make fools of those predicting an uprising. They voted by a majority for Brexit but many might at an election shrug at the ditching of Brexit. Or a quarter will be furious, which is enough to let in a Labour party led by Marxist maniacs. Why roll the dice when a form of Brexit is there now to be taken?"
four votes.)
The vote today to request a short delay to Brexit was even less of a surprise, but it is far from certain that the necessary unanimous agreement of the other 27 EU member states
The fact that the vote was so narrow probably reflects the fact that there are quite a few MPs who really don't want a "No Deal" Brexit but understand enough about how negotiations work to realise that voting, even symbolically, to take that option off the table might further reduce Britain's negotiating leverage in Brussels.
There is still a material possibility that a "no deal" Brexit might happen by accident, but there is clearly a majority in parliament, probably a majority of a lot more than four in the House of Commons, who will vote to prevent that outcome if they can.
Ian Martin, who is a strong Leave supporter, had this message for his fellow Brexiteers:
"Get real Brexiteers – vote for the deal next week or see Article 50 revoked."
He argues:
"The purist position strikes me as quite obviously deeply dangerous, opening up the possibility of Article 50 being revoked and the Brexiteers relying on a populist, cleansing explosion sweeping away all the grinning Remainers who goad Leave voters.
It’s not that simple though. The die hard Brexiteers talk a lot about what the British people feel. History suggests they – the voters – can make fools of those predicting an uprising. They voted by a majority for Brexit but many might at an election shrug at the ditching of Brexit. Or a quarter will be furious, which is enough to let in a Labour party led by Marxist maniacs. Why roll the dice when a form of Brexit is there now to be taken?"
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